Retail Disaster: Holiday Sales Crater by 11%, Online Spend Declines: NRF Blames Shopping Fiasco On

Well ATS and The Rest of The Known Universe. According to The NRF (The National Retail Federation) things aren't as rosy as The Government say they are. Retail Sales Down 11 percent compared to the dame period last year.

So what do Y'All think? Have Sales been up or down or the same in your area of the country?
Any Reports or Comments from Our Fellow ATS Folks would be appreciated and have a Good Rest of your Weekend Guys and Gals and Peace .

Mods, I put this in Global Meltdown, If for any reason that you see git then please move this thread to where you feel most appropriate. Thanks Again and Peace, Love and Donny Osmond Arjunanda.

Last year was bad. This year is an outright disaster.

As we reported earlier using ShopperTrak data, the first two days of the holiday shopping season were already showing a -0.5% decline across bricks-and-mortar stores, following a "cash for clunkers"-like jump in early promotions which pulled demand forward with little follow through in the remaining shopping days. However, not even we predicted the shocker just released from the National Retail Federation, the traditionally cheery industry organization, which just reported absolutely abysmal numbers: sales during the four-day Thanksgiving holiday period crashed by a whopping 11% from $57.4 billion to $50.9 billion, confirming what everyone but the Fed knows by now: the US middle class is being obliterated, and that key driver of 70% of US economic growth is in the worst shape it has been since the Lehman collapse, courtesy of 6 years of Fed's ruinous central planning.

Demonstrating the sad state of America's "economic dynamo", shoppers spent an average only $380.95, down 6.4% from $407.02 a year earlier. In fact, as the NRF charts below demonstrate, there was a decline across virtually every tracked spending category (source):



As the WSJ reports, NRF's CEO Matt Shay attributed the drop to a combination of factors, including the fact that retailers moved promotions earlier this year in attempt to get people out sooner and avoid what happened last year when people didn’t finish their shopping because of bad weather.

Also did we mention the NRF is perpetually cheery and always desperate to put a metric ton of lipstick on a pig? Well, hold on to your hats folks:

He also attributed the declines to better online offerings and an improving economy where “people don’t feel the same psychological need to rush out and get the great deal that weekend, particularly if they expected to be more deals,” he said.
And of course the sprint vs marathon comparisons, such as this one: