The Numbers Say That A Major Global Recession Has Already Begun

I certainly am no expert in the global economy but as a lay person with many friends in different countries they are all saying business basically sucks. Tourism to exports, car parts (even cars themselves) to motorcycles have all had sales fall to low levels... IMO because people just don't have the disposal income they once enjoyed and were able to save... for some grand purchase or trip.. and this is world wide, not just in your locale..

Countries around the world come out and make bold statements about their GDP growth to only have to revise their statements down after the real numbers come in.

We all have heard the doom porn over the years about a dollar crash and world economy; frankly, that doom porn is rather old.. Does not mean it can't happen though.. Mankind seems to always be like the frog in the slowly heating water pale while a few frogs are standing outside croaking "get out, get out"!.. Problem is how do we get out ?

By Michael Snyder

The biggest bank in the Western world has just come out and declared that the global economy is “already in a recession”. According to British banking giant HSBC, global trade is down 8.4 percent so far this year, and global GDP expressed in U.S. dollars is down 3.4 percent. So those who are waiting for the next worldwide economic recession to begin can stop waiting. It is officially here.

As you will see below, money is fleeing emerging markets at a blistering pace, major global banks are stuck with huge loans that will never be repaid, and it looks like a very significant worldwide credit crunch has begun. Just a few days ago, I explained that the IMF, the UN, the BIS And Citibank were all warning that a major economic crisis could be imminent. They aren’t just making this stuff up out of thin air, but most Americans still seem to believe that everything is going to be just fine. The level of blind faith in the system that most people are demonstrating right now is absolutely astounding.

The numbers say that the global economy has not been in this bad shape since the devastating recession that shook the world in 2008 and 2009. According to HSBC, “we are already in a dollar recession”…

www.activistpost.com...

A little something from a different source:

Andy Haldane, Bank of England chief economist, describes the unfolding pattern of events as a three-part crisis. Act one was in 2007-08 in Britain and the US. Buoyed for the previous decade by absurdly high inflows of globally generated credit that created false booms, they suddenly found their overconfident banks had wildly lent too much. Collateral behind newfangled derivatives was worthless. Money flooded out, leaving Britain’s banking system bust, to be bailed out by more than £1tn of liquidity and special injections of public capital.

Act two was in Europe in 2011-12, when it became obvious that the lending had been made on the incorrect assumption that all eurozone countries were equal. Again, money flooded out and Europe only just held the line with extraordinary printing of money by the European Central Bank and tough belt-tightening measures in overborrowed countries such as Portugal, Greece and Ireland. It might have been unfair, but it worked.

Now act three is beginning, but in countries much less able to devise measures to stop financial contagion and whose banks are more precarious. For global finance next flooded the so-called emerging market economies (EMEs), countries such as Turkey, Brazil, Malaysia, China, all riding high on sky-high commodity prices as the China boom, itself fuelled by wild lending, seemed never-ending. China manufactured more cement from 2010-13 than the US had produced over the entire 20th century. It could not last and so it is proving.

www.theguardian.com...

topdocumentaryfilms.com...

originally posted by: ressiv
topdocumentaryfilms.com...

Thanks for that link they have some decent videos..

It's not in a recession the landscape of the economy is changing because of technology and global integration.

originally posted by: onequestion
It's not in a recession the landscape of the economy is changing because of technology and global integration.

You may be correct however where I am overseas they talk about a global recession all the time...... and they did not write the linked articles.. Exports....DOWN....Imports....Down..Tourist have dried up except for Chinese guided tours). A ton of rice last year sold for 1400 of the local currency.. Now the same ton will sell for 800 if you are lucky.. Commodities you would think would be stable or increase (not counting oil) but nadda if anything there is deflation going on in many parts of the world..

a reply to: 727Sky

It has to do with the rise in rent which has depleted any extra money that many people have. For example, 10 years ago an apartment I lived in cost 650 dollars a month and that same apartment today they now want 1000 a month which is a 35 percent increase. My pay has basically stayed the same but to live in the same place I would now have to pay 35 percent more. Ever since the housing collapse the 1 percent have raised apartment rent through the roof to where people are just trying to get by. I moved into an apartment for 850 and a new company just took over and it looks like they want to raise this place to 1000 as well. How do these rich people expect people to continue to pay this absurd rent and buy items to help the economy it just can't be done unless you want to go into debt and then not be able to pay it. We are like the oil of the earth and we are getting sucked dry by all the companies sucking the life out of us. The oil will soon run out and things will come to a halt.

Wanted to add one more thing. The other thing that changed as well is Obama care. Many people didn't have insurance are now forced to purchase it or pay a fine. So not only do you have to pay 35 percent more rent you now have to pay for your insurance if you didn't have it before.

In order for there to be ANOTHER global recession it would be necessary to have come out of the previous one, right?

When did that happen then? 'cos it surely passed me by.

a reply to: 727Sky

Ditto

Here in NZ there have been whispers of a recession for a while but no-one will come out and actually say it.
The signs are all there though, same as the last one and the one before that.

Ive been through a number of them and have been warning people for a while, and up till recently all I got was "nah, your wrong bro they fixed all that in the last one and Teflon John says its all good".
But recently the sheeple have been gettin concerned. Most only acknowledge it when it directly affects them and now it is.

We have property hyper-inflation at a level that I have never seen before eg. av Auckland house price in 2007 about 450k now 850k, rents are climbing rapidly, wages remain the same for most.
1st home buyers havnt a sh..t show in hell of getting into the property market (thats the "Kiwi dream" gone. Renters for ever now).

