Stats Update on COVID-19 vs Influenza

Before I get blamed for heartlessly comparing the flu to this, keep in mind that's all I'm doing; comparing the statistics between the two.


This is just a friendly post for those curious about how the numbers compare as of today.


This information comes from the Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases map developed by the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering.


Causes:

- COVID-19 is a novel coronavirus, now called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, or SARS-CoV-2.
- The Flu Caused by any of several different types and strains of influenza viruses.


Symptoms:

- Both cause fever, cough, body aches and fatigue; sometimes vomiting and diarrhea.
- Both can be mild or severe, even fatal in rare cases.
- Both can result in pneumonia.

Transmission:

- Both can be spread from person to person through droplets in the air from an infected person coughing, sneezing or talking.
- Both can be spread by an infected person for several days before their symptoms appear.
- A possible difference: COVID-19 might be spread through the airborne route (see details below under Differences).

Treatment:

- Neither virus is treatable with antibiotics, which only work on bacterial infections.
- Both are treated by addressing symptoms, such as reducing fever. Severe cases may require hospitalization and support such as mechanical ventilation.

Prevention:

- Both may be prevented by frequent, thorough hand washing, coughing into the crook of your elbow, staying home when sick and limiting contact with people who are infected.


Infections:

COVID-19: Approximately 487,648 cases worldwide; 69,197 cases in the U.S. as of Mar. 26, 2020.*

Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.


Deaths:

COVID-19: Approximately 22,030 deaths reported worldwide; 1,046 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 26, 2020.*

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

a reply to: iammrhappy86

Vaccine

COVID-19: No vaccine is available at this time, though it is in progress.

Flu: A vaccine is available and effective to prevent some of the types or to reduce the severity of the flu.

a reply to: iammrhappy86

How many weeks of hospitalizations does Flu take to resolve. How many 10's of thousands of ventilators are needed to keep flu patients alive?

Now,

ADD this on top of that! Something WORSE than the flu that spreads much easier and takes weeks to resolve, tens of thousands of ventilators needed, 10x to 20x the death rate of flu..... PLUS the flu as well.


Now are you getting the idea?


Spain and Italy are not treating patients over 60 or those with pre-existing conditions. Our hospitals are out of PPE and not enough ventilators. They are already discussing "do not resuscitate" as a default.

This is going to be a S#it-Storm

You're numbers are about a day behind.

United States confirmed cases: 80,735
Deaths: 1163

26th March 2020

Now look at it like this -
Past three days in the US:

692 new deaths
38,571 new cases confirmed

Assume rate continues growth at 19% & 26% each day (average past 3 days each) we are looking at in the next three days totalled..

55,316 NEW cases
~1100 - 1200 new deaths

Those numbers are going to continue growing exponentially without action. What do people not get about that?

We would be looking at over 1000 deaths a day by mid next week. We would surpass average yearly regular season FLU deaths by end of APRIL!

The most recent stat I saw was that the US has 2,200 serious / critical cases. Of course there are enough ventilators for them, however, I wonder HOW? serious does it need to be for a ventilator to be needed? Are all ventilators being used and not enough? Or the need for ventilators is for future cases?

*I had SARS IN CHINA and it wasn't pretty. But no ventilator needed.

a reply to: lightedhype

Projections

You answered my question. Thanks a reply to: infolurker

Could you send a link?
a reply to: infolurker

a reply to: BlackOops

Lifted it from ar15.com pandemic thread.

a reply to: infolurker

originally posted by: infolurker
a reply to: iammrhappy86

10x to 20x the death rate of flu......

Really?

Last I looked, the death rate of a disease is calculated by comparing the # of TOTAL INFECTED (estimation) vs the # of actual deaths.

We are NOWHERE NEAR having an accurate number of the number of actual infected people. Whatever death rate you've seen CANNOT be accurate.


lightedhype:

Assume rate continues growth at 19% & 26% each day (average past 3 days each) we are looking at in the next three days totalled

why assume it'll keep climbing so steadily?




By the way, my point of this topic is that this CAN be compared and SHOULD be compared to the Flu.
Now, nobody is saying this is identical to the flu; all we're saying is that influenza is the closest thing we can compare it to.


And the measures taken (which in all honesty created clusters of ppl in grocery stores and park by forcing everyone to stay home and panic-shop, likely contributed to more infections), simply do not seem to add up. ESPECIALLY when you look at the proposed solutions they seem to have planned out already (talks of new global digital economy, no more paper money / possible 18-month waves of partial quarantines to "flatten curves" regularly / introduction of a "vaccine-confirmed" ID).

originally posted by: infolurker
a reply to: iammrhappy86

This is going to be a S#it-Storm

I do agree with you on that. I think most of us do.

Don't forget your Umbrela!

originally posted by: BlackOops
The most recent stat I saw was that the US has 2,200 serious / critical cases. Of course there are enough ventilators for them, however, I wonder HOW? serious does it need to be for a ventilator to be needed? Are all ventilators being used and not enough? Or the need for ventilators is for future cases?

*I had SARS IN CHINA and it wasn't pretty. But no ventilator needed.

