SETI: On the Verge of a Breakthrough?

originally posted by: SBargisen
a reply to: Vdogg

I don't believe that, honestly.

With intelligence comes respect and reasoning. They would have nothing to fear from us, nor would they have anything to harvest on Earth. Everything on Earth is abundant everywhere in the universe.

Then explain all of humanities wars.

I see so many people say "Well aliens gotta be peaceful because...", or "Well aliens gotta be warlike because..."

Why? I would figure there are a good mixture of good, and bad. Xenophobic aliens who want to destroy every other race, space-faring civilizations who want to bring peace to the universe. The possibilities are really endless.

originally posted by: jjsr420

originally posted by: SBargisen
a reply to: Vdogg

I don't believe that, honestly.

With intelligence comes respect and reasoning. They would have nothing to fear from us, nor would they have anything to harvest on Earth. Everything on Earth is abundant everywhere in the universe.

Then explain all of humanities wars.

Ditto. If the height of intelligence is reflected by the (deceitful) image of freedom and democracy so venerably spearheaded by the USA, which has contributed to, or directly caused, so many conflicts and violence across the world, then perhaps intelligence is not the best way for life to exist. After we make ourselves extinct on this planet, it's the more primitive life forms that will survive and carry on the "organic" history of Earth.

Maybe, the entire Universe is warming and they built an adjustable sunshade between themselves and their star.

Something we might need to start working on say 20 years ago...

originally posted by: raymundoko
a reply to: slip2break

You will be disappointed. His conclusion?

Source

Invoking alien engineering to explain an anomalous astronomical
phenomenon can be a perilous approach to
science because it can lead to an “aliens of the gaps”
fallacy (as discussed in §2.3 of Wright et al. 2014b) and
unfalsifiable hypotheses. The conservative approach is
therefore to initially ascribe all anomalies to natural
sources, and only entertain the ETI hypothesis in cases
where even the most contrived natural explanations fail
to adequately explain the data

I didn't expect the paper the conclude in any other way. No one will evoke aliens until there is a indisputable smoking gun. To do otherwise would be professional suicide. Sorry if I gave a different impression in my previous posts.

But I stand by the title of the thread. If these objects continue to be observed SETI will remain fixated on getting more and better data of Tabby's star. Imagine a hypothetical world where the WOW! signal kept repeating periodically and the resources that would have been dumped into getting a better answer as to what it was and where it originated.

Until we get a better solution than multiple massive non period comet clouds, the above hypothetical world is the one we are now entering. And that solution to the flux only answers two of the observed dips. Not other oddities that are being seen.

The breakthrough if any might not be realize for decades... but we might look back on this as being moment everything changed

originally posted by: jjsr420
Super interesting! S&F OP!

Im no atrophysicist, but wouldnt a broken up comet fall into a regular orbit around a star? Wouldnt that mean its transits would be evenly spaced?

Some would but many would be consumed by the star. I think what the scientists are suggesting is that the disturbed comets are falling into the star and breaking up as they get close.

The problem with the comet theory is that you would need a really dense formation of comets to block out so much light. Since objects in space that are close to each other will gravitationally interact, they tend to disperse over time. That kind of undermines the theory. The number of comets would have to be enormous and they would all have to arrive at the star around the same time. Then 5 days later they are all gone. Weird, huh?

As for other options, I think they were ruling out a dust cloud because it should glow in infrared. A debris field from a planetary collision is too rare of an event and since the phenomenon happened more than once at irregular intervals that is considered unlikely also.

So this why they are taking the megastructure idea seriously, because there are no good explanations.

originally posted by: jjsr420
I see so many people say "Well aliens gotta be peaceful because...", or "Well aliens gotta be warlike because..."

Why? I would figure there are a good mixture of good, and bad. Xenophobic aliens who want to destroy every other race, space-faring civilizations who want to bring peace to the universe. The possibilities are really endless.

Long as we dont encounter space Merika. Dont want some xeno freedom dropped on me

Dont fancy meeting space putin either for that matter

Another great article describing what they will do next-

How Astronomers Plan To Investigate

Other forms of the concept include Dyson swarms, which instead of enclosing the entire star in solar collectors would instead encircle it in one or a few orbits. This kind of structure wouldn't block as huge of a percentage of the star's light.

Nor is it likely to be a clot of dust and rocks. Those sorts of debris disks are only known to occur around young stars, and this star is not a young 'un. Plus, debris usually gives off extra infrared radiation, which is not the case here. The data has been validated by the Kepler team, and the telescope was functioning fine when it collected the data.

That leaves just a few possible explanations. One is that perhaps a wandering star pulled foreign comets into orbit around the star. Such a phenomenon is probably rare. "It's a bit of a stretch," says Andrew Siemion, a scientist with Berkeley's SETI center. The mysterious object(s) are blocking up to 20 percent of the star's light, which is much, much more than even a Jupiter-sized planet would block.

To test their hypothesis, the team hopes to listen for the tell-tale signs of life around KIC 8462852. They've applied for time on the Green Bank Telescope in West Virginia. They'll be competing with other scientists who want to use the giant telescope to answer other research questions. If their application is selected, next year the team will point the telescope's 100-meter dish toward KIC 8462852 and scan the radio signals emitting from that region.

a reply to: DannyTorrance

yay, maybe they can sit and watch the aliens study philosophy and playing games?

