The United States handed over more than 2 million 155 mm shells to Ukraine and they need more

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: putnam6

The point is obvious the war will continue till the MIC gets tired of getting rich off resupplying shells

Ukraine is pissing through artillery shells and other ammo and systems and has hardly started evicting Russia from those Eastern oblasts or the Crimea, you know the stated objective.

At this rate, they will need 2 million artillery shells every 500 days till 2030 or so

Estimates say once they really have an offensive it will be over 9000 a day easily

Once an area is finally broken then things move swiftly. War is not inch by inch for 200 miles, it is inch by inch for a few then you gain huge chunks because there is no one in front of you anymore as the Russians then try to set up another line of defense. Also, this is a war of attrition and Russia is running out of things, and that will also push the FEBA very quickly.

Does the number 9000 bother you? Why?

I'm no military strategist, but where exactly can Ukraine mass enough troops to have such a breakthrough? An offensive breakthrough with limited to no air support,m with dwindling 155mm shells supplies

How many artillery shells would you expect an offensive breakthrough to need, if they are burning 4000-6000 a day now?
The US expects to get to 18,000 a month production by 2025, a year and a half away. Below is about the only optimistic breakthrough op-ed piece I've seen, even that is trying to parallel a WWII battle where there was allied air support, and it has the advantages of mountainous terrain, which isn't the case in Ukraine.

www.telegraph.co.uk...

www.cnn.com...

Weeks into Ukraine’s highly anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials describe increasingly “sobering” assessments about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake significant territory, four senior US and western officials briefed on the latest intelligence told CNN.

“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told CNN.

“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”

The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.

“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” said a senior Western diplomat. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard.”

A senior US official said the US recognizes the difficulties Ukrainian forces are facing, though retains hope for renewed progress.

2 million shells are easy to blow through during war .
(pun not intended)

originally posted by: putnam6


I'm no military strategist,

Most likely need to leave it right there...

Much of what Ukraine is launching is guided, unlike the Russians, so Ukraine is blowing Russian crap up while Russia is blowing up empty fields with unguided crap. The question isn't how long can Ukraine keep it up, the real question is what does Russia do when they run out of equipment.

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: putnam6


I'm no military strategist,

Most likely need to leave it right there...

Much of what Ukraine is launching is guided, unlike the Russians, so Ukraine is blowing Russian crap up while Russia is blowing up empty fields with unguided crap. The question isn't how long can Ukraine keep it up, the real question is what does Russia do when they run out of equipment.

The real question is why you seem full of opinions with no qualifications either as well as no links. Pretty much nothing but what you are pulling out of your azz. LOL, at least I admit I don't know, while you're hyping a Ukrainian phantom blitzkrieg offensive, where virtually every opinion, says we are looking at a stalemate.

But yea, again Rommel tell me how Ukraine sans air support makes a blitzkrieg run anywhere, much less through the vast minefields and entrenched Russian defenses, before winter?

I love for it to happen, lord it needs to happen or we will be caught in this billions of dollars boondoggle for 2-3 years minimum. Sooner or later somebody will get desperate and then we will see if we can keep it contained or not.

Since you can't or won't support your own argument for the sake of discussion let's review the ISW report in Time magazine. However, they don't foresee the hail-mary run for the border Generalisimo Xtrozero is predicting either. Just a slow methodical push they rely on Russia's morale to falter and defenses wilting as well as the arms, munitions, and funds spigot from the West continuing unabated

time.com...

The Ukrainian counteroffensive can succeed in any of several ways. First, the current Ukrainian mechanized breakthrough could succeed, and the Ukrainians could exploit it deeply enough to unhinge part or all of the Russian lines. Second, Russian forces, already suffering serious morale and other systemic problems, could break under the pressure and begin to withdraw in a controlled or uncontrolled fashion. Third, a steady pressure and interdiction campaign supported by major efforts such as the one now underway can generate gaps in the Russian lines that Ukrainian forces can exploit at first locally, but then for deeper penetrations. The first and second possibilities are relatively unlikely but possible.

The third is the most probable path to Ukrainian success.It will be slower and more gradual than the other two—and slower than Ukraine’s Western backers desire and expect. It depends on the West providing Ukraine with a constant flow of equipment likely over many months so that Ukraine can maintain its pressure until the Russian forces offer the kinds of frontline cracks the Ukrainians can exploit. It is not primarily a matter of attrition. The slow pace of the pressure campaign Ukraine had been using before July 26 is designed to minimize Ukrainian losses. It is not primarily oriented towards attriting Russians either, but rather towards steadily forcing the Russians out of their prepared defensive positions in ways that the Ukrainians can take advantage of to make operationally significant advances. It is still maneuver warfare rather than attritional warfare, just at a slower pace. It therefore requires patience, but it can succeed.

originally posted by: putnam6

The real question is why you seem full of opinions with no qualifications either as well as no links. Pretty much nothing but what you are pulling out of your azz. LOL, at least I admit I don't know, while you're hyping a Ukrainian phantom blitzkrieg offensive, where virtually every opinion, says we are looking at a stalemate.

Here is what they are using now as the standard on the low end, they have been also getting much better ones too with all being extremely effective, especially with drone scouts. The scouts find the equipment/people and then they can get a good location and it's pretty much over after that. They can even hit tanks on the go too. The Russians do have laser-guided ones, but they have limited supplies and non-guided is their main one. The laser-guided needs a laser on the target in some way and can be very accurate, but GPS guided is fire and forget without the need to have a constant laser on the target.

In mid-2005, United Defense demonstrated a cost-effective system to improve cannon artillery accuracy with the successful firing of inert M795 155mm projectiles equipped with a two-directional Course Correcting Fuze (CCF). United Defense developed this new system together with Bofors Defence, Rockwell Collins and BT Fuze Products.

Course correction uses GPS to provide high accuracy. It can be employed on all types of U.S. 155mm and 105mm projectiles in the U.S. Field Artillery inventory.

But yea, again Rommel tell me how Ukraine sans air support makes a blitzkrieg run anywhere, much less through the vast minefields and entrenched Russian defenses, before winter?

I love for it to happen, lord it needs to happen or we will be caught in this billions of dollars boondoggle for 2-3 years minimum. Sooner or later somebody will get desperate and then we will see if we can keep it contained or not.

I think this summer is not going to be some massive pushes as people want, but there will be slow gains until Winter. Next Spring you are going to see F-16s and other air support enter the battle. On a side note, we really do not know how much Russia has or where the FEMA will break if it does. It's not like every square foot is mined or manned, so if they break the hard lines of defense the next hard line might be 20 miles deeper. Remember what happened in Mykiolayiv where once they broke through the lines they took an area within days that was 50 by 100 miles or so.

The crazy part is they are making gains at all and not losing one town after another with what they have and really with what they have not.

As To my experience, I have 28 years of flying in the military and 16 years with military drones.