4.8 EQ California...Was ATS Member Correct?

The only thing moving is surprisingly one thing that never moves, traffic!!

Nothing in LA...

originally posted by: stosh64
a reply to: BatheInTheFountain

3...2...1...

BRASTOFFFFFF A SAN!!

a reply to: BatheInTheFountain

You still with us bathein??

originally posted by: stosh64
a reply to: BatheInTheFountain

You still with us bathein??

5X5 .....all clear

a reply to: BatheInTheFountain

I am happy for you but it ruined my evening entertainment......

Failed doom porn, imagine that.

Next?.....

originally posted by: stosh64
a reply to: BatheInTheFountain

I am happy for you but it ruined my evening entertainment......

Failed doom porn, imagine that.

Next?.....

I was looking forward to a quake. I'm one of those sick people that thinks they're fun. As I have survived 7 in my lifetime.

Oh well, maybe next time.

A question for everyone that calls it a fail,
if a major EQ hits the LA area in the next week, would you consider it a hit, or still a miss?

Correction, not all earthquakes are fun. The Northridge Quake made me S**** My F***** PANTS.

I'm still holding my breath. Anything can happen from now till midnight. For some reasons, EQ seen to hit at night or early in the morning
a reply to: Darkblade71

originally posted by: Darkblade71
A question for everyone that calls it a fail,
if a major EQ hits the LA area in the next week, would you consider it a hit, or still a miss?

I'd go with a not quite dead center but at least in the red zone.

Jude11

a reply to: jude11

Not sure on the arena of predictions like this, but I'd let him pick my lottery numbers.

originally posted by: beezzer
a reply to: jude11

Not sure on the arena of predictions like this, but I'd let him pick my lottery numbers.

Has to be better than any of my picks, that's for sure.

Jude11

originally posted by: beezzer
a reply to: jude11

Not sure on the arena of predictions like this, but I'd let him pick my lottery numbers.

Only if you give me half of the winnigs.

originally posted by: jude11

originally posted by: DelMarvel
There are 35 earthquakes A DAY between 4.0 and 4.9.

Predicting an 8.6 and then claiming a 4.8 as a hit is total fail.

Who claimed a hit? Where are these people or this person? Where is the thread?

I guess you never read the OP title or content.

Jude11

All right then. Regarding the title of this thread: "Was ATS Member Correct?"

Answer: No.

originally posted by: BatheInTheFountain

originally posted by: stosh64
a reply to: BatheInTheFountain

I am happy for you but it ruined my evening entertainment......

Failed doom porn, imagine that.

Next?.....

I was looking forward to a quake. I'm one of those sick people that thinks they're fun. As I have survived 7 in my lifetime.

Oh well, maybe next time.

But they are fun!

See you down in Arizona Bay.

In the mean while, 150 dolphins beached in Japan.

That happened just before the Fukushima quake and the Christchurch quake as well. Though the timing and location is off, something might be afoot here nevertheless.

originally posted by: UnBreakable

originally posted by: beezzer
a reply to: jude11

Not sure on the arena of predictions like this, but I'd let him pick my lottery numbers.

Only if you give me half of the winnigs.

I'm very ok with that!

With my current system, half of nothing is still nothing.

Jude11

originally posted by: DelMarvel
All right then. Regarding the title of this thread: "Was ATS Member Correct?"

Answer: No.

The energy released by the 4.8 quake was only about 800,000 times less than predicted 8.6. How close do you expect the prediction to be to give him credit?

originally posted by: Darkblade71
A question for everyone that calls it a fail,
if a major EQ hits the LA area in the next week, would you consider it a hit, or still a miss?

There are too many things about this to call it either way. I think most of us would just call it a coincidence, unless several criteria were met.

I think most people here would compare the accuracies and inaccuracies, whatever they might be, to make an assessment of the overall prediction.

To be honest, if it happened on the same date a year from now, with the same magnitude, in the right location, there would have to be at least some consideration of it being a *somewhat* valid prediction, just given the fact that the probability of getting any of these things right is so small.

To be honest, even getting down to one month in predicting the timing of such an event would lead me to consider some validity to the prediction.

So, I would look at each thing...

Magnitude:
Getting that right would impress me, regardless of the timing of the event. But, the longer time goes on the less impressive that would be.

Location:
Not a very impressive prediction. This is a very active region and EQ's happen daily with various strength. If there had been any EQ in LA at that time though, that again would have impressed me somewhat.

Date:
Again, there are EQ's every day in California, picking a date for one is like shooting fish in a barrel of nothing but fish. It's about as impressive as predicting the sun will rise tomorrow. But, if the mag was right, or the location was right, that again would change my perception of the probability of getting it right.

Time:
Same again. Timing would not be impressive without the location, or the magnitude.

It's a combination of things for me. The right combination of accuracy would impress me, and each thing individually might impress me if probability goes against the likelihood of it happening as predicted.