I'm no "climate scientist' - help me understand this (BOM's outlook suggests a wet summer)

As most members will be aware, large swathes of Australia's population centres were affected by bush fires last summer.

At the time and subsequently, many media organisations and politicians were of course reporting this as a symptom of catastrophic climate change and we were told by the experts that, as a result of catastrophic climate change we could expect longer, hotter, drier summers that would exacerbate the impact of bush fires.

Now, the beloved public broadcaster the ABC are telling us that the BOM (Bureau Of Meteorology) outlook for this summer is wet with lower than average temperatures expected.

But as the months play out, the continued presence of La Niña is expected to encourage far wetter conditions than we have seen over the past few years, with increased risk of floods and an average to above-average risk of tropical cyclones.

Key points:
BOM's summer outlook suggests wetter than average conditions are likely for most of this summer
It will be a race to get crops out for many as the rains are expected to return in December
Despite rain and lower-than-average temperatures, there is always a risk of fire in southern Australia over summer

So I, as I am sure many others are are left somewhat confused as we are told on one hand the "cL1M8 DizAstA" is causing an increase in temperatures worldwide and we are all going to die in 20 years. Then, as we head in to the very next summer it is wet with cooler conditions than we have seen in some time.

Problem is, the Klimate Kult hysterics attribute any weather to klimate change.

So which one is it? Is the world getting blisteringly hot or cooler than previous summers with drought breaking rain?

Admittedly, I only have a highschool education and am certainly no Scientist™ so am a little baffled by all of the failed predictions (is New York City under water yet?) and attributing both hot and cold weather to klimate change.

Anyone have an idea?

The climate is changing, I think..unpredictable, is the word that should be used.

Cloudy with a chance of beer.

During the most agriculturally productive time in Human History, the climate was much warmer than it is now. If you really want to worry, than look at a new glaciation period starting up. Many many signs are pointing to that direction more then they are towards global warming.

originally posted by: vonclod
The climate is changing, I think..unpredictable, is the word that should be used.

Agreed, the doom predictions and hysteria need to stop.

It's gonna rain platpussies and dingos.

a reply to: IAMALLYETALLIAM

Environmental activists took over for actual environmentalists a long time ago. Since then we've seen ever increasing alarmism to scare their patrons into funding their organizations.

Climate activists and the groups making money from it are more than happy if dummkopfs do what they're told and avoid learning the science behind environmental problems. Simplified views are easier to exploit.

originally posted by: Ksihkehe
a reply to: IAMALLYETALLIAM

Environmental activists took over for actual environmentalists a long time ago. Since then we've seen ever increasing alarmism to scare their patrons into funding their organizations.

Climate activists and the groups making money from it are more than happy if dummkopfs do what they're told and avoid learning the science behind environmental problems. Simplified views are easier to exploit.

That's my take as well, no need for funding if there's no crisis to solve.

Our Prime Minister is a dunce but the other week he called climate activists and the likes of extinction rebellion green collar criminals which made me chuckle.

a reply to: IAMALLYETALLIAM

You don't have to be a climate scientist. You just need to remember Science class from middle school. Do whatever is necessary to prepare for wet days ahead.

a reply to: IAMALLYETALLIAM
I have a tongue in cheek answer, and a real answer for you.

tongue-in-cheek: If the temperatures in Australia start falling all we have to do to make it match climate change is account for the fact Australia is upside down, by flipping the temperature chart upside down, so it will show an increase as expected.

real answer: A single summer is not a very reliable indicator of climate. Climate norms are established over a much longer period of time, 30 years according to the noaa website, but some cycles last decades so even 30 years seems a bit short to me for looking at climate. So I'd start with the noaa description of the difference between weather and climate to see that what will happen in one summer can deviate from the normal "climate" over a 30 year period:

What’s the Difference Between Weather and Climate?

When scientists talk about climate, they're often looking at averages of precipitation, temperature, humidity, sunshine, wind, and other measures of weather that occur over a long period in a particular place. In some instances, they might look at these averages over 30 years. And, we refer to these three-decade averages of weather observations as Climate Normals.

