What are your predictions if the US had another Civil War?

Many feel that the US is building up to a new civil war, there are some extremely deep divides between us these days and it takes less than 5 minutes of conversation to get the average voter to utter the phrase "If we could just kill/deport (group X) things would be better".

So here's the question, if we were to break into another Civil War what do you believe the sides would be? Keep in mind that there may be more than two sides. What would be the dividing lines or the alliances? Would it be political? geographic? economic? all of the above? Would any states try and secede? Would the government let that happen? Would secessionists be yet another group in the war?

When the dust settles, what do you think the outcome would be?

I'll go first. I see the US breaking along geographic and political lines. Yet again it would be the poor southern states against the rich northern states. You would have the area of the northern colonies (Maryland and up) fighting against the south (say South Carolina down) with the southern states attempting to secede from South Carolina to Texas+Arizona. New Mexico would be a battleground with Texas and Arizona attacking it from different sides to secure supply routes. States in the east that are caught in the middle like Ohio and Virginia wouldn't secede but would become hotbeds of guerrilla fighting and domestic terrorism from both sides with frequent clashes between their urban and rural counterparts, this would hold true through the midwest north of Oklahoma. The western states I think would attempt to secede for the duration of the war (which would then become permanent) and declare neutrality with Washington, Oregon, and Utah becoming sanctuaries. California would deport people to those other states due to water issues.

In the end I see the west remaining their own country and great tensions between them and the colonial area as to which has claim as being the true remaining US. The colonial area would have gone largely liberal (well liberal for the US), and ultimately wins the war due being able to hire more troops but this time can't reunify the south. In their victory they have something of a French Revolution and kill the modern day aristocrats. The south secedes and goes further right than the tea party, and writes themselves a less ambiguous constitution that people living there are happy with, but is largely a Christian theocracy. New Mexico falls with the help of the drug cartels in Mexico (who are brought in as cheap soldiers against Blackwater type mercs) and gets annexed by the new southern US. The midwest area never officially leaves but uses it's status to act as a buffer area with the west, which it uses to collect taxes on trade goods and becomes something of a DMZ.

The war itself would start with the military dividing and choosing sides, but before long the equipment would be destroyed, as would the factories to rebuild it. This would reduce the fighting to infantry platoons fighting in cities, and lots and lots of guerrillas/terrorist acts. Due to low supplies the military would contract out most of the soldiers to firms like Blackwater, making the war really between groups of privatized mercs with civilians doing their own small independent things. The only military equipment that would remain in the militaries hands would be naval units like subs tasked specifically with preventing invasion and left alone to fulfill their mission by all involved. The Pacific would be covered with the wests neutrality while the Atlantic would be assisted by the Europeans.

Nuclear weapons would not be used in the conflict, out of fear that it could make each group lose legitimacy in the eyes of the rest of the world and provoke attack. Small scale chemical weapons would however be used extensively for terrorist acts and constant cyber attacks would greatly impede most economic development with bitcoin becoming the currency of necessity when they could keep some internet up (physical bitcoins for when they couldn't), and gold/silver/oil futures being the currency of the south. The west would stick to the USD but remove the Federal Reserve (since they seceded, why not?) and the midwest being in the middle of it all would accept anything.

And so I propose one more question if you've gotten this far. Who would you side with, and why? If you don't agree with my prediction, how do you see it playing out, and who in that prediction would you side with?

Judging by what is seen going on in the USA and the inability to resolve the race problems, I would see a civil war between the black and whites.

The result would be the black being collected into ghettos, although I think this has already largely happened.

Other than that the US is not going to have a civil war. Oh, I know people who live there complain, but they really need to travel abroad to see that the US - while flawed - is not really that bad.

originally posted by: paraphi
Judging by what is seen going on in the USA and the inability to resolve the race problems, I would see a civil war between the black and whites.

The result would be the black being collected into ghettos, although I think this has already largely happened.

Other than that the US is not going to have a civil war. Oh, I know people who live there complain, but they really need to travel abroad to see that the US - while flawed - is not really that bad.

Race is bad but I don't think it's a catalyst for a war. If anything race is really more about socio economic status, it just disproportionately affects blacks more. I'm one of those poor whites, so I know where they're coming from. The hard truth for anyone to accept in such a status is that you simply don't have enough wealth to make a change. You have no political voice, most haven't had educational opportunities (I'm lucky in that regard), most are addicted to drugs that provide an escape from reality (again, lucky I've never touched the stuff). There will never be a serious race war because the people who want to make it aren't in a physical, mental, or financial state to do so. The bottom 5% in the US (which I'm a part of, I'm in the bottom 1% actually) are simply the untouchables. As angry as some may get, they're still the least advantaged and least equipped percentile out there.

What I see of the black vs white police interactions is something different. These stories are only getting air time for the racist factors at work but white cops are doing this to white people, while black cops are doing it to black people. Only because one of those interactions is taboo we hear more about it. What you're seeing is a problem with authoritarian rule and those who resist such a thing because they believe in what the constitution says and have historical backdrops to compare it to. In that case it's much more likely going to be haves vs have nots, which goes along political classes. In my scenario I imagine such a thing to be fixed in the west, continued as is in the northeast for security concerns, and amped up as a sign of safety in the south.