Massive drop in dairy prices (our largest export), private debt levels soaring, stock markets down etc.

Our esteemed dictator spiels the same old "the fundamentals are strong" sh..t..what ever that means.

Ive just gone from about 45hrs a week to 25hrs, but I did get a 5 cent per hr pay rise, yeha (I know, dont spend it all at once).

Im just waiting for my inevitable rent increase.

In my area its 8% unemployed 26% youth unemployment. So its not just a matter of "just get another job" when they are not there..(ive been hard out applying for another one)

Av wage increase 1%, inflation 3.5% since 2008. Wages have been eroded since the 80s.

Weve never had as many millionaires as now.

The average Jo(ne) never really came out of the last one and now its happening again.

Its same old sh..t another day

a reply to: 727Sky

So I woke up this morning and went onto yahoo and saw this article about a guy in San Francisco that is a software engineer and living in a van because of the high rent. I felt I should link the article.

Rent is so high in San Francisco that I’m a software engineer and I live in a van

qz.com...

Funding wars and investing in armies/weapons and ammunition.. has that effect on the economy.

Our money, taken and spent by the governments, who invest in evil and destruction.

No wars = stable economy.

originally posted by: Elementalist
Funding wars and investing in armies/weapons and ammunition.. has that effect on the economy.

Our money, taken and spent by the governments, who invest in evil and destruction.

No wars = stable economy.

OR...it frees up money for more black projects......for the next war ! hahaha

About 10 years ago when all the talking heads were saying rent, don't buy.... Almost like a trap was laid, No ?

Now many could not afford to buy if they wanted to.. I am so thankful I don't owe anyone anything and the house/farm is paid off ...plus we pay no TAXES on the property..... so in my way of thinking we actually own the property... In the States I was paying right at 6000USD with taxes and insurance for the last house I thought I owned.... per year..

a reply to: 727Sky

Global GDP is a mix of all countries GDP. I just looked at the World Bank and you can definitely see the world GDP drivers - USA and China. Link

What we need to dig into is what sectors are driving those GDPs. As we know, a lot of production left the USA for China and India.

Japan being the 3rd largest in GDP is on the decline.
Russia being 10th is also in the decline.

In fact, looking at the top 10 alone 1/2 are on the rise and 1/2 are dropping or relatively flat.

The graph linked in the article reference ZeroHedge. It references HSBC but I can't find an actual report or news release from HSBC, just a little weird.

a reply to: LightSource

The other thing that changed as well is Obama care. Many people didn't have insurance are now forced to purchase it or pay a fine. So not only do you have to pay 35 percent more rent you now have to pay for your insurance if you didn't have it before.

Very true and I have to deal with the business end of the Obamacare issue. My company can't give raises because our expenses went up from Obamacare. Obamacare raised many taxes on business, and created new taxes.
People who choose to pay the Obamacare fines will do so to keep their own costs down, but the fines are planned to go up too.

99.7% of US businesses are small businesses under 500 employees. They can't afford Obamacare or a raise in the minimum wage so they lay off people when expenses go up. www.sbecouncil.org...

a reply to: bulrush

I am not American, just to be clear.
BUT...every single thing you have said is related to profit, the only thing that seems to mean anything to you is profit.

I would be ashamed if I were you, your world is falling apart but what?

a reply to: Jonjonj

Could you explain how you got that from his words?

It sounds like you formed a belief early on and erroneously tied everything into it.

originally posted by: pl3bscheese
a reply to: Jonjonj

Could you explain how you got that from his words?

It sounds like you formed a belief early on and erroneously tied everything into it.

I could explain it but it would mean just reposting the whole post. Try reading it again.

a reply to: Jonjonj

Why are you being so passive aggressive?

I guess you realize you're about to be called out further so would rather avoid embarrassment.

Your call.

originally posted by: LightSource
a reply to: 727Sky

So I woke up this morning and went onto yahoo and saw this article about a guy in San Francisco that is a software engineer and living in a van because of the high rent. I felt I should link the article.

Rent is so high in San Francisco that I’m a software engineer and I live in a van

qz.com...

It depends on her wage really. In SF you're not going to get by without roommates on anything less than 80k and potentially even 100k.

I've known lots of people in SF in the tech sector (say a degree and 5 years or less experience) that don't get a car either. They sleep in a cot under their desk, do laundry and shower at work, and that's basically it. The whole situation is rapidly deteriorating.

I've actually considered the same thing at times, at the last second I was presented an alternative but I was nearly living out of my car too. It's not a good spot to be in.

Also, remember the guy from New York who ran as an Independent on the platform of "The Rent is too Damn High!"? He's running again.
en.wikipedia.org...

originally posted by: pl3bscheese
a reply to: Jonjonj

Why are you being so passive aggressive?

I guess you realize you're about to be called out further so would rather avoid embarrassment.

Your call.

"My company can't give raises because our expenses went up from Obamacare. Obamacare raised many taxes on business" This is bull# because to claim raises can't be given for this reason is...what it is.

"99.7% of US businesses are small businesses under 500 employees. They can't afford Obamacare or a raise in the minimum wage so they lay off people when expenses go up." Any company that can not afford to pay minimum wage should think twice about being a company, full stop.

You go ahead and call me out, smart arse.

the one difference now is in the U S, we still have an expanding economy......oil boom ....but I see the markets doing last ditch effort type stuff so.......I have a special trading system lately called TEOTWAWKI.....he he