Disease X "greatest potential to cause pandemic" kills 1 out of 3.

www.thescottishsun.co.uk... id-fears-of-new-global-pandemic/

www.newsweek.com...

A strain of bird flu has been discovered in china that is killing 1 of 3 people infected. The reports did NOT say what kind of treatment they got, if any. Also, H7N9 is not transmitting from human to human at this time, but it is speculated that it is three mutations away.
Is this typical fear porn, or something more. Do pandemics still pose an existential threat to the first world in 2018?

Is an exact word for word carbon copy of articles on the swine flu from 1976 and 2009.

If they scare people, they will feel it is good to have our governments give more money for research. They cannot develop a vaccine till they know how it is going to mutate, but that does not mean they don't want money to research. This is just a fear tactic.

originally posted by: Whoisjohngalt

Do pandemics still pose an existential threat to the first world in 2018?

Well, absolutely!

Especially when you have government organizations working to either spread diseases or to hide and/or destroy the cure.

Going on-topic...

This sounds concerning. I did a little digging because I remember something we discussed in ATS a few months ago about possible future epidemics, and I found this:

WHO - List of Blueprint priority diseases

For the purposes of the R&D Blueprint, WHO has developed a special tool for determining which diseases and pathogens to prioritize for research and development in public health emergency contexts. This tool seeks to identify those diseases that pose a public health risk because of their epidemic potential and for which there are no, or insufficient, countermeasures. The diseases identified through this process are the focus of the work of R& D Blueprint. This is not an exhaustive list, nor does it indicate the most likely causes of the next epidemic.

Now it gets interesting:

February 2018 - Second annual review

Report of the meeting pdf, 460kb

The second annual review occurred 6-7 February, 2018. Experts consider that given their potential to cause a public health emergency and the absence of efficacious drugs and/or vaccines, there is an urgent need for accelerated research and development for*:

- Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF)
- Ebola virus disease and Marburg virus disease
- Lassa fever
- Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
- Nipah and henipaviral diseases
- Rift Valley fever (RVF)
- Zika
- Disease X

Now enlighten me on this:

Disease X represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease, and so the R&D Blueprint explicitly seeks to enable cross-cutting R&D preparedness that is also relevant for an unknown “Disease X” as far as possible

How did they knew about it? Were there any reports before this one?

I don't know, I just don't trust WHO. Maybe I'm seeing things where there isn't.

Maybe there is and it's right in front of us we can't even see.

Also, we should keep an eye on this because if this reaches Russia we're screwed.

World Cup currently occurring.

Hundreds of thousands tourists travelling all around the globe in half and a month.

a reply to: rickymouse

Crazy is building your ark after the flood has already come.

- Howard played by John Goodman.

a reply to: Whoisjohngalt

It seems like we're too far removed from even the epidemics of the 20th century and people have been lulled into thinking that taking # like this seriously is an overreaction to fear porn.

The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 infected about a third of everyone and wiped out 3-5% of the world's population, including something like 700k Americans at a time when the population was about 100 million. Scale that up to now and it would be like having 2.2 million people die. That's more people than die from heart disease, cancer, stroke, respiratory disease, diabetes (and some other causes) per year. It would be something like an 80% mortality increase in one year.

Does anyone *really* believe that there won't be worse viruses? And consider the differences in travel a century ago to today and what that implies for transmission.

"Reduce the surplus population" If it were only that easy.

originally posted by: vinifalou

originally posted by: Whoisjohngalt

Do pandemics still pose an existential threat to the first world in 2018?

Well, absolutely!

Especially when you have government organizations working to either spread diseases or to hide and/or destroy the cure.

Going on-topic...

This sounds concerning. I did a little digging because I remember something we discussed in ATS a few months ago about possible future epidemics, and I found this:

WHO - List of Blueprint priority diseases

For the purposes of the R&D Blueprint, WHO has developed a special tool for determining which diseases and pathogens to prioritize for research and development in public health emergency contexts. This tool seeks to identify those diseases that pose a public health risk because of their epidemic potential and for which there are no, or insufficient, countermeasures. The diseases identified through this process are the focus of the work of R& D Blueprint. This is not an exhaustive list, nor does it indicate the most likely causes of the next epidemic.

Now it gets interesting:

February 2018 - Second annual review

Report of the meeting pdf, 460kb

The second annual review occurred 6-7 February, 2018. Experts consider that given their potential to cause a public health emergency and the absence of efficacious drugs and/or vaccines, there is an urgent need for accelerated research and development for*:

- Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF)
- Ebola virus disease and Marburg virus disease
- Lassa fever
- Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
- Nipah and henipaviral diseases
- Rift Valley fever (RVF)
- Zika
- Disease X

Now enlighten me on this:

Disease X represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease, and so the R&D Blueprint explicitly seeks to enable cross-cutting R&D preparedness that is also relevant for an unknown “Disease X” as far as possible

How did they knew about it? Were there any reports before this one?

I don't know, I just don't trust WHO. Maybe I'm seeing things where there isn't.

Maybe there is and it's right in front of us we can't even see.

I think that before,"disease x" was a variable used to stand in for an unknown ,yet to be discovered,contagion with certain characteristics. Then this H7N9 came along and had the potential to be a "disaese x" so people are calling it that.

