UAE Could Become the First Middle Eastern Country After Israel to Get the F-35

SHeesh when exactly will this kind of stuff come back to bite us in the a..... Soon I'm assuming. The Trump administration has agreed to consider a request by the UAE to buy the F-35. So we continue to accelerate this arms race and no doubt the Iranian government will turn to China and Russia for either the Su-57 or the J-20 or J-31 to help maintain parity in the gulf.

LockMart and other basically are saying that the network dependence (Israel is the only country so far that gets to tinker and do in country MRO stuff) would allow to basically "kill switch" them if say they undergo a revolution. But again we always seem to think these guys are stupid and could not figure out a way to use them like the Iranian did with the F-14 etc

www.thedrive.com...

My general rule of thumb is that by refusing to sell systems to allies is usually a net loss for us. They usually just buy something very similar in capability from someone else, so what good does it do us, really? We're just hurting our own bottom line.
In this case though, we are basically the only seller at the moment at this tier. Hard to weigh that against the geopolitics. F-35's in the Emirates (and the logistical footprint) could come in very handy one day.
I don't think I like it though. Maybe we can fast track them the first tranche of A models after we get replacements on the line. Or make them subsidize the B or C models to help out the Naval and Marine air.

a reply to: FredT

Honestly, the UAE has been one of our most stable allies in the region. We have several large bases there that we are running multiple campaigns out of and have been for many years. If anyone in the area was to get them, I'd rather it be them.

Its just too soon. The UAE – or any other state in the region – doesnt need F-35s at this point. The UAEAF is already flying the most advanced F-16s in the world. And back in 2014 they actually ask to purchase an additional 30 aircraft.

UAE is a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council and wouldn’t stand alone to face an Iranian threat. Between them, the GCCs states will have close to 500 4th gen fighter jets in their inventorys. They could take on Irans rag tag fighter force of 200 aircraft any day of the week if they have their # together – which they don’t. Selling F-35s to the UAE wont change that.

The UAE has to replace their Mirage fleet at some point in the near future, but there are other options to choose from. And other capability gaps in their defense posture against Iran, missile defense for example.

The danger in any of those deals is Saudi Arabia. Whether or not the UAE is a dependable ally of the US matters little, if the Saudi Arabian regime falls one day in is replaced by religious fanatics the rest of the gulf regimes will get swept away too.

I wasn't aware that the UAE was that good of an ally. I figured Jordan would be the first to be allowed to purchase F-35s. They're know to be strong allies of the US in that area.

-dex

a reply to: DexterRiley

They're too close to Israel. The UAE is 1200 miles away, and they don't have much tanker support to get them to Israel.

originally posted by: DexterRiley
I wasn't aware that the UAE was that good of an ally. I figured Jordan would be the first to be allowed to purchase F-35s. They're know to be strong allies of the US in that area.

-dex

Jordan is a comparativley poor country with different defense needs. The gulf states can afford to blow a couple of billion on unnecessary military equipment, Jordan cant.
And they dont really need to. Iran is far away and noone else threatens them. In fact, Israel was willing to step up to defend Hashemite rule in Jordan in the past and would do so in the future if necessary.

Israel would have no issues with Jordanian F-35. They'd probably set up joint logistical support.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: DexterRiley

They're too close to Israel. The UAE is 1200 miles away, and they don't have much tanker support to get them to Israel.

An interesting point.

I suppose it would not be out of the question for Israel to use their own F-35s in service to Jordan. It's in their best interest for a "friendly" Arab nation to serve as a buffer to the some of the more belligerent nations in the Middle East.

I understand that the Israelis have modified their F-35s with larger fuel tanks. What kind of range does that give them?

-dex

a reply to: DexterRiley

Israel has not done anything yet. Elbit Systems subsidiary Cyclone Ltd is supposed to work on external fuel tanks which will happen at some point.
Israel has also expressed interest in developing stealhty conformal fuel tanks, but this wont happen for many years.

www.f-16.net...

I was told by someone in the RAAF that the mission system in the F-35 has to approved by USA anyway prior to ops.

Didn't believe him, but the kill switch idea reminded me of that conversation.

Anyone heard anything similar?

Emiratis are assholes and don't have a terribly competent military, although my interactions with their air force has been more productive than their army. I'd be more worried about the state of their economy and their over reliance on indentured servants. My layman's opinion of it (I certainly am no economist) doesn't place too much faith in them retaining their high levels of revenue should the international community actually decide that slaves are bad.

a reply to: Forensick

I was told by someone in the RAAF that the mission system in the F-35 has to approved by USA anyway prior to ops.

What do you mean?

originally posted by: C0bzz
a reply to: Forensick

I was told by someone in the RAAF that the mission system in the F-35 has to approved by USA anyway prior to ops.

What do you mean?

My rudimentary understanding is that software and the like when added to the system are very similar to the over the air updates Tesla sends its cars etc albiet much more secure.

My understanding is that any changes to any system on the F-35 has to be approved back at the mothership to allow it to be uploaded etc. The RAAF will not be able to simply develop stuff and add it to their F-35's. it will have to be reviewed and approved etc.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: FredT

Honestly, the UAE has been one of our most stable allies in the region. We have several large bases there that we are running multiple campaigns out of and have been for many years. If anyone in the area was to get them, I'd rather it be them.

None of them are our allies in the long hual NONE of them. This is realpolitik at its best. Nobody EXCEPT Israel should get the F-35 in that region. And even they have a sketchy history with tech transfers etc.

a reply to: FredT

Of course they're not. But out of every country in the Middle East that's worth a damn, they've stood by us with the fewest number of BS games. They extremely rarely play the "no you can't use the base you've leased from us" crap, unlike other, so called better allies in the region.

Personally, I don't think anyone in the area should have been allowed access to them. But if we're going to sell them to anyone, they're the ones that I'd trust more than anyone else there.

www.defensenews.com...

originally posted by: Zaphod58
www.defensenews.com...

Yeah I figured as much. Saudi may be next

A way to keep neighbors in line...As the Israeli test pilot said in the F35,the entire middle east lights up..Just pick and choose which threat to annihilate..

a reply to: FredT

They have joined in the effort to get them.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: FredT

They have joined in the effort to get them.

yep www.thedrive.com...