As far as a Civil War goes, I have a bit of an ongoing project when I talk to people about politics face to face (in school I hang out with a bunch of poli sci majors so it comes up a lot). I give myself 5 minutes of I know them and 10 minutes if I don't to talk to them, I play the role of semi neutral/resistance of whatever their cause is. Within 5 or 10 minutes you can almost to a person get them to say "All of group X needs to go". Some will say deport the illegals, others will say we just need to execute all the Republicans. It doesn't take much, and that little experiment (something I've been doing for over a year) has made me realize that people are very close to the breaking point... one event from going out and fixing things themselves at the point of a weapon.

Tens of millions dead,

Abolition of state system and 100% federal government.

End of USA as we know it.

A complete corporate government in control

End of the USD and collapse of US standard of living.

Long term a unstable country Barely kept under the heel of a power dictatotship

I hope it's along geographic lines... Odds are it will be much messier than that.

Mix of racial groups, political, and some geographic in my opinion.

It will be ugly and senseless unless tptb screw up and make an overt move to get the anger focused on them.

originally posted by: crazyewok
Tens of millions dead,

Abolition of state system and 100% federal government.

End of USA as we know it.

A complete corporate government in control

End of the USD and collapse of US standard of living.

Long term a unstable country Barely kept under the heel of a power dictatotship

I think you under estimate the death count. I bet it would reach 100 million, if not more. By the time it was over you would be guaranteed that close family members met poor ends, whether they were fighting, were victims, or just died of poor conditions.

The south in my scenario would be a real corporate government, the northeast less so but with the military being a private contractors I don't see that arrangement working out long term. The west coast would fix the problems I think since the crazies would go fight elsewhere.

The USD collapse would definitely happen.

a reply to: Aazadan

What are your predictions if the US had another Civil War?

Unfortunately I don't think there is any prediction about it. It's as plain as night follows day that many good people will rise up and they will be massacred in very short order. Unfortunately if no one rises up two thirds of us will be massacred either by vaccines, GMO, nano bio weapons and slavery over a period of a few decades.

The depopulation rake has many tynes.

The old days of only 3% of the population fighting off a well armed force are over IMO. If there is a revolution it will center around Washington D.C. and the shots/ammo used will be ballots.

Until the population becomes aware and determined to out the corruption of the few against the many NOTHING is gonna happen except for the few brush fires we have already seen. Maybe bigger but still small potatoes when when the big picture is even glanced at. So far all the riot stuff has been based on thugs in uniforms called police acting badly.. I feel sorry for the good cops for they a tainted by the stink of the bad.

Are there central planners who would like nothing more than establish a feudal type system where there are no 4th amendment, and certainly no property rights, where everyone makes some kind of minimum wage... Yep... Will they be successful... I for one hope not... Look up Technocracy, which is a named means and way of transforming everything about America or any other country into such a system.

The whole revolution thingy is already underway for the dark side. It started in our schools (sometime ago with common core; another look up if you are unfamiliar) and is alive and well if you look at those graduating (or not) who can barely read, add and subtract, or know hardly anything about history much less a map.. ... Last figure I saw there were 6 million home schooled kids in the USA... just a drop in the bucket... but the longest journey starts with the first step.

We need to vote out the two ruling parties and remove a very large portion of the federal bureaucrats who are actually running everything anyway.

We need leadership and someone who the majority can get behind and support.. So did Germany and they got Hitler once upon a time. Lets hope we are not forced down the same road as National Socialist German Workers' Party.

There are good people in the government as there are in our military; never doubt it.

"Just another old man who will last a couple of years and then he will be gone. I will still be there". Told to me by an undersecretary of State over breakfast one morning... He was right and all the upper level bureaucrats know the game.

The people who say, "Don't vote, it does not matter" have been brainwashed and that is exactly what those in power want you to believe. Any vote is better than no vote..

a reply to: Aazadan

If the US has a civil war, it would mean the end of our civilization. Its the same with any western nation. We have become too dependant on eachother. If the UK, or any member of the EU has a civil war everyone can kiss our civilization good bye.

What emerges after the global collapse, would only be what survives and serves as seed culture /mother culture to what followed. It would not be this civilization.

Without the west, the "global" world would no longer exist. Its not that Asia or the Africa, couldn't pull it off. Its that they wouldn't last long taking into account historic tendencies for each.

Civil war, is war. It is the worst type of war. It scars an entire people for generations and leads to increasing outspurts of violent outbreak. With any war, more always follows in one way or another. Some say WW2 hasn't really ended. I think so.

After WW1 we had 2 almost immediately after. Some people fought in both.
The American Revolution was a sort of civil war between Englishmen. The civil war in the states was not that soon after the revolution though the revolution did feed the civil war.

The point is that as soon as mobs arm and start an uprising or war, they set in motion many more down the road to a point of detrement.

It should be noted that most uprisings occur when conditions improve very quickly after a prolonged period of suffering. We are not yet truly suffered as a people here and we have not had our comfort restored after prolonged imposed hardship.

