ATS, give us your 2020 Electoral College Predictions!

Hi guys, thought I'd bring in a little fun into the 2020 debate here. I recall we did a thread as far back as 2012 in relation to predictions of electoral college wins for the presidency? I quite enjoyed it and was surprised we're not doing it again? So yes! I thought I'd get predictions from other ATSers!

My Electoral College prediction below for 2020 - Biden wins



Create your own electoral college map here:
270towin Link

I'm not expecting people to rationalize or explain away their predictions but it would certainly be great! For me, I believe Biden will flip Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania back into the blue column. I base this on the fact that while Trump won these states in 2016, it was only by a total of 80,000 odd votes I believe, altogether? And that his win there would require a bump in his approval leading up to now. What I'm seeing now are averages of 5+ in the polls for Biden, and less enthusiasm in those states overall.

Arizona and Ohio into blue as well. I can't believe I'm saying this but Arizona has changed so much in the last 3 years, political wise. All trends point to a lean to blue, and it's been consistently above 0. Ohio is usually a deciding factor and has a history of following the winner.

Trump will keep Florida red given his close ties and relations in that State, with gov DeSantis, his business presence there. It's essentially his new homestate and he typically polls better there. He'll also keep NC. NC's done a 180 since 2008 when they went for Obama. They seem to be turning solidly red.

Texas and Georgia still have a long while before even becoming toss ups. These will remain solid red.

Looking forward to seeing what others have in mind. Likewise things can change quickly over the next month.

538-0 Biden wins by mail in ballots.

I think this is off on AZ, NM and OH. Ohio population cities will go against Trump (there are several low population cities that are always blood red). But that is only 264 of the magic 270. But where will the needed votes come from...I think VA is gonna flip due to the antics of the Governor...especially when they drive it home over the near war that happened in January.

Which is exactly why Ohio goes to Trump, btw. People are ready to run DeWine out on a rail for being a RINO. And while both NM and CO went to Hillary, it was close in both states. Biden doesn’t have half the draw of Hillary, he never did.

a reply to: Southern Guardian

a reply to: Ahabstar

Which is exactly why Ohio goes to Trump, btw. People are ready to run DeWine out on a rail for being a RINO. And while both NM and CO went to Hillary, it was close in both states. Biden doesn’t have half the draw of Hillary, he never did.

So Biden will do worse than Hillary? Interesting. Hillary did have far more dedicated support I think. Enthusiasm for Biden is rather low... historically for the Democratic party I believe.... blame us Bernie or bust folks.. but that's what you get I guess for rigging the system against Bernie...

You both got Minnesota wrong, we'll swing because of someone, somewhere did something.

But damn, Cali gets a lofty 55. And our troubles started in 2016?

a reply to: Southern Guardian

The fact that democrats are cheating in all possible ways (and don't tell me you don't know what I mean), is telling us that they know the won't win.

So they perfectly know the Electoral College will keep Trump. Not rocket science.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Jesus you're really giving Biden Florida?? I'd love your thinking behind this!?

a reply to: Trueman

So they perfectly know the Electoral College will keep Trump. Not rocket science.

So the prediction is a landslide for Trump? Fair enough.

a reply to: Southern Guardian

Jersey transplants...

Trump win. He'll get more electoral votes.

My social media pulse has been on point.

a reply to: Nivhk

You both got Minnesota wrong, we'll swing because of someone, somewhere did something.

But damn, Cali gets a lofty 55. And our troubles started in 2016?

Interesting thing about the electoral college, it's heavily in favor of the small states as the founders had intended. Cali is actually grossly undervalued on the electoral college considering this fact:

Whose votes count the least in the Electoral College?

Most people believe the Electoral College weighs ballots in states with large populations much less than those in small states. For example, as the Washington Post noted shortly after the election, Wyoming has three electoral votes and a population of 586,107, while California has 55 electoral votes and 39,144,818 residents. Distributing the electoral vote evenly among each state’s residents suggests that individual votes from Wyoming carry 3.6 times more influence, or weight, than those from California.

But there's a fair reason to that, it's to ensure the smaller states have an equal say in government. I agree with it.

originally posted by: Southern Guardian
Hi guys, thought I'd bring in a little fun into the 2020 debate here. I recall we did a thread as far back as 2012 in relation to predictions of electoral college wins for the presidency? I quite enjoyed it and was surprised we're not doing it again? So yes! I thought I'd get predictions from other ATSers!

My Electoral College prediction below for 2020 - Biden wins

I'm not expecting people to rationalize or explain away their predictions but it would certainly be great! For me, I believe Biden will flip Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania back into the blue column. I base this on the fact that while Trump won these states in 2016, it was only by a total of 80,000 odd votes I believe, altogether? And that his win there would require a bump in his approval leading up to now. What I'm seeing now are averages of 5+ in the polls for Biden, and less enthusiasm in those states overall.

Arizona and Ohio into blue as well. I can't believe I'm saying this but Arizona has changed so much in the last 3 years, political wise. All trends point to a lean to blue, and it's been consistently above 0. Ohio is usually a deciding factor and has a history of following the winner.

Trump will keep Florida red given his close ties and relations in that State, with gov DeSantis, his business presence there. It's essentially his new homestate and he typically polls better there. He'll also keep NC. NC's done a 180 since 2008 when they went for Obama. They seem to be turning solidly red.

Texas and Georgia still have a long while before even becoming toss ups. These will remain solid red.

Looking forward to seeing what others have in mind. Likewise things can change quickly over the next month.

Red, Blue..confusing innit? still and all, NC could be turning blue with anger.

originally posted by: Southern Guardian
a reply to: Trueman

So they perfectly know the Electoral College will keep Trump. Not rocket science.

So the prediction is a landslide for Trump? Fair enough.

Not a landslide. I think Biden will do a little better that Hillary anyway. Will be another huge embarrassing moment for her. Democrats will feel like they made some progress and they they'll ruin it with another dumb impeachment attempt.

Edit: I think VA goes light blue though, forgot to change that.

a reply to: Southern Guardian

Doesn't really mean much if y'all go in the boothe with your head down and pull that Biden lever.

You mean the Bernie or whoever the DNC decides to put forward, folks?

I think it will be very similar to last time.
The only difference will be trump will win the swing states by a bigger margin.

But hey, ive been wrong before.

originally posted by: Middleoftheroad
538-0 Biden wins by mail in ballots.

Nailed it.

a reply to: TheLead

Doesn't really mean much if y'all go in the boothe with your head down and pull that Biden lever.

Well then you rest easy knowing I don't support Biden. It's been a point of contention with my friends as I'd supposedly be the cause of a Trump second term.... according to some. It's the principal though. Matters more.