Trump polling over 50% nationally...the ceiling is broken

Even Salon magazine says Trump will crush Hillary. SALON MAGAZINE (hates Trump) is unabashedly liberal.

www.salon.com...

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
a reply to: theantediluvian

Presumptive polls in January of 2008 had McCain and Romney beating Obama by double digits. Not only did Obama take the Dem nomination, he also beat McCain fairly easily...

National level polling while there are multiple candidates for each party still alive are extremely inaccurate. There are a lot of GOP voters who aren't presently Trump voters and are holding out hope for their candidate to such an extreme as to refuse consideration of Trump right now. After he secures the nomination, the polls will reflect a more honest assessment as these GOP voters come to their senses and recognize that money, position, and prosperity trump ideologies and fall into line behind the Trump Express.

Your wishful thinking aside, why is it that the Trump supporters are admonishing me for citing polls in a thread about Trump's poll numbers and not similarly cautioning the OP about the validity of poll numbers?

Confirmation bias much?

originally posted by: theantediluvian
Your wishful thinking aside, why is it that the Trump supporters are admonishing me for citing polls in a thread about Trump's poll numbers and not similarly cautioning the OP about the validity of poll numbers?

Confirmation bias much?

1. I wasn't admonishing you, I was correcting you.
2. Different scenario. The poll cited by the OP is based on a zero-sum game, whereas early head-to-head polls with others still alive is far from a zero sum. It's like asking a Red Sox fan at the All Star Break "Who would you cheer for in a Blue Jays-Dodgers World Series?" A lot of the fans are gonna either balk at the question entirely or answer 'Dodgers' because the Sox are directly fighting the Jays for the AL East... BUT, ask them the same question before game 1 of a series that actually is Jays vs Dodgers, and you'll get a much more direct response.

Make no mistake, I think polling is BS in general... but based on my personal observations, Trump is damned close to the support numbers he needs to take possession of the White House next January.

a reply to: Khaleesi

Even Salon magazine says Trump will crush Hillary. SALON MAGAZINE (hates Trump) is unabashedly liberal.

No. One writer for Salon gave some opinions. That same author (Steve Almond) was saying only 12 days ago that he was endorsing Trump because Trump would have such a difficult time in the general election and would mobilize the left.

Also, from the article you linked:

Among these, let me nominate one more: listening to Hillary partisans explain to those of us who support Bernie Sanders just how naive we are. Only Hillary, we are told, has a real shot at winning in November. She’s the only one with a realistic grasp of how Washington works, whose moderate (and modest) policy aims might, realistically, be enacted. It often sounds as if Clinton’s central pitch to voters isn’t that she has a moral vision for the country, but that she owns the franchise on realism.

As I said, opinions from one guy. The fact that he writes for Salon doesn't make his opinion any more or less credible to me. Do you hold Salon writer's opinions in some particularly high regard? I'm assuming not.

a reply to: theantediluvian


I don't confine my reading to strictly one viewpoint. I read left leaning and right leaning. Liberal and conservative. Blog, news articles and everything in between. Actually, I LOVE reading Camille Paglia's articles. She used to be a regular contributor to Salon. I don't always agree with her but she is refreshing.

a reply to: theantediluvian

No, I admire your investigative work. What I am stating is that as the field thins he is picking up that momentum. When there are too many players you can see lower numbers for any of the candidates. Christie and Carson, dropped, and it seems that after the endorsement they have changed sides.

This polling was also done before this past weekend. It wil be interesting to see polls this weekend after these primaries.

originally posted by: Sremmos80
a reply to: RoadCourse

So single issue voting huh? Really productive way to choose who might lead the nation.

Sue me.

a reply to: theantediluvian

Propaganda, Trump is the only one to beat hillery. all her wins are smoke and mirrors

Polls have never been wrong? (sarcasm) seriously, I don't think polls are going to show anything meaningful until the selected candidates on both sides shares with the nation who their choice of VP is going to be. With the selections and animosity occurring in our nation...I want to seriously vet the VP choice since no matter how protected our president is...assassination in times of a divided country is a major concern.

Anyone with any common sense, knows that polls are nonsense. Just a tool, for the Media, to create a fantasy endpoint. Polls create rage, hysteria, a mines better than yours attitude. And just about everyone knows that. Depends which side of the poll you fall on. LOL Reality is, the polls may be able to get close in some regions but other areas are just too far out in the ether to be able to get. And then what happens when the Polling numbers come back and its the exact opposite to what adheres to the people giving the poll, they just skew the numbers in some last ditch effort to maintain a sense of sanity. When in their hearts they know that a political train has started to roll, is gaining speed, and doesnt look to be loosing much traction.

originally posted by: theantediluvian
The latest national polls (Mar 9) show either Hillary or Sanders beating Trump by a large margin. RealClearPolitics:

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Clinton 51, Trump 38 Clinton +13

General Election: Trump vs. Sanders NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Sanders 55, Trump 37 Sanders +18
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton ABC News/Wash Post Clinton 50, Trump 41 Clinton +9

Predictive markets are all favoring Hillary too.