The cycles of El Niño and La Niña such as discussed in your link typically last 9-12 months but can last a few years in certain cases, and can result in changes to the weather in either direction compared to climate norms established over 30 years:

What are El Niño and La Niña?

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of what is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The ENSO cycle is a scientific term that describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central Equatorial Pacific (approximately between the International Date Line and 120 degrees West).

La Niña is sometimes referred to as the cold phase of ENSO and El Niño as the warm phase of ENSO. These deviations from normal surface temperatures can have large-scale impacts not only on ocean processes, but also on global weather and climate.

El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.

So bottom line, El Niño and La Niña episodes can last a year and cause conditions that deviate from the climate normals which are established over a 30 year period (at least).

a reply to: IAMALLYETALLIAM

It is a possibility, however, the long term climate picture is not good for us. As I have shown before, the dominant driver of the wet/dry condition of our climate is one of 3 possibilities;

Either it is;

A: Microsoft Excel has the extraordinary ability to predict the general conditions of our climate has has been able to do so for the last 120 years

B: It all just a 120 years coincidence

C: Its...........the............Sun.



The above data was sourced from the BOM and that other place in Europe with the Sun Obs Data.

Unfortunately the BOM have DELETED the rain data from their website..........funny that.

originally posted by: IAMALLYETALLIAM

originally posted by: vonclod
The climate is changing, I think..unpredictable, is the word that should be used.

Agreed, the doom predictions and hysteria need to stop.

We probably are in for more problems, but carbon taxes wont fix it.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
a reply to: IAMALLYETALLIAM
I have a tongue in cheek answer, and a real answer for you.

tongue-in-cheek: If the temperatures in Australia start falling all we have to do to make it match climate change is account for the fact Australia is upside down, by flipping the temperature chart upside down, so it will show an increase as expected.

real answer: A single summer is not a very reliable indicator of climate. Climate norms are established over a much longer period of time, 30 years according to the noaa website, but some cycles last decades so even 30 years seems a bit short to me for looking at climate. So I'd start with the noaa description of the difference between weather and climate to see that what will happen in one summer can deviate from the normal "climate" over a 30 year period:

What’s the Difference Between Weather and Climate?

When scientists talk about climate, they're often looking at averages of precipitation, temperature, humidity, sunshine, wind, and other measures of weather that occur over a long period in a particular place. In some instances, they might look at these averages over 30 years. And, we refer to these three-decade averages of weather observations as Climate Normals.

The cycles of El Niño and La Niña such as discussed in your link typically last 9-12 months but can last a few years in certain cases, and can result in changes to the weather in either direction compared to climate norms established over 30 years:

What are El Niño and La Niña?

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of what is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The ENSO cycle is a scientific term that describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central Equatorial Pacific (approximately between the International Date Line and 120 degrees West).

La Niña is sometimes referred to as the cold phase of ENSO and El Niño as the warm phase of ENSO. These deviations from normal surface temperatures can have large-scale impacts not only on ocean processes, but also on global weather and climate.

El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.

So bottom line, El Niño and La Niña episodes can last a year and cause conditions that deviate from the climate normals which are established over a 30 year period (at least).

Thankyou, that is quite informative and El Nino/Nina events only lasting a short period provides some perspective.

You may be interested in this, on one of the ABC radio channels I tune in to roughly a year ago they were discussing the Indian Ocean Dipole which is phenomena scientists have only started recently observing. Recently as in the past 12-24 months.

In laymans terms, when there is prolonged drought and arid conditions in Australia the opposite effect is felt on the east coast of Africa which is purportedly all due to ocean temperature;



Bureau Of Meteorology - Indian Ocean Dipole

My point here is, science is an ever evolving set of theories that is constantly being updated and we shouldn't use average science to promote fear and hysteria when there are so many unknown contributing factors.

originally posted by: myselfaswell
a reply to: IAMALLYETALLIAM

It is a possibility, however, the long term climate picture is not good for us. As I have shown before, the dominant driver of the wet/dry condition of our climate is one of 3 possibilities;

Either it is;

A: Microsoft Excel has the extraordinary ability to predict the general conditions of our climate has has been able to do so for the last 120 years

B: It all just a 120 years coincidence

C: Its...........the............Sun.

