China Developing Hypersonic Swarms To Overwhelm Missile Defenses

a reply to: TheRedneck

Russia has always had amazing engineers, and when it was the Soviet Union they could keep their production under control. After the Soviet Union broke up, their production went to hell fast. Their production has always been their biggest weakness. They can design amazing systems, and come up with some seriously advanced technology, they just can't build it worth a damn. That's not to say they should be taken lightly, or that they couldn't hurt us in a stand up fight, but they still have a long way to go in their rebuilding process with their military. They've come a long way in a few years, but they still are only a few years ahead of where they were in 89 at this point in terms of readiness and capability.

The Chinese and Russian relationship is an interesting one. Most people think that they're forming a solid alliance, similar to what we see with NATO, when the reality is not nearly that simple. Russia isn't selling their best tech to China, because China has been known to buy a few, and then reverse engineer it and build their own, which then screws Russia.

The other big problem with the Russia-Chinese relationship and military sales, Russia is desperately trying to keep India as a customer. India is turning more to the West, and Russia desperately wants to limit that as much as they can. China signed a $3B deal for 36 S400 launchers in 2018, and have yet to take delivery of them. Supposedly it's because Russia doesn't want to do anything that could interfere with the Chinese pandemic response, since they have to send techs to China to set them up, but the more likely concern is that China may place them on the Indian border region. If China were to use them against India, it could turn India farther away from Russia.

originally posted by: AaarghZombies
a reply to: JohnnyAnonymous

Yet one more reason to stop this combative foreign policy. China dies not need to be an enemy. Most of what it does is a reaction to pressure put on it by the west. Like that huge great carrier battle group.

Just lay back and think of England eh?

a reply to: Zaphod58

Russia has always had amazing engineers, and when it was the Soviet Union they could keep their production under control. After the Soviet Union broke up, their production went to hell fast. Their production has always been their biggest weakness. They can design amazing systems, and come up with some seriously advanced technology, they just can't build it worth a damn.

That's it in a nutshell. Unlike China, Russia is still pretty individualistic in their cultural leanings. That's what finally caused the breakup of the USSR. Without capital to fuel that production, they are severely limited.

That's where the oil reserves come in. Russia is sitting on massive reserves, with most probably undiscovered even. Black Gold, enough to make them an economic superpower. The problem is they don't have a strong enough economy to get at it. It costs money to drill. China is a perfect partner to buy that oil, and that is the entire basis of the relationship.

Look at a global map of the Middle and Far East. China is bordered on the southwest by the Himalayan Mountain Range. Pipelines don't do well across large mountain ranges. To their south lies marshy lands, also difficult although no impossible by any means to construct pipelines across, and the countries there, like Myanamar (Burma) are undeveloped, cartel-run third world. To their east is water... just water. Their only access to oil is from the Persian Gulf via boat, and that boat must travel through the Malaysia/Phillipine area. That was tightly controlled by Western forces during WWII, meaning that in another, similar war it is also expected to be tightly controlled.

But to their north lies Russia, with the possibility of ground-based pipelines accessing almost unlimited oil reserves. China needs that oil supply.

China's one problem is they do not like Russia any more than they like the West. Russians are too independent, too dishonorable. China sees them as a lower life-form as well, preferable to us because we are seen as cultural spreaders, but still not someone the Chinese will deal fairly with. Russia, as you say, distrusts the Chinese but needs their money. It's not anything like NATO, but it is a symbiosis made in Heaven and both countries know it. They will deal with each other, but only out of necessity.

India is an interesting dynamic. They have kept much of their culture in the face of spreading Westernization, and Russia sees them as a potential trading partner. China does not trust India because they have accepted some Western influences and have a lot of ties to the US. No one knows whose side India will wind up on if there is a conflict.

There is also the concept of the "shared enemy" to consider. Russia has a lot of animosity toward the US and Europe because of our Middle Eastern actions that oppose their planned pipelines. China has an inherent distrust in and disdain of the US and Europe over cultural concerns. At some point, it is quite possible that "the enemy of my enemy" becomes "my friend." Should that happen, should the intellectual ability of Russia combine with the production ability of China, very bad things could happen very quickly. That is my concern.

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

I'm certainly not going to say that it's NOT going to happen, because it's entirely possible that it will eventually. There's almost no chance of a military alliance, which is a Good Thing, but I can see closer economic ties. Russia is going to be very cautious though, because China is going to see all that oil and resources in Siberia, and if they can't get it anywhere else, they might decide they can bite off little bits of territory, or snatch resources, the way they have in the South China Sea. If they are careful and don't try to do too much, Russia might just let them get away with it. Or China might think that they will at least.