Come November 9th, conservative voters are going to wish they'd jumped on the bandwagon of somebody less divisive.

you cant do that, they only like ONE poll and that ONE poll beats all other polls.

That one poll is beautiful, its probably the best poll they have ever seen, theres never been another poll like it. Infact its their favorite poll.

If another poll comes out , its stupid , that poll doesnt mean anything, its probably a lobbyists poll, because they hate winners.

This poll is the real one, despite all other polls, until this poll says different, then they are just lobbyists too, because we only like winning polls.

originally posted by: antar
a reply to: theantediluvian

Propaganda, Trump is the only one to beat hillery. all her wins are smoke and mirrors

So all her wins are smoke and mirrors but Trumps are genuine? Awesome logic.
Also, Trump will not beat Hillary, not even close

originally posted by: theantediluvian

There's no real way of knowing which states will ultimately prove to be swing states but lists for likely swing states this election:

You're conflating swing states with battleground states. Every candidate knows (really ought to know) which states are swing states and target some of them as part of their electoral strategy. The battleground states are the ones that end up too close to call until the actual voting.

And as for the rest of your analysis...putting aside the issue of one poll vs another for the time being, I think it's silly to make a straight line projection from here to November. Heck, even an honest straight line projection would at least account for Trump's upward trend vs Hillary's downward trend.

Remember, she's going to have to be indicted probably no later than this summer when they've gone through all the emails. That and she has clearly been struggling with the pace of the campaign so far. It's more likely than not that we are already passed peak Hillary.

a reply to: burdman30ott6

1. I wasn't admonishing you, I was correcting you.

I won't rule it out completely but it would be a very rare day when you could actually correct anything I say.

2. Different scenario. The poll cited by the OP is based on a zero-sum game, whereas early head-to-head polls with others still alive is far from a zero sum. It's like asking a Red Sox fan at the All Star Break "Who would you cheer for in a Blue Jays-Dodgers World Series?" A lot of the fans are gonna either balk at the question entirely or answer 'Dodgers' because the Sox are directly fighting the Jays for the AL East... BUT, ask them the same question before game 1 of a series that actually is Jays vs Dodgers, and you'll get a much more direct response.

Firstly, that's completely irrelevant to the point I made in my response to the OP which was that the increase in support among Republican primary voters (as gauged by the poll) shouldn't be taken to indicate that Trump has gained any support among the rest of the electorate.

Do you agree or disagree?

Secondly, that was a lot of unnecessary analogy to illustrate your wishful thinking that both the polls I cited are skewed by likely GOP voters who are only claiming they'll vote for Clinton over Trump because they're holding out hope for their first choices. That's your opinion. I scanned a few of the poll result PDFs and I didn't see head to head question results broken down by political affiliation let alone by first choice. Did you?

Make no mistake, I think polling is BS in general... but based on my personal observations, Trump is damned close to the support numbers he needs to take possession of the White House next January.

If there's anything less reliable than polls, it's random personal observations.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t

originally posted by: theantediluvian
Come November 9th, conservative voters are going to wish they'd jumped on the bandwagon of somebody less divisive.

Oh come on! That would require honest retrospection of where they went wrong. There is no way any of that is happening. Count on them instead cooking up some bat#, insane conspiracy theory that the Democrats stole the election from them instead.

Some past elections seem to support the theory that the democrats stole the election.

a reply to: Thecakeisalie

This is one of many reasons why I voted for Trump.

Drumpf has the highest unfavorability numbers of all candidates and that includes Hillary.

Normally I would dismiss general election polls in March, but Drumpf and Hillary are already well known and people know what they will get with either of them

So yes I do believe Hillary would make mince meat out of Drumpf in the general election

a reply to: matafuchs

"He can't win" yet many in this thread post in other threads how me must be stopped. Political posturing at its finest here at ATS. If the libs are so sure that Hillary will win why even bother talking down Trump?

Sorry, you're all wrong.

Clinton for the win.

originally posted by: BIGPoJo
a reply to: matafuchs

"He can't win" yet many in this thread post in other threads how me must be stopped. Political posturing at its finest here at ATS. If the libs are so sure that Hillary will win why even bother talking down Trump?

Trying to make the scales fall from your weary eyes?