The above data was sourced from the BOM and that other place in Europe with the Sun Obs Data.

Unfortunately the BOM have DELETED the rain data from their website..........funny that.

Check out my above post, I find that topic of the dipole quite interesting and specifically relevant to causation of climate and rainfall in Australia.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and information. Seems you are suggesting average number of wet days has a direct correlation to sun spots? Interesting and thanks for sharing.

All I know is in my region everything is green, dams are full and paddocks are full of long grass for feed. We were in drought for about 5 years prior and it has now been broken.

originally posted by: vonclod

originally posted by: IAMALLYETALLIAM

originally posted by: vonclod
The climate is changing, I think..unpredictable, is the word that should be used.

Agreed, the doom predictions and hysteria need to stop.

We probably are in for more problems, but carbon taxes wont fix it.

No, they absolutely will not. Carbon taxes and credits are for rich a holes with private jets and big corporations to absolve themselves of responsibility for polluting the planet.

I think we need to do a lot better in terms of environmental stewardship but the hysteria and doom predictions have got to stop.

One man's idea of doom is another man's opportunity to thrive.

It all depends on what one is willing to do with ones foresight.

a reply to: IAMALLYETALLIAM
We're on the same page pretty much!

a reply to: IAMALLYETALLIAM

Seems you are suggesting average number of wet days has a direct correlation to sun spots? Interesting and thanks for sharing.

Not exactly, but kinda.

The wet days are really just a logic statement. Did it rain Yes/No, he actual quantum of rain is irrelevant, and it is so because we are only interested in the trend, which, uncannily, matches the largest energy source in our solar system. But as some will suggest that's just another one of those extraordinary coincidences.

The sunspot data is just easy to get a hold of and get into excel. There are many other solar outputs that would suffice.

Suspicious0bservers have a series of excellent videos that explain the pressure from the sun that impacts our climate. Highly recommended.

In my opinion, climate change is based on two basically flawed principles. Firstly, that CO2 is "bad" , when in reality high levels of CO2 are hugely beneficial to the planet and all life on it. And secondly, ice core samples from Greenland show that an increase in CO2 follows warming, not the other way around. The delay is about 800 years and we are now around 800 years after the medieval warm period.

originally posted by: IAMALLYETALLIAM


So which one is it? Is the world getting blisteringly hot or cooler than previous summers with drought breaking rain?

Admittedly, I only have a highschool education and am certainly no Scientist™ so am a little baffled by all of the failed predictions (is New York City under water yet?) and attributing both hot and cold weather to klimate change.

Anyone have an idea?

The La Niña pattern is not attributed to climate change. It was there before and will be there after the rise in average temperature due to build up of CO2. It is a cycle driven mainly by sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific.

The La Niña/El Nino cycle oscillates between higher than average rainfall and lower than average rainfall in those areas of the planet that are affected by it. That pattern is superimposed on a background of steadily increasing average temperatures. In any given year, the amount of cooling due to La Niña can be 5 degrees C or more and that can offset the amount of warming due to CO2. The total amount of average warming due to CO2 buildup right now is only about 1 degree C, so the La Niña cooling can easily overcome that.

Here in Northern California we are experiencing the same pattern as in Australia. We’ve just had the hottest summer on record with the worst wildfires but now we are in a La Niña cycle and the winter will probably be wetter and cooler than usual.

The climate models are getting more accurate all the time because computer power continues to increase and we have more and better measurements of the environment. No model predicted that New York would be under water by now.

Another thing to keep in mind is that just because the climate models predict that the average temperature of the planet will rise that doesn’t mean that every place on the planet will rise by the same amount everywhere and all the time. Some places will warm faster than others. Right now, the Arctic and Antarctic are warming faster than lower latitudes. One consequence of that is that the polar vortex winds cause colder than average temperatures to migrate farther from the poles down to lower latitudes in the winter. Both the US and Europe have experienced that several times in the last decade or so.

The one general rule of global warming is that in the future, almost no place on the planet will continue to have the same climate it has now.