Statistician Says That Trump Will Be the Next President !!

This guy has a model that can predict presidential election winners, obviously it is based on the first sequence of votes, how many votes, candidates etc. The model gives Trump a 97%-99% chance of beating Clinton. Keep in mind that the 104 elections it talks about predicting is using info from the past to test the accuracy of the model. According to the guy, its only failed one and that election had massive cheating.

You guys don't need a model though to tell you that, its about as obvious as Romney having no chance against Obama, we all knew it just like we know that Hilary doesn't have a chance against Trump, unless they kill him and it will be a republican that kills him. If You disagree then You need to pay more attention. The head to head polls are irrelevant at this point due to age of poll, candidate count and the main election is long away.

The things Trump is accused of is peanuts compared to what Hilary has done, she is under FBI investigation, the FBI is not a right wing conspiracy and just because she wont be prosecuted because she is protected by democratic prosecutors does not make it ok. Point being, Trump has months of scandals, lies and videos of her calling young black men "superpredators" and videos of Hilary affirmatively stating that she is against gay marriage, that was before she was running for president, videos of her emails proving that she lied about Benghazi. Hilary will have some good ones for sure about Trump, they are usually more funny than damaging.

The barrage of negative commercials about HILARY will play to no end and they will be BAD and I mean BAD. There will be commercials about her calling the women names who her husband had affairs with and taking his side saying the women were lying. Flip flop commercials and all of It will be true. President trump next year guys !


www.usnews.com...

I think it's unlikely.

But your post will undoubtedly be wildly popular.

For some reason the short-fingered vulgarian has become quite popular in these parts. Which I don't understand at all.

I guess I've been too charitable about the real beliefs of some of the right wing folks around here.

a reply to: Medicator

Let's hope so!!!

a reply to: Medicator

They both have flipflopped on many things, just seems lots of their respected supporters ignore it.

Glad this guy has his model, I some how doubt he could honesty predict that. Was reading some comments and his model predicted that Barry would just nudge out Romney, well that wasn't the case.

Tried to find what he used in the model, but not dice, think that would be interesting to see.

a reply to: Medicator

Norpoth's model has correctly predicted the outcome of every single presidential election since 1912 – save one, the election of 1960, which some believe was rigged. It uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary coupled with electoral cycle patterns to determine the likely outcome of the general election.

Very interesting. Though it isn't quite sufficient enough for me to make a prediction, I think we can garner the same results just by watching the zoo of this race.

I am not worried. Because this is just a stir in a glass of water, concerning the total number of voters.

In the real contest, anyone who annoys so many non-WASPs like Trump will provide heavy support for his opponent.

If you really think that this is your best candidate for presidency.

originally posted by: Medicator

we know that Hilary doesn't have a chance against Trump, unless they kill him and it will be a republican that kills him. If You disagree then You need to pay more attention.

the FBI is not a right wing conspiracy and just because she wont be prosecuted because she is protected by democratic prosecutors does not make it ok. videos of her emails proving that she lied about Benghazi.

The There will be commercials about her calling the women..... Flip flop commercials and all of It will be true. President trump next year guys !

www.usnews.com...

I think your biases are getting in your way.

For sure Clinton is protected by democratic prosecutors but they are just the people you can see. Its the people above them that you cannot see that I recommend you identify and study, and the people above them and so on.

We must escape the prisons of our own mind, which in many cases is belief in a ideological based organisation, and learn to see puppet masters as puppet masters. The puppet masters at the top have their own agenda and happily work through both sides of politics.

I suspect they have want Clinton and if they want her she will get in.

Politics is a funny game I read a good article once in which it related that sometimes TPTB run foil candidates. Some times to get their person up, they back the unbackable to suck votes from their rival. When the time is right they will then drop that candidate, starve them of money and boost their real candidate to get them home at the finishing post.

Their plans don't always pan out so then they resort to election rigging to get their puppet home.

Its possible that we are being somewhat naive in reading things at face value. However I would suggest most people who visit this site regularly are not such persons.

Interesting. Thanks for sharing. In one of my classes last week )made up of primarily 18-20yr old mellinium's; the overwhelmingly majority is voting Trump. For most of them, this is their first election and have followed Trump on reality TV....... hmm

"Lies, damn lies and statistics"- Balfour

Does his model include the equation of r=HC2 ?

In English, rigged = Hilary Clinton squared.

Lol... statistician giving numbers for an election that is bought, not voted for.

Funny

This is not Statistics. This is a "prediction". There are a lot of prediction models. It's easy to find models that are successful, accidentally successful. It's a game of chance and just like a game of chance, models like that can be historically perfect in predictions but - seriously - it means nothing.

good news