Alternative theory is that H7N9 was created to BE a "disease x". Doesnt make as much sense though. Youd think that if you were creating a plague, youd start out with something that is human to human transferable

It incubates in the sh@thole part of China where the Commies don't care if portions of their 1.4 billions die. If 30% get infected and 2 out of 3 die, that's 277 million dead in China alone. India would have similar numbers.
World wide that would be 1.46 billion dead.

The Royals over in Britain pray for this kind of culling. They have the money to help it along if they really are that evil.

a reply to: Whoisjohngalt

Makes sense.

I was just curious about the timing of this.

originally posted by: theantediluvian
a reply to: Whoisjohngalt

It seems like we're too far removed from even the epidemics of the 20th century and people have been lulled into thinking that taking # like this seriously is an overreaction to fear porn.

The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 infected about a third of everyone and wiped out 3-5% of the world's population, including something like 700k Americans at a time when the population was about 100 million. Scale that up to now and it would be like having 2.2 million people die. That's more people than die from heart disease, cancer, stroke, respiratory disease, diabetes (and some other causes) per year. It would be something like an 80% mortality increase in one year.

Does anyone *really* believe that there won't be worse viruses? And consider the differences in travel a century ago to today and what that implies for transmission.

I think that in more developed countries, the fight against natural pathogens is pretty one sided, given the current level of technology. During the spanish flu, there were no anti-viral drugs. Penicillin wasnt even a thing until 20 years after. I dont think we will see anything natural happening like the spanish flu in western civilization.
But, there is always the chance that the perfect strain could evolve.

a reply to: TinfoilTP


In China they pump growth hormones and antibiotics into animals at a rate that would make America blush. Fifty per cent of the population are now pre diabetic. This is where the resistant strains of disease are born. Add that to a high carb diet, and gut bacteria which are decimated by food antibiotics. You have a serious problem.

originally posted by: Whoisjohngalt

originally posted by: theantediluvian
a reply to: Whoisjohngalt

It seems like we're too far removed from even the epidemics of the 20th century and people have been lulled into thinking that taking # like this seriously is an overreaction to fear porn.

The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 infected about a third of everyone and wiped out 3-5% of the world's population, including something like 700k Americans at a time when the population was about 100 million. Scale that up to now and it would be like having 2.2 million people die. That's more people than die from heart disease, cancer, stroke, respiratory disease, diabetes (and some other causes) per year. It would be something like an 80% mortality increase in one year.

Does anyone *really* believe that there won't be worse viruses? And consider the differences in travel a century ago to today and what that implies for transmission.

I think that in more developed countries, the fight against natural pathogens is pretty one sided, given the current level of technology. During the spanish flu, there were no anti-viral drugs. Penicillin wasnt even a thing until 20 years after. I dont think we will see anything natural happening like the spanish flu in western civilization.
But, there is always the chance that the perfect strain could evolve.

If only they'd had something to combat the virus back then, so many lives saved. Something, I dunno.. like, a vac.. what's the word, vacuum? Vacc.. Vaccine !! That's the one.

Oh we all want vaccines when the plague has turned us all into zombies and we're hiding in the shadows avoiding the mutants trying to eat our brains, we'll strap shotguns to our forearms and carry 900 blades strapped variously to our bodies to get to the military base where the vaccine was made, to save humanity... this is in 2048 though. 2018 we're all "Down With Vaccines !!!"



Should a new strain of virus become prevalent, we will have to kiss our arses goodbye. Just recently we have people from asia and africa coming back from their old homes, spreading measles at medical centres and libraries. Had they encountered one of these new strains, and brought it back, the way society is with regard to preventing outbreaks, would have left us with so many frail and elderly being infected, going home, infecting everyone around them, and before it was identified, ... yibbida yibbida that's all folks.

a reply to: Whoisjohngalt

Nope practice run- when 5g cranks up at 60ghz which is the frequency that affects oxygen and in turn breathing you'll get the big one then.

Mother earth does everything to wipe us out.

I am not concerned about this bird flu as in this North it has not yet come, most of bird flu´s which has occured ( mostly in china ) last years has stayed in china and been reason of eating poultry there.

We should pay more attention in Africa, Ebola in Kongo and Undiagnosed hemorrhagic fever in Uganda ( either Ebola or Marburg, or something new ). Uganda

a reply to: Whoisjohngalt

I don't know how to delete my post, so I'm editing to blank.

originally posted by: khnum
a reply to: Whoisjohngalt

Nope practice run- when 5g cranks up at 60ghz which is the frequency that affects oxygen and in turn breathing you'll get the big one then.

What?

Kids in public school will spread every disease possible back to their homes. Used to happen when the kids lived at home. We get two or three colds every season because of that, now that they're out of the house, I haven't gotten sick in many years. Now the grand kids are getting into position to spread the sickies.

Eat well, exercise daily, take vitamins, wash your hands constantly, use sani-wipes at the stores, avoid contact with sick people and large crowds, and wear a face mask in public when things get really bad. I'm not big on vaccines, but if they have an effective one, best to take the chance on it at least to build up your immune system if you haven't been getting any colds for many years like myself.

Shaking hands and touching things in public is a main vector for getting sick. The old idea of door handles and toilet seats spreading disease is basically true. The old cough in the face is a good one too.

I prefer SARS on my PB&J.

Sure do miss the EbolaMaps Guy.