The flu

I’m want to run down the flu pandemics of the 20th century for perspective

The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic infected 27% of the worlds population . There are different death tallies worldwide and I’m gonna use 50 million.



Spanish flu

Thr 1957 Asian flu pandemic.

First case was reported in China in 1956. It spread Singapore in Feb 1957, Hong Kong in April and the US in June. It lasted through 1958 and caused 69,000 deaths in US , 1 to 4,000,000 worldwide. It had a 1.3 to 3.5% mortality rate.

Asian flu

Asian flu

The 1968 Hong Kong flu.
It began in July in Hong Kong and it was in the US by September. It’s fatality rate was .05% and killed 33,800 in the US and 1,000,000 worldwide.

Hong Kong

Swine flu 1976

The CDC predicted a Pandemic with 50 to 60,000,000 people infected in the us. The panic was on 25% of the population were vaccinated. The butchers bill was 200 infected and one dead.

SARS ,MERS, and bird flu all fell on their face.

Now here’s what bothers me. The media and medical professionals are claiming a 70% (5,200,000,000) worldwide infection rate.

How can anyone with a functioning brain possibly believe that? 😳

At a fatality rate of 2%. They’re saying 100,000,000 people will die.

In contrast back to the top of the OP

During the Spanish flu when hygiene was nonexistent for many. The estimated infection rate was only 27%.

They’re lying. So I have to stop and ask myself .

Why ?

You should too.

Trumps been saying it like it is.

80% of the infected ( if that stat is accurate ) are just going to get a nasty flu. (paraphrased)

I’m not saying the world won’t come to an end. 😱


I just wish people would quit thinking they’re going to burst into flames if they grab a door knob. (analogy)

a reply to: Fallingdown

And 15%-20% are going to require hospitalization. 5% may require ventilators... for weeks.

We may not have the open resources to cope with that on such a large scale.

It isn't just about death.... tying up hospital resources for 3-6 weeks with that % of the cases will be devastating. What do you think the hospital charge will be on that? 100K, 200K ?

a reply to: infolurker

That all hinges on the 70% infection rate . Do you believe it’s accurate ?

Will we have enough ventilators if only 10% of the population gets infected.

a reply to: Fallingdown

No idea but I sure as hell will avoid catching it if at all possible. To not personally plan for a possible bad outcome is irresponsible in my opinion and risks the well being of your family and loved ones. China and Italy have not fared so well to date.

We must remain calm but not complacent.

a reply to: Fallingdown

my friend, OOPs!

Now here’s what bothers me. The media and medical professionals are claiming a 70% (5,200,000,000) worldwide infection rate.
How can anyone with a functioning brain possibly believe that? 😳

At a fatality rate of 2%. They’re saying 1 billion people will die.

2% is 1/5 of 10% yeah?

10% of 5,000,000,000 = 50million

70% = 7/10 = 350 million infected worldwise AND

2% of that is SEVENTY (70,000,000) million People

& million of whom MIGHT die IF it has a 2% fatality rate

where TF did ANYONE come up with the number of a BILLION from?

These guys Rx drugs that a 10% 'error' might KILL you

IN FACT, did you know How Many Die From Medical Mistakes In U.S. Hospitals? currently each YEAR? Preventable Deaths too?

Now comes a study in the current issue of the Journal of Patient Safety that says the numbers may be much higher — between 210,000 and 440,000 patients each year who go to the hospital for care suffer some type of preventable harm that contributes to their death.

That would make medical errors the third-leading cause of death in America, behind heart disease, which is the first, and cancer, which is second.

here's just one of the articles about it

A billion people!!! That's closer to 17% death rate of the planet!

common core maths eh?

a reply to: Fallingdown

The media and medical professionals are claiming a 70% (5,200,000,000) worldwide infection rate.

More specific, please.

a reply to: Fallingdown

Now here’s what bothers me. The media and medical professionals are claiming a 70% (5,200,000,000) worldwide infection rate.

How can anyone with a functioning brain possibly believe that? 😳

At a fatality rate of 2%. They’re saying 1 billion people will die.

2% of 5.2 billion = 104 million

i realise doom porn sounds more scary if you use fantasy maths but hey

a reply to: infolurker

I’m going to go out on a limb and say you probably wouldn’t want to catch the regular flu. Right ?

There’s a death rate with that one too .

On Carewemust’s thread he quoted a statistic that said South Korea’s fatality rate is .06%.

I can’t believe any of the health officials statistics because of the ridiculous infection rate .

I pretty much agree with everything tucker says.

But not this .

( except on China’s global intentions )

a reply to: JohnnyJetson

Just a typo . I usually don’t edit them but since you’re being a jerk about it I decided to .

Do you want to talk about the topic ?

Or maybe I’ve got something spelled wrong?

Perhaps you can find a comma that’s out of place ? 😎

a reply to: Phage

They said a 70% infection rate for quite a while. Now they’re saying 70 to 40% .

So that’s 60 million dead .


The fact that you’re coming down should tell you they don’t know how this virus is going to act .

Do you think this is going to be like Spanish influenza ?

a reply to: ignorant_ape

Jesus Christ everybody here’s the math I had saved .

Earth population 7,530,000,000

Projected
infection rate.     X .7 (70%)
                             _________
   Infected.          5,271,000,000

Fatality rate.         X .03 (3%)
                            ____________

possible fatalities      158,130,000


I was using voice dictation .

Sorry

a reply to: Fallingdown

Normal Flu has a death rate of about .1% , Coronavirus is still estimated at about 3.4%

Likewise, 15-20% of people who catch the flu do not require 3-6 weeks of hospitalization.


The main difference is we don't have 10-45 million cases of Coronavirus in the US yet like flu. If we did (or do), we would be screwed.

And by the way, flu RO value is about 1.3, this crap is 2.28 which means it is even more contagious.

See the problems here?

Oh, I do not know what a bad flu is. Whenever I get the flu, I feel weak and exhausted for a day or two, sleep 20 hours and it's gone. Been that way all my life.

originally posted by: infolurker
a reply to: Fallingdown

Likewise, 15-20% of people who catch the flu do not require 3-6 weeks of hospitalization.

And so many requiring hospital resources would take away from people needing medical help for every other ailment. The death toll from this virus alone would be one thing but it's impact on everything else, quite another.

a reply to: Gnawledge

What happens if only 30% of the population get’s infected ?

Are you afraid you are gonna die if you catch it ?

originally posted by: Fallingdown
a reply to: JohnnyJetson

Just a typo . I usually don’t edit them but since you’re being a jerk about it I decided to .

Do you want to talk about the topic ?

Or maybe I’ve got something spelled wrong?

Perhaps you can find a comma that’s out of place ? 😎

LOL, talk about "showing True colors"

It Was NOT a "typo" as ALL your other 'numbers' depend on it! And you didn't "see it worthy of correcting"? ah .. ok then.

had you left OUT the 'ad hominem Attack' to support your fallacious, Straw Man reply, I would've let it slide

But NO, you HAD to show that "passive-aggressive" manner someone with "tickets on themselves" has ... you CAN"T BE wrong .... never are, as you just implied, "it was a typo" aka ERROR!

Get your FACTS Right or GYFR or GTFO

Go have another drink

originally posted by: Fallingdown
a reply to: infolurker

That all hinges on the 70% infection rate . Do you believe it’s accurate ?

Will we have enough ventilators if only 10% of the population gets infected.

Is this a "typo" too?

originally posted by: Fallingdown
a reply to: Phage

They said a 70% infection rate for quite a while. Now they’re saying 70 to 40% .

So that’s 60 million dead .


The fact that you’re coming down should tell you they don’t know how this virus is going to act .

Do you think this is going to be like Spanish influenza ?

and again

Typo I guess?

a reply to: Fallingdown

hmm - fatality rate has jumped from 02% to 03% - for "reasons " ?

fantasy flu season - like fantasy football season - but the " winner " - is the one with the most dead people

Add this on top of the seasonal flu and we are in a helluva problem.

originally posted by: Fallingdown
I’m want to run down the flu pandemics of the 20th century for perspective

The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic infected 27% of the worlds population . There are different death tallies worldwide and I’m gonna use 50 million.



Spanish flu

Thr 1957 Asian flu pandemic.

First case was reported in China in 1956. It spread Singapore in Feb 1957, Hong Kong in April and the US in June. It lasted through 1958 and caused 69,000 deaths in US , 1 to 4,000,000 worldwide. It had a 1.3 to 3.5% mortality rate.

Asian flu

Asian flu

The 1968 Hong Kong flu.
It began in July in Hong Kong and it was in the US by September. It’s fatality rate was .05% and killed 33,800 in the US and 1,000,000 worldwide.

Hong Kong

Swine flu 1976

The CDC predicted a Pandemic with 50 to 60,000,000 people infected in the us. The panic was on 25% of the population were vaccinated. The butchers bill was 200 infected and one dead.

SARS ,MERS, and bird flu all fell on their face.

Now here’s what bothers me. The media and medical professionals are claiming a 70% (5,200,000,000) worldwide infection rate.

How can anyone with a functioning brain possibly believe that? 😳

At a fatality rate of 2%. They’re saying 100,000,000 people will die.

In contrast back to the top of the OP

During the Spanish flu when hygiene was nonexistent for many. The estimated infection rate was only 27%.

They’re lying. So I have to stop and ask myself .

Why ?

You should too.

Trumps been saying it like it is.

80% of the infected ( if that stat is accurate ) are just going to get a nasty flu. (paraphrased)

I’m not saying the world won’t come to an end. 😱


I just wish people would quit thinking they’re going to burst into flames if they grab a door knob. (analogy)

a reply to: Fallingdown

I think even if these numbers are accurate, you have to figure that this will not be an even distribution. Some places will have higher rates of death and others will have lower. There will not be an even, across the board distribution.

In a country like Venezuela where medical care is pretty much non-existent (but free!) thanks to collapse of government systems, you're going to have a real mess and sky high body count because very, very few will get any supportive care at all. However, in countries with good care systems like South Korea, you're seeing a death rate more like 0.6% at present.