Europe's 'Last Dictator' getting nervous of Russia

Europe's famously nicknamed 'Last Dictator', Lukashenko, is steadily pulling Belarus away from the Russian Bear. For almost 20 years now Lukashenko has played a middle game, balancing Russia and the EU off each other, and he's a master at it. However there are recent signs even Europe's last dictator finds Putin a dangerous 'friend'.

After Russia annexed Crimea and started war in East Ukraine Lukashenko famously went on Russian TV and said, “No matter who comes to the Belarussian land, I will fight. Even if it is Putin”. That was a serious message that was heard loud and clear in the Kremlin. When Lukashenko backed up that talk by refusing to join Russian retaliatory sanctions against the EU his countries meat was banned from Russia. A clear signal from Moscow Belarus was in trouble. However that signal doesn't seem to have been received in Belarus.

www.ibtimes.com...

A new law was just now passed by Lukashenko obviously targeting Russia. According to the law, the “sending of armed groups, irregular armed forces, mercenary groups, or regular armed forces who use arms against the Republic of Belarus by a foreign country or countries or on behalf of a foreign country or countries” will trigger a declaration of war. Them be fighting words and a line in the sand. Belarus has no intention of suffering the same fate as Ukraine.

Currently Belarus has Russia as it's largest trading partner but the EU is a close second. Part of Lukashenko's successful strategy of playing each off against the other. However just a few days ago Lukashenko said in a press conference that if Russia's economy continued to suffer so much Belarus would have to leave the economic union with Russia. Now if that isn't kicking a country while their down I don't know what is! Looks like Lukashenko is reaching out for some more forbidden EU love very soon.

So far it's all just bravado and warnings with Belarus trying to drive better trade deals. However one little part of the story turns out to be the smoking gun leading to the truth. Lukashenko this month decided to reinstate the Belarussian language in all schools. Considering less than a 1/4 of the people in Belarus can speak it's own language he has a really big job ahead of him. However this is a deep down kind of insult to Russia that not even brothers can accept. Russia is famous for causing trouble anytime another country treats Russian speakers poorly. Switching all schools to Belarussian is a very serious move against the Kremlin.

So while the MSM will dismiss Lukashenko as trying to get better trade with the EU by exploiting the conflict in Ukraine the truth is that Belarus has taken a firm turn Westward. Of course a dictator like Lukashenko would never be allowed into the EU, but by the time the dictator is ready to retire Belarus just might be on the path to joining the EU.

By the way, if you've never been to Belarus you should go sometime. It's a very well run country, safe and clean with Soviet reminders everywhere. You just might start thinking dictatorship actually works.

a reply to: noeltrotsky

Scared By Ukraine War, Belarus Strongman Lukashenko Mulls Ditching Russia

Typical Western media spin article.

The title should read...

Scared To become The Next Gaddafi, Belarus Strongman Lukashenko Is Twisting Himself

a reply to: noeltrotsky

So which dictator are we to pull for, Lukashenko or Putin?
One wants to keep his country and the other wants his country.

a reply to: BornAgainAlien

But the title does not say that.

You have evidence / sources to support your statement its "spin"?

Belarus has a negative trade balance with Russia and imports more than is exported to them. This arrangement suits Russia very well. However, in recent years Belarus has developed productive relations with the EU and exports more than is imported.

If you were the leadership of Belarus (regardless whether you were a scumbag dictator), you would look to the economic markets that provided the best advantage. With Belarus that market is the EU.

Like Ukraine, the trade imbalance enriches Russia to the detrainment of the poorer party to the arrangement. Like Ukraine - and almost all ex-Soviet vassal states - the direction of travel is towards the EU. Russia needs to change the way they work in this changing world.

Regards

originally posted by: Aliensun
a reply to: noeltrotsky

So which dictator are we to pull for, Lukashenko or Putin?
One wants to keep his country and the other wants his country.

