64% Probability of Solar Flare pointed right at earth

Just checked my solar resources, and currently there is a 64% Probability of a Solar flare in the next 24 hours, and it is pointed right at earth.

The data suggests over a 50% probability factor of either an M class or X class flare.

Stay tuned ...

originally posted by: smirkley
Just checked my solar resources, and currently there is a 64% Probability of a Solar flare in the next 24 hours, and it is pointed right at earth.

The data suggests over a 50% probability factor of either an M class or X class flare.

Stay tuned ...

Care to share your resources so others can look into it as well?

University of Bradford solar flare monitor as served by my NASA SWx app.

spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk...

a reply to: smirkley

How will this impact my ability to play Pokémon Go?

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus
a reply to: smirkley

How will this impact my ability to play Pokémon Go?

I suspect a small increase in the probability of finding more fire types.

Nice, it's been so quite lately..... I usually check the magnetometers once a week and it's been pretty flat.

Some nice pictures of the earth facing sun spots in the video. However the spots seem to be decreasing in magnetic mixing thus the chances of anything major is decreasing as of 5am this morning.
youtu.be...

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

It shouldnt effect you at all. Just keep staring at the screen while the world keeps turning. One of the two will end some day, and you may not even notice it.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus
a reply to: smirkley

How will this impact my ability to play Pokémon Go?

Genius LOL, you should be on the stage HAHAHAHA, thanks for the laugh

I doubt we'll get an X, but maybe an M. In fact, if we get an X... I'll never get on the internet again. (That's a space weather joke.) The Kp is pretty low... but just the same, Nice post! I will be watching more closely today! I did heliophysics for the Air Force a number of years ago. Here is some more info:

spaceweather.com...
Updated at: 2016 Jul 16 2200 UTC

FLARE 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
CLASS M 20 % 20 %
CLASS X 01 % 01 %

There are two big sunspot groups that are directly facing Earth, and one of them has an unstable magnetic field that poses a threat for M-class solar flares...but they really only cause brief radio blackouts that affect Earth's polar regions.

You might like this page as well: www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Jax

originally posted by: smirkley
Just checked my solar resources, and currently there is a 64% Probability of a Solar flare in the next 24 hours, and it is pointed right at earth.

The data suggests over a 50% probability factor of either an M class or X class flare.

Stay tuned ...

Right, just what we needed!!!

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus
a reply to: smirkley

How will this impact my ability to play Pokémon Go?

solar flares do infact interfere with the operations of GPS satellites, (which are required for Pokemon Go) so depending on the severity of such flare it may not effect them, or it may take them out completely, which would halt all pokemon go'ers until the sats were repaired.

M Class staying at 53%
X Class increased to 52%
Total flare probability staying at 64%

Several sunspots at center of the solar disc. If a flare pops off, the resulting CME would almost certainly be in the direction of Earth. But this isn't a rare occurrence, we're just past the peak of the last solar cycle, during which we took several hits from strong flares.

After witnessing two jaw-dropping, indescribably beautiful displays of Aurora (Northern Lights) many years ago, I've been fascinated with the the interactions between the sun and Earth's geomagnetic field. Here are a couple other links for those who are interested.

Space Weather Website

Geomagnetic Dashboard

Real-time Northern & Southern Aurora Ovals

And I don't know exactly how to read this last one but it's a chronological list of solar events, and
It looks really cool!

Yeah... We still have power
Back to caching pokemon

Although the earth is no longer in the line of fire, the numbers have still increased.

M Class: 59%
X Class: 61%
Total Probability : 66%

originally posted by: smirkley
Although the earth is no longer in the line of fire, the numbers have still increased.

M Class: 59%
X Class: 61%
Total Probability : 66%

In what timeframe ? the 24 hour deadline is up
where do you get the % chance from

.....and nothing happened.

I had such a planet x vibe. Just assuming nothing would happen...again...as usual.

Is this what's causing the ridiculous amount of heat we have at the moment? I know very little about flares so don't know if they can heat the earth up or not?


Anyways, to damned hot what ever is causing it