Donald Trump's polling slump seems to have arrived

New national polling from CNN-ORC shows a wide swing toward Clinton over the past month. In early September, she trailed Trump by one point in the same poll — polling that was ahead of the trend showing the race narrowing. The new poll has Clinton up by five points, a six-point swing that seems to be in large part a function of her strong debate performance.

Clinton was trailing with men by 20 points; now she trails by four. She was trailing with independents, she now leads. For the past week or two, the national race has been fairly static, with Clinton enjoying about a three-point lead. (The RealClearPolitics average hasn't yet included the new CNN numbers.)
SOURCE

For those who have been claiming that the polls were rigged all along, this latest news is good evidence that they were real all along. Quoting from the article linked above:

The uptick from CNN is what we'd expect to see based on the extent to which people said [Clinton] won the debate.

That's proof enough for me to conclude that the polling has most likely been real all along.

As to what all of this means for Trump, barring a miracle, I think he's done. I hate to write that, but I have to be realistic. Trump has no momentum, and he's completely on the defensive.

Trump isn't using his best ammunition against Clinton either in my opinion. With all the talk on this forum of a possible looming war between the U.S. and Russia, I think the article below is very pertinent.

Instituting Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s no-fly zone in Syria would require going to war [with Russia], according to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
LINK

Should Trump start campaigning on the fact that a vote for Hillary Clinton could likely be a vote for a war with Russia?

I think that's a far more important issue than whether Clinton passed the bar exam when she was in her twenties. How about a simple message from Trump:

Voting for Clinton means war with Russia.

Or maybe he doesn't want to be president. He's gotten 4 billion in free press coverage, this may be just another "art of the deal"

Just an ass clown troll if you ask me, Hillary is the second most disliked candidate next to him in our lifetime. If he had half the composure of a fifth grader he'd have no problem beating her. My guess is he's throwing it.

To have legitimacy, Instituting a no fly zone requires the approval by the UN security council which Russia and China both sit on. They already vetoed several attempts by the US to introduce no fly zones in Syria.

They aren't going to change their stance about it. The US could say, hey you can't fly there, but this isn't going to stop Russia from helping the Syrian military clear their country of terrorists. Who wants terrorists in their country anywAy?

Without legitimacy granted by the UN security council the uS is powerless to stop the Russians. They could just start shooting down jets but that would look bad.

Give it time, the more desperate the US coalition becomes the more probability shoulder launched surface to air missiles will find their way into the hands of the insurgents (paid mercenaries) just like they did in Afghanistan.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
If he had half the composure of a fifth grader he'd have no problem beating her.

The problem is, he may not have half the composure of a fifth grader. Like most of us here, I don't know Trump personally and couldn't tell you what he's like in real life, but what's on display now is the same Donald we've seen in the media for 25 years. He's always come across as a dim bulb whenever he opens his mouth. Age hasn't made him any more coherent.

a reply to: intrptr

we are in uncharted waters here people.....just because russia and china sit on the UN doesnt mean anything if the other members decide to demote them or repeal their membership due to unapologetic human rights abuses or some other bs charge.

war with russia could go down easily either from Syria or Ukraine and Hillary WILL take us there....shes a killer, she enjoys it and she cant stop herself

So...

You want him to campaign on the prediction that somehow she will embroil the US in a war with Russia?

Right. Because Russia really wants that./sarcasm

Do you think Putin would not do what he wants to do if Trump is in office? You don't think Putin could play Trump like a fiddle?

I see Trump as far more dangerous to the stability of the world. Russia is acting out. Putin is doing what he always does, which is whatever will keep him looking strong and in power. That won't change regardless of who is our President

Answer this: who would be more likely to get into a pissing contest with Putin vs who would be more likely to employ diplomacy and non-violent tactics unless/until there is no other option but military intervention?

AB

a reply to: Profusion

Donald Trump's polling slump seems to have arrived

Well, according to Rasmussen, the slump also seems to have departed again:

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are in a virtual tie one week after their first debate.