That's good. I am all for resetting our civilization before we poison or blow our selves up. I just think the process should be a willing transition so BILLIONS or even just millions don't die. If war hit the US or Europe now much of our civilization could be destroyed or lost, so preservation and good stewardship are called for. Conflict will always be a threat, though how we handle our differences is how we prove our worthiness for survival.

I mean unless "RAAWR kill people!", "blow things and people up!" JUSTICE!, WOOHOO!!!

All the conspiracy theorists go full postal fueled by their paranoia at the first report of minor civil unrest. The police kills them because they are a danger to society with all their guns and bunkers. Turns out there was no civil war after all, just normal clashes as usual. Everyone is happy.

Well I actually think that a civil war is a part of the plan. IF America was to fall into civil war, the military would crush the people. End of story. The only hope would be if the military stood against the government, which most likely wont happen.

So the people take to the streets with their guns, motivated by the police shootings. They're branded terrorists. The line gets drawn, "you're either with us or against us."

The people who are pro police get protected, the people who are not get stomped.

Then, once the dust settles, the police state rises to it's full potential, and the survivors live under an even more oppressive government. Resulting in TPTB getting exactly what they want; Total control of the population.

If our electrical power were to be interrupted for a time we may have something like a civil war because people just couldn't find anything else to do to pass the time.

The simpler of us will do anything to avoid just sitting there and formulating something like their own thoughts and those in places of power are happy to keep selling us junk we don't need, like telling us what and how to think.

Things need to get a lot worse before people will get out from in front of their TV's and actually entertain themselves or go out looking for something to do, like killing each other for whatever reason....

Laziness and weakness are all it takes to keep civil uprisings from happening.

Not likely gonna happen any time soon.

originally posted by: tadaman
a reply to: Aazadan
If the US has a civil war, it would mean the end of our civilization. Its the same with any western nation. We have become too dependant on eachother. If the UK, or any member of the EU has a civil war everyone can kiss our civilization good bye.

I agree with this. If any of the major first world countries had a big civil war, the entire planet would feel it. If the USA fell to a prolonged civil war, the world economy would collapse. Our purchase power of goods and our 'foreign aid' would halt, and the other economies couldn't handle it. Much of the world is so interconnected that if the economy of one country has cancer, it spreads to all the others.

What are your predictions if the US had another Civil War?

I'd suspect we'd all get randomly drone striked. If we are busy fighting each other.....yum, honey pot.

originally posted by: paraphi
Other than that the US is not going to have a civil war.

Wanna bet

a reply to: FlyersFan

Actually world has been preparing for your demise for years now.

Trust me

a reply to: tadaman

Pure American arrogance and hot air

Nothing more.

a reply to: JUhrman

Ahhh, those normal clashes where citizens go to war with each other or the state.. yeah, those clashes..

Or you do you mean the ones where black people go postal and destroy their own communities? Yeah, you would want those instigators killed too? Everyone's happy? A lot of guns in the ghetto.

Since you're European perhaps you mean those clashes where Muslims riot, burn, destroy and attack the police? Hope they wipe them out next time, right? We would be safer without them.

Hmpf..

I'm going to start by saying that you need to first differentiate between a civil uprising and terrorism.

What most people talk about here is not civil war, it's terrorism.

A lot of what I see on forums like ATS when it comes to civil war and the call for a revolution is based on nothing but religious, political or racial ideology, it has nothing to do with an "oppressive government".

Americans who think they're being "oppressed" by a horrid regime are nothing more than whiners who don't know the meaning of real oppression. Complaining that their government isn't bowing to their every personal whim is NOT an adequate excuse to call for some kind of action against the state. This is why people are (rightly) described as extremists for voicing threatening opinions in such a way.

Now, onto the question...

A real Civil War would only really be valid in the USA if the government was actively oppressing, maiming and/or killing citizens. Anything less than that is NOT AN EXCUSE. If you don't like the opinions of a politician, a law being passed, taxes, education, health care... VOTE to make change, create a political movement, encourage others. That's what happens under a democratic system.

If you can't convince other Americans to follow your lead and you're not getting the support you need for your views, tough titties, you don't then call for a revolution or Civil War just because the country isn't being run as you personally demand.

If the US government was being an oppressor and genuinely harming the American public, then you would probably have the backing of various nations around the world.

I don't see this happening though, because for all the paranoia and delusion expressed by people railing against the US government, it all comes down to mostly petty things and personal gripes, nothing that actually affects anyone in a real and concrete way.

So, if there was a "Civil War" based on nothing but the usual complaining and stamping of authoritarian feet (Republicans, gun nuts, Bible thumpers etc) the federal government would (rightly) treat them as a domestic terrorism threat - because that's what they would be; a radical group with political motivations using violence against the democratic principles of the country.

And no, I don't care who wants to argue that they are "different" because they are Americans and their Constitution says this or that. White or Brown, American or Syrian, Constitution or not, when you take up arms against the state to push your political, religious or sociological ideals you are a terrorist.

a reply to: TheLaughingGod

Reported to the relevant authorities as profile for potential terrorist threat. You will join the first waves to the FEMA camps.