From what I can tell it's a very small fraction of people who actually need a ventilator. We have to remember that the average age of people who died in Italy was 80 and the majority of them had previous conditions. On the other hand kids are barely even feeling it and healthy adults have flu-like symptoms or even less severe symptoms than the flu. The main reason I think CV19 is being blown out of proportion is because the symptoms seem so weak that it's only capable of killing people who are really old and already sick. That is why we should be isolating old people but not the entire population. If this was a real superbug then I would be totally on board with a global quarantine, but we cannot risk economic collapse over a virus this tame, especially considering that we already live with many common viruses which are more than capable of killing old sick people. Yes CV19 seems to be remarkably effective at propagating, that is why I'm saying older people should self isolate. It's much easier for older people to drop everything and stay at home because most are already retired and have funds to keep them going throughout the quarantine. This is going to be my unwavering position until I see solid proof that CV19 is worth this level of panic.

a reply to: iammrhappy86

Last I looked, the death rate of a disease is calculated by comparing the # of TOTAL INFECTED (estimation) vs the # of actual deaths.

We are NOWHERE NEAR having an accurate number of the number of actual infected people. Whatever death rate you've seen CANNOT be accurate.

As I've said several times in other threads, we don't even know how many people really die from the flu according to the CDC. These comparisons are pointless without reliable numbers that make sense to compare. I'll just quote a previous post I made rather than repeat myself again.

originally posted by: ChaoticOrder

All the people who had serious pre-existing conditions should not be counted as part of the fatality rate for CV19 because that's how it works for other illnesses such as the flu. In the US people who die while they have the flu aren't recorded as having died from the flu if they have another serious illness because the underlying condition is actually what killed them. I know people like to throw around this number of 50k or 60k flu deaths each year in the US, but that's really just a rough estimation. The CDC states they don't record flu death numbers for adults because people who have the flu and die often have other underlying illnesses which allow them to get the flu easier, along with a range of other reasons. This is why the flu fatality rate looks so much lower than CV19, every single one of the people who died in Italy while infected with CV19 are recorded as part of the death statistics.

CDC does not know exactly how many people die from seasonal flu each year. There are several reasons for this. First, states are not required to report individual flu illnesses or deaths among people older than 18 years of age to CDC. Second, influenza is infrequently listed on death certificates of people who die from flu-related complications. Third, many flu-related deaths occur one or two weeks after a person’s initial infection, either because the person may develop a secondary bacterial co-infection (such as bacterial pneumonia) or because influenza can aggravate an existing chronic illness (such as congestive heart failure or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease). Also, most people who die from flu-related complications are not tested for flu, or they seek medical care later in their illness when influenza can no longer be detected from respiratory samples. Sensitive influenza tests are only likely to detect influenza if performed within a week after onset of illness. In addition, some commonly used tests to diagnose influenza in clinical settings are not highly sensitive and can provide false negative results (i.e. they misdiagnose flu illness as not being flu.) For these reasons, many flu-related deaths may not be recorded on death certificates.

Frequently Asked Questions about Estimated Flu Burden

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

Yes.
Current statistics are meaningless. As long as there is an ever increasing number of unresolved cases and testing is minimal the CFR is in a state of flux.

Right now what matters is the number of people requiring hospitalization. Have a look at New York. The number of unresolved cases continues to rise. As does the number of hospitalizations.

Later a more accurate CFR can be produced. Right now it doesn't really matter.

originally posted by: ChaoticOrder
a reply to: iammrhappy86

Last I looked, the death rate of a disease is calculated by comparing the # of TOTAL INFECTED (estimation) vs the # of actual deaths.

We are NOWHERE NEAR having an accurate number of the number of actual infected people. Whatever death rate you've seen CANNOT be accurate.

As I've said several times in other threads, we don't even know how many people really die from the flu according to the CDC. These comparisons are pointless without reliable numbers that make sense to compare. I'll just quote a previous post I made rather than repeat myself again.

We have an accurate number of CONFIRMED flu cases. It's been around long enough that we can *estimate* an actual total.

COVID-19 has not been around long enough to make such estimates. Furthermore, we have not tested everyone in the country or world; it is nearly impossible to make an estimation of the number of infected with mild symptoms (or none) who recovered fully without medical assistance.

One thing we can safely assess, is that in order to compare the Flu and COVID-19's death rates, we'd need to significantly increase the death rate for the Flu, or significantly decrease the death rate of COVID-19 by an arbitrary number which cannot yet be defined.

You think it's pointless to note those things? Alright then.

Here in Taiwan there is about 260 cases and 2 dead. That may be the reason why I am not even on the radar for panic. I see what is happening in the US (China stats don't count) and I have to agree with you at this point. It also shows how much ability that US states have lost. The constitution doesn't have anything about disease. Local and state governments know their community better than the Federal government and the state should balance the taxes collected for what ever current problems that might exist and any future unforeseen issues. Point is, if a state wants to be a state, act like it.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: ChaoticOrder

Yes.
Current statistics are meaningless. As long as there is an ever increasing number of unresolved cases and testing is minimal the CFR is in a state of flux.

Right now what matters is the number of people requiring hospitalization. Have a look at New York. The number of unresolved cases continues to rise. As does the number of hospitalizations.

Later a more accurate CFR can be produced. Right now it doesn't really matter.

Excellent point.

In New York, the number of Covid-19 hospitalizations is steadily declining.

www.independent.co.uk...





But New York still loses about 375 people PER MONTH to the Flu.

www.cdc.gov...