India has gotten very interesting in recent years. They're one of the only countries I've ever heard of to get complete access to design and engineering teams for the nuclear reactors used on our carriers. They want to build their own nuclear powered carrier, and the Navy has, so far, given them unprecedented help and access to ours during the decision making process. I have the feeling that if China gets involved India is either going to stay out of it completely, or will come in on the side of whoever is up against China.

a reply to: Zaphod58

One of the great things about ATS is that we can share perspectives. I may have the insight on the energy situation and control theory possibilities, but you have me beat when it comes to actual hardware being produced. And of course we both have our perspectives on the world situation.

I can see a military alliance between Russia and China, albeit I will agree it will be an uneasy one. If anything, I have more trouble seeing a solid economic alliance. Both countries are operating in the true spirit of unbridled capitalism: keep both eyes on your opponent, because you never know when he'll turn his back and present a target. No, they'll continue to use each other to further their own individual goals. The problem will come when we get in the way of both countries' goals.

I really need to bone up more on India. I didn't know about their carrier project.

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

I see China eyeing the vast expanse and sparsely populated areas of Russia hungrily.
I see a wary Russia, biding it's time.
The relationship between the Bear and the Dragon, is precarious at best, IMO.
I give it 10 years or less.

a reply to: Gravelbone

Sometimes the most precarious relationships are the longest-lasting.

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

Again, I'm not saying it definitely won't happen, but a Russian-Chinese military alliance is a pretty remote possibility. I can see an increase in sales from Russia to China, and more license building by China, but the US isn't currently seen as a big enough threat to either, or both, for them to form a close alliance. According to Putin, late last year when asked about a possible military alliance-

"You can imagine everything. We have always proceeded from the fact that our relations have reached such a degree of interaction and trust that we do not need this, but theoretically, it is quite possible to imagine such a thing."

news.cgtn.com...

They are working together to develop a new BMEWS system, but barring imminent threat by the US, a military alliance is unlikely.

The Indian carrier, IAC-2, if it goes forward, would be a 65,000 ton hull. INS Vikrant, a 45,000 ton hull, is set to commission this year. The plans for IAC-2 are up in the air though. The Indian DRDO just tested a new AIP system, and the Navy wants to add six additional SSNs to the fleet, as well as possibly adding additional SSBNs. The AIP system will be retrofitted onto the Scorpene class SSKs bought from France. Their third hull commissioned earlier this month. The INS Vagir is performing sea trials.

Their second SSBN just commissioned. The first two Arihant class (Arihant and Arighati) are capable of carrying 12 K-15 missiles, with a range of 470 mi, or 4 K-4 missiles with a range of 2200 mi, and use an 83 MW Compact Light-Water Reactor. The third and fourth of the class will double that capacity, and increase displacement to 7,000 tons. The planned S5 class will increase displacement to 13,500 tons, and use a 190 MW CLWR for power. It will carry 12-16 K6 SLBMs.

The new SSNs will be a collaboration between India and France most likely, since France doesn't have the controls on technology exports that we have. They currently have one Akula class hull leased from Russia, and 17 SSKs. The lease on the Akula ends in 2022, with another to go into effect in 2025, again for 10 years. It appears that the new SSNs will use a Pressurized Water Reactor.

India is also looking at reviving their heavy destroyer project, to complement their new guided missile destroyers that should commission within the year. They're rapidly attempting to become a true blue water navy, to counter the Chinese threat that they see.

originally posted by: AaarghZombies
a reply to: JohnnyAnonymous

Yet one more reason to stop this combative foreign policy. China dies not need to be an enemy. Most of what it does is a reaction to pressure put on it by the west. Like that huge great carrier battle group.

Their committing genocide on uighurs because of the west??

a reply to: Stu112

According to china yes. Reality is its their expansionist policies most countries dropped this after world war 2 China did not get the memo. It is currently in border disputes with 18 countries 19 if you count Russia. just last simmer they had a major dispute over vladivostok as China claims that is their territory. Never mind it was actually founded by russians. They want to claim their was a chinese city there before it was created and thats there territory. For Russia China is there biggest threat and their media hate each other. Their goals directly coflict each other and as far as Russia is concerned China just keeps stealing their tech. China has not proven to be trustworthy as they have a tendency to buy something only to reverse engineer it. Even purchases from China were put on hold after the latest spat over territory with many Russians claimmg they should not deal with China at all. They see India as a much better trade partner But india is not all that interested in their military tech.

I think really the only cooperation possible is in natural gas Russia has it China wants it.But even there China is trying to low ball Russia so this may fall through as well found the link i was looking for


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