Another article on it yesterday, haven't read the entire thread yet so Im not sure if it got posted yet or not, but they speak a little more plainly in it:

large cluster of objects in space look like something you would "expect an alien civilization to build", astronomers have said.

Jason Wright, an astronomer from Penn State University, is set to publish a report on the “bizarre” star system - suggesting the objects could be a “swarm of megastructures”.

He told The Independent: "I can’t figure this thing out and that’s why it’s so interesting, so cool – it just doesn’t seem to make sense."

Speaking to The Atlantic, Mr Wright said: "Aliens should always be the very last hypothesis you consider, but this looked like something you would expect an alien civilisation to build. I was fascinated by how crazy it looked."

www.independent.co.uk... html

And a youtube on it:

www.youtube.com...

The one striking thing I am finding in all of this is a realization of the extent of the orthodox nature of the scientific community. Just panning twitter feeds, my take away is thus: about a quarter of the scientific community is willing to let their minds wander with "what if" scenarios. The remainder attack their own who dare to think a little outside the box. The quarter who are taking a step away from the mainstream science community are doing so while making heavy disclaimers that they still tow the party line. For the most part, this falls on deaf ears. Any speculation outside of the comet cloud hypothesis is being attacked.

That being said, Jason Wright did far too many interviews with far too many publications. Just taking a step outside of the box with that many publications is akin to being an evangelical alien pusher to the scientific community as a whole. I am too far remove to know if this is a case of someone riding the wave to get as much PR as possible, or probably more likely, he rode the wave where it took him.

a reply to: slip2break

Just panning twitter feeds, my take away is thus: about a quarter of the scientific community is willing to let their minds wander with "what if" scenarios.

Having spent some time in the company of inebriated scientists, I would say your take away estimate is actually quite low.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: slip2break

Just panning twitter feeds, my take away is thus: about a quarter of the scientific community is willing to let their minds wander with "what if" scenarios.

Having spent some time in the company of inebriated scientists, I would say your take away estimate is actually quite low.

lol... Inebriated yes... going on the record sober is a different question. I have a friend who was ex-Russian special ops whose opinions vary drastically as to what happened in Georgia a decade or so back depending on if we're talking mid-afternoon over coffee or we meet up half in the bag at 3am in the morning at a bar.

Popular opinion/professional opinion and what is actually going on inside of your head tend to differ greatly. The former tends to win out.

a reply to: slip2break

lol... Inebriated yes... going on the record sober is a different question.

That's the thing about science. Wildass ideas are rife but they are not science.

Scientists know the difference and apart from some who are more concerned with celebrity than their craft, they understand that broadcasting their speculations is more a distraction than anything, until they actually have something to present. That's why getting them into a one-on-one can be fun.

a reply to: slip2break

I find these places worth visiting if you want to step off and listen to those who are focused on searching for extraterrestrial life and artefacts. Carr's podcast features scientists speculating on the challenges and dreams of the search and some episodes are just excellent. You'll have heard of Dave Grinspoon already and his site is a good example of speculative thinking. I remember posting a thread about Wright's search for Dyson sphere's a couple of years back.

Dave Grinspoon - Funky Science

Paul Carr's Wow Signal Podcast - Searching for Bracewell Probes

Unseen Podcast - Fermi Paradox

Nick Bostrom's site

Astrobiology Magazine

a reply to: Phage

Oh... I think maybe we're not disagreeing after all. Wild speculation over a few pints is wonderful mental lubrication. But to some extent, I think that needs to leak over a little bit into public life. Otherwise, there probably would be no progress in any science.

My comments were directed at astronomers who went on record to publicly slam Wright on Twitter versus those who supported him. This was my own unscientific survey/approximation that it might be a 3 to 1 who were against his quotes in various publications that mentioned aliens.... and the back tracking that he's had to do over the last 24 hours. This in spite of the fact that the paper he released said that the scientific community had to first look to established explanations as to what is occurring around Tabby's star before invoking aliens.

a reply to: Kandinsky

Thanks.. always looking for new sources of info.

a reply to: slip2break

You're welcome.

Carr's shows are jump-offs for a ton of adventurous schemes by SETI-enamoured scientists

a reply to: slip2break

But to some extent, I think that needs to leak over a little bit into public life. Otherwise, there probably would be no progress in any science.

Indeed. Since few scientists are independently wealthy or have wealthy patrons as they did in the early days, it is important that the public have a sustained interest in (and thereby support) what they do. But the post of yours to which I first replied implied that a minority of scientists have active imaginations. In my experience I have found the contrary to be true.

The one striking thing I am finding in all of this is a realization of the extent of the orthodox nature of the scientific community. Just panning twitter feeds, my take away is thus: about a quarter of the scientific community is willing to let their minds wander with "what if" scenarios.

I have found that for a scientist, the opportunity to demonstrate that "orthodoxy" is wrong is what they are looking for. When it comes to extraterrestrial intelligence, I think you would be hard pressed to find any scientist who discounts the possibility (if not the probability). But when it comes to providing evidence, you'd better have something more than "this could be it."

Phage, I wonder what do you think about this discovery? Is there a kind of advertisement campaign behind all this hype or more?