Japan's Southern Triple Junction Fault Near Tokyo is Acting Up

Where this leads one can only guess, but it is Japan. Any size quake can happen at any time. At issue here is a 6.3 so far, along with a bunch of 5+'s:


earthquake.usgs.gov...

But the reason I am making this post is because of what you are not seeing, and the continuing smaller activity I am seeing on my rig in spectro. The fault is clearly agitated, with recurring 3+'s coming in every few minutes- and which are not being posted on USGS (they only post 4.5+'s worldwide).

This activity warrants a close eye, considering where it is. A big quake on that southern zone could send a raging tsunami right into Tokyo Bay. That would be seriously bad, considering a bay will concentrate the waves and make them much higher than already big.

What we are hoping that doesn't happen, to remind you, is another 6+ anytime soon, in which case Japan could be headed for another disaster.

I hope I am wrong, but I found a spot I suspect and made a post about it a long time ago:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

It's on the southern zone...

Is there any comparison to precursor activity in 2011?
Is this part of the same fault system?

originally posted by: Phage
Is there any comparison to precursor activity in 2011?
Is this part of the same fault system?

Question 1: I'd say not much yet, considering the precursor activity was a 7.2 many days before the big one.
Question 2: Yes. Note that this is the southern part of the fault, at the triple junction.

It is possible this is just belated aftershock activity from the 9.0, and a reaction to stress that was redistributed all up and down the fault after that big one. I hope so. Right now it is just looking like aftershock activity from the 6.3- BUT- there are A LOT of aftershocks. A little too many for a 6.3 if you ask me. Is why I am a bit concerned.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

1) Good.

2) I'm feeling lazy and knew you could provide a very quick answer.

originally posted by: TrueAmerican
BUT- there are A LOT of aftershocks. A little too many for a 6.3 if you ask me. Is why I am a bit concerned.

Its Japan though.

Approximately 1,500 earthquakes are recorded in Japan every year. The magnitude of each earthquake varies, and larger earthquakes between 4 and 7 on the Richter scale regularly occur

Hard to try to do any major predicting with such activity being the norm.

a reply to: Phage

Well, I just get a little nervous when I see those quakes coming in one after another like this, especially in Japan. Another is hitting as I type this. It's cool if they stay small, I suppose, but where there are small ones, the chances increase as well for bigger ones. The fault is moving. I can see it. Let's just hope it is mostly done, and the 6.3 is all she is bringing on the big side of things. Hold thy breath.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

I do not like tsunami,
I do not like them one bit.

I usually use RSOE for observing quakes around the globe, the nice thing is they will show all quakes small and big in "realtime".

And it does look like there is some activity of coast of Japan, it's not unusual as it happens quit often, some are even after shocks from the 9+ in 2011, they still occur, though the ones showing now are not connected to the 2011 quake i think, they are further south of the 2011 quake.

RSOE linky

a reply to: SaturnFX

I'm not really predicting. I am just offering a heads up, considering what I am seeing on spectro. Another 6+ though happens, and I will start predicting. And it won't be good.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Crap, i think when this played up last the more southern islands of polynesia copped it.

a reply to: Phage

i wouldn't either if i were you buddy. Imagine the waves you would cop, they'd look great and huge normally, but all that water..... stay safe mate.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

I'm with you on this TA. Intense activity in itself doesn't really worry me with regards to Japan - but when that activity is near plate junctions.............well, you have to worry for them don't you?

So how many nuclear power plants are going to blow now? Any in the area that might get hit?

I read somewhere (seeking info) that the full moon in either October or November will be very close to Earth.

I also understand that full moons might tidally stress the Earth and bring about more earthquake action.

We list the year’s 14 apogees and 13 perigees beneath the illustration below. This year’s farthest apogee happens on October 31, 2016 (406,662 kilometers or 252,688 miles), and the closest perigee comes on November 14, 2016 (356,509 kilometers or 221,524 miles). That’s a difference of over 50,000 kilometers or 30,000 miles. The variation in the moon’s apparent size in our sky is akin to that of a US quarter versus a US nickel.

source: earthsky.org...

But twice a month, during a full or new moon, tides are especially high because the moon, earth and sun all line up together. (These twice-monthly tides are known as "spring" tides.)

Big quakes can occur when this additional weight of tidal water strains geological faults, according to the study

his research team determined that nine of the 12 biggest quakes on record happened near or on days with full or new moons.

souce: www.usatoday.com...

Deleted. Logic fail on my part.

Update: The fault is still generating quakes.

One thing I haven't mentioned yet is the character of this seismicity. The waveform signatures of the bigger ones have that shape of a big fault moving, ripping, tearing... Seen it before in the big quakes. Very low frequency vibrations. It just does not look good at all. But hopefully it will calm ...

After reviewing the actual seismic data from one station there, I see now that there was a large foreshock prior to the 6.3. This could mean that the 6.3 is a foreshock too, although the probability is low. Still, just another thing spelling "I don't like the looks of this" to me...

a reply to: SaturnFX
1500??
try 140,000 ish
In 2015 there were 116,784 recorded earthquakes in Japan, all magnitudes, data from NIED, who do the quake work for the JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency)
of those
mag5= 131
mag6= 15
mag7= 1
mag8= 1

In 2016 Japan has had 138,541 **( see edit note below) so far, with 3 months to go
of those
mag5= 83
mag6= 13
mag7= 1

I agree with you, predicting Japan is near impossible, because it is so active, there are on average of 4-600 earthquakes PER DAY there.

Who would have thought that when the SW of Kyushu aftershocks were done that it would lead to the Kumamoto, Kyushu M6.5, M6.4, M7.3 and another 19,000 aftershocks.

Not saying something bigger isn't coming, it is, just a matter of when.
There was a Mag 8 right here on 4/11/1677, Lat: 35 Long: 141.5

and of course the Great Kanto 8.1 earthquake of 31/12/1703 Lat: 34.7 Long: 139.8, even closer to Tokyo

JMA will let us know when the next one is coming
www.jma.go.jp...

yeah right

**edit: 143,213 so far in 2016, that number was 7 days ago!

a reply to: ElGoobero
That's all hogwash, there is no relationship, its been discredited over and over, even here on ATS over and over.

NIED/JMA won't release the reviewed data (locations and mags) of the aftershocks of this one for another 8 hours but in the mean time you can see the waveform traces here, there are quite a few
www.hinet.bosai.go.jp...
the 6.3 was at 09:14:26JST

a reply to: muzzy

lol, holy moly muzzman, dems be real drum recordings. I thought those were long ago buried with David and Goliath???!!!

Thanks for the links and info. I pulled the raw seismic data direct from....from... umm, I'd rather not say. But I did. That's where I found the foreshock to the 6.3. And that is why this may not be over yet.