I think the bigger implication is that countries supposedly on "Russia's side" are starting to see Russia for what it is. A danger to their own nations.

Russia violated their economic pact with Belarus.
Kazakhstan refused to recognize Crimea and stated Ukraine territorial integrity must be respected.

Russia allies are questioning Russia's actions.


a reply to: paraphi
When the EU and Ukraine worked out the economic association Russia once again interjected itself. It demanded over 200 items be removed from the agreement because they would compete directly with Russian items.

that to me spoke volumes about how Russia views its trade with other nations. Russia refuses to bring its industries into the 21st century and are inefficient / poor quality because of it. Instead of Russian businesses investing to make themselves compatible, they demand other nations adopt policies that would benefit only Russia.

a reply to: Xcathdra

Noel gives the answer himself.

For almost 20 years now Lukashenko has played a middle game, balancing Russia and the EU off each other, and he's a master at it.

...and also don`t be surprised the cunning people in the Kremlin are being behind this smoke screen..."give the impression you are slowly turning against the Kremlin to not face a Ukrainian style uproar" (give The West the idea there`s something to get without having to resort to the an Ukrainian style action plan, but in the meantime it`s nothing more as stalling).

a reply to: BornAgainAlien

Naw.. I think Belarus sees Russia for what it is and has decided that Russia sees its "allies" in a one way road view. That road running entirely in Russia's favor. Russia does not see them as equals.

You really are incapable of seeing facts that run against Russia. You just equated the actions taken by Belarus as some type of western plot. That any nation that has issues with Russia is somehow a pawn of the US.

Did I understand you correctly?

originally posted by: Aliensun
a reply to: noeltrotsky

So which dictator are we to pull for, Lukashenko or Putin?
One wants to keep his country and the other wants his country.

Don't forget the EU/US supported Keiv regime have been using the far right to fight the rebels in the east.
They (the neo nazis)have mananged to infiltrate themselves into that western backed regime.

I am no putin supporter-the guy has mushroom clouds in his eyes IMO,but the fact is the west are supporting jew/muslim/black hating white power fanatics to do their dirty work keeping the bear at bay in Ukraine.

Check out the Azov battalion on google,or watch Ross Kemp hang out with them in his recent episode of "Ross Kemp Extreme World."
Look at their logo:



Most of them have nazi tatoos and swastikas/deaths head emblems on their uniforms as well.
The EU is supporting Nazis for gods sake...Wasn't the EU formed to prevent any far right ideology?
We live in a parallel universe-where everything is FUBAR.

a reply to: Silcone Synapse

There are no neo Nazis in Ukraine's government as those groups were completely voted out of office.

Russia recognized the government in Ukraine so im not sure why you use the term regime.

Trying to use one group as a broad brush on all Ukrainian entities is a lazy mans argument. Should be go down the road of Chechens, their history and their presence in East / South Ukraine back by Russia?

As a side note the Russian Duma has 55+ members of neo nationalist political groups serving. Any particular reason you ignore them if you don't like that type of political behavior?

a reply to: Xcathdra

The russian government is not being propped up by the EU,who are not supposed to support nazis.

a reply to: Silcone Synapse

What does the Ukraine have to do with Belarus?

It should be concerning to all that even Russian friends are stepping back to think things over.

The more Russia feels isolated the more likely something bad will happen.

originally posted by: noeltrotsky
Europe's famously nicknamed 'Last Dictator', Lukashenko, is steadily pulling Belarus away from the Russian Bear. For almost 20 years now Lukashenko has played a middle game, balancing Russia and the EU off each other, and he's a master at it. However there are recent signs even Europe's last dictator finds Putin a dangerous 'friend'.

After Russia annexed Crimea and started war in East Ukraine Lukashenko famously went on Russian TV and said, “No matter who comes to the Belarussian land, I will fight. Even if it is Putin”. That was a serious message that was heard loud and clear in the Kremlin. When Lukashenko backed up that talk by refusing to join Russian retaliatory sanctions against the EU his countries meat was banned from Russia. A clear signal from Moscow Belarus was in trouble. However that signal doesn't seem to have been received in Belarus.