The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Clinton with 42% support and Trump with 41%

Rasmussen White House Watch

Edit: It then, for the record, goes on to say that yesterday, it was Clinton 43%, Trump 40% and that the margin of error is +/- 2.5%p.
These surveys are based on 1500 responders which is quite a lot more than most surveys which comes in at very close to 1000 responders with a resulting margin of error at +/- 3%p .

a reply to: Profusion

Clinton clearly has the momentum and the next debate is right around the corner.

A huge crowd will continue to watch the next two debates, does anyone think Trump can step up to the plate and win any? Or is the rest of the election season gonna be about Trump raging?

The poll they just showed on tv has Trump nationwide 4 way poll leading by 2 points,,,,in a 2 way poll Hitlery has the small lead. There have been presidents elected in the past that were down by 30 points.

If Clinton has momentum, wouldn't you see that in the turn out of her speaking events? She needs her friends in the teachers unions, to bus in students for her events...that's not momentum

if you think she got a bounce from winning the first debate, wouldn't future debates also influence the election??

originally posted by: thinline
If Clinton has momentum, wouldn't you see that in the turn out of her speaking events? She needs her friends in the teachers unions, to bus in students for her events...that's not momentum

You still believe alt right media after there big fat Assange Wikileaks lie?

if you think she got a bounce from winning the first debate, wouldn't future debates also influence the election??

My opinion on these matters here

a reply to: Profusion

Nah--like with all polls, I call BS.

There's no way that the debate that I saw on television was so far in her favor, and that the things that she said would resonate with so many Americans, that the numbers would jump that much for real.

Only time will tell, but I think that polls are the media's way of the tail wagging the dog, since they know that the ignorant American public likes to jump on board with things they think are trendy. If one candidate is becoming so overwhelmingly popular, why wouldn't they jump on board with the (possibly) rigged results for the candidate that the majority of the media favors?

But like I said, only time will tell.

I think that they should both lose.

originally posted by: WilburnRoach
a reply to: Profusion

Clinton clearly has the momentum and the next debate is right around the corner.

A huge crowd will continue to watch the next two debates, does anyone think Trump can step up to the plate and win any? Or is the rest of the election season gonna be about Trump raging?

I think that next debate will cinch it for Clinton.

Especially, if more stuff comes out about Trump. And, of course, his mouth has no control.

a reply to: Profusion

538 - - Nate Silver agrees.

I just checked his site this morning.

How many months has the 'Clinton' momentum been going on? How many times did the MSM say Trump was done...was over...was down for the count.

It is the media folks. I have, during this election, come to the conclusion that it is worse than any of us have ever could have thought. A CNN poll for Clinton? Of Course. What is also odd is that the RCP average picks and chooses what polls they want.

They are both at a realistic 40%. There are 20% out there undecided. This is far from done. 2 debates left. The first was to feel her out. It was controlled by the media. You can say it was not but it is. Overwhelming. I am not going to say it changed the outcome because i still believe no one won. Neither.

a reply to: thinline I know right, she has no enthusiasm, crowd or credibility. BUT Ron Paul had Trump size rallies and Romney had crap so its not an indication of votes, but maybe it could be since this election is different.

originally posted by: Profusion
Should Trump start campaigning on the fact that a vote for Hillary Clinton could likely be a vote for a war with Russia?

I think that's a far more important issue than whether Clinton passed the bar exam when she was in her twenties. How about a simple message from Trump:

Voting for Clinton means war with Russia.

Bah!! Humbug!

At one point I hoped that maybe Trump could be the anti-world war three voice within all his noise, but his nonsensical view of world politics proved otherwise. Maybe he feels he can't tell it like it is as the public, and especially his voters, are woefully uninformed about the ME.

So let me state it for the record. IRAN, RUSSIA, and CHINA are part of one bloc. You can't say you are going to ease relations with one while saying you will be tough, or even threaten to bomb another.