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originally posted by: dogstar23
a reply to: AnakinWayneII
Good question indeed! Imagine how many scenarios and playbooks CIA has for this very question. And how much post-self planning Putin has done! Then again...
originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
a reply to: Graysen
When you kill and imprison any and all industrialists and politicians that go against you, you tend to have a lot of support among those who remain.
originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
a reply to: AnakinWayneII
What is worse. Him dying with no contingency plan in play, or him living long enough to insert the next Putin as dictator to continue his path?
originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: AnakinWayneIIThe following is my opinion as a member participating in this discussion.
I have pondered this question on and off for years. A worse case scenario is a coup against Putin leading to a second Russian Civil War. The international community would have to face the prospect of Russia's nuclear weapons stock pile falling into the hands of non state actors or rival government. To what degree the opponents of the Putin regime would employ nuclear weapons or sell them to the highest bidder to fun the war is speculative.
Economically, the country could collapse in face of energy production ceasing. To what extent this would increase regional energy production in the forms of renewable(s) and deep sea mining in other parts of the globe is an interesting point to ponder. China may intervene in the civil war as "liberators", there true aim is to occupy natural resource rich Siberia. This would change China's gepolitical and geoeconomic outlook. Currently, China is looking south towards control of the South China Sea, and ending the U.S. lead alliance/international rules based order systems.
A more probable and peaceful scenario is a Soviet style succession. Putin is moved on by his closest inner circle into "retirement" or he steps aside for the chosen replacement. How his or replacement changes their rule over Russia and their foreign policy/international interests is another can of worms. A more aggressive stance towards western Europe (Russia invading western Europe) is a scary; but realistic outcome.
Upon the rise of deep sea mining, the new dictator of Russia, may push towards Japan, seeking territorial or mining claims. This would increase the risk of a Russia - Japan War. China's current international aims fit nicely into this outcome, if the U.S. does not join the war on the side of Japan.As an ATS Staff Member, I will not moderate in threads such as this where I have participated as a member.