Bolding mine... Should read "After the US created a coup de tat in the Ukraine undermining the government, Russia was forced to respond to protect their military bases in Crimea as well as the will of the Russian people living in Crimea"

Man, the spin doctors are a funny bunch!

Cheers - Dave

originally posted by: paraphi
Belarus has a negative trade balance with Russia and imports more than is exported to them. This arrangement suits Russia very well. However, in recent years Belarus has developed productive relations with the EU and exports more than is imported.

Excellent point. I'm sure Lukashenko understands there is a lot of business to be done in the EU. It's economy is much much bigger than Russia's.

I still think Belarus is a long, long way off from turning completely to the West. However Lukashenko is no dummy, he runs that country extremely efficiently, for a somewhat planned economy. He knows where the better future lies.

There are a lot more twists to the Belarus story coming I'm sure. Putin won't let this get too far out of hand. I wouldn't be surprised if Lukashenko's days are numbered if he goes much farther. Cutting Russian out of schools is too far for Putin I think.

originally posted by: Silcone Synapse
a reply to: Xcathdra

The russian government is not being propped up by the EU,who are not supposed to support nazis.

That's because they currently have sanctions on Russia. Prior to that they had a large part in keeping the Russian economy afloat.

Please list the Nazis in Ukraine that are being supported.

a reply to: Silcone Synapse

This discussion of Ukrainian Nazi's has been covered endlessly, right up to some people referring to Ukraine as a "Nazi state".

Ukraine, just like Russia has some far right nationalists. However, the extent that these groups are actually involved and influencing affairs is moot. Worthwhile pointing out that many members of the leadership of the eastern separatists have rather questionable past lives, including membership of Russian-based ultra-right parties, e.g. the party for Russian National Unity, to name but one organisation.

Regards

originally posted by: Silcone Synapse
I am no putin supporter-the guy has mushroom clouds in his eyes IMO,but the fact is the west are supporting jew/muslim/black hating white power fanatics to do their dirty work keeping the bear at bay in Ukraine.

The US has supported worse than the current regime in Ukraine over it's history. It's hard to find a good guy in some places around this world and you gotta get things done if ya know what I mean.

a reply to: bobs_uruncle

Russia recognized the Ukraine elections at the end of 2012.
Those same individuals voted to impeach Yanukovych and that vote met constitutional muster.

** Just like the US, Ukraine's impeachment process is a 2 step process.
The first vote is to confirm wrong doing.
If wrong doing is found then a second vote is held to remove him from office. **

First vote is the indictment.
Second vote is guilt or innocence.


Before they could vote to remove him from office, Yanukovych fled.
The Ukraine constitution requires an election within 90 days and it was held in that time frame.
Russia has recognized the government in Ukraine with the last round of elections.

There was no coup.
The current government in Ukraine is legitimate as it has been recognized by not only the bulk of the plant but by Russia as well.

The naval base in Crimea belongs to Ukraine. When Russia sent armed non insignia military members into Crimea, it was an invasion and occupation.

Secondly Russia recognized Ukraine territorial sovereignty, including Crimea, in the Budapest agreement.

The claims of a coup or Junta have no basis in fact and are used by Russia in order to paint a picture designed to "legitimize" Russian involvement.

a reply to: bobs_uruncle

Didn't try to spin that Dave. Never mentioned the start of unrest in Ukraine, just the timing of Lukashenko's statements on Russian TV.

Do you have any idea the size of Balls required to go on Russian TV and mention going to War with Putin like Lukashenko did? The guy has a big brass pair, I'll tell you.

One thing that is true in all this is that all the countries that were once part of Soviet Union do not want to end up back in that same situation just because Russia decides one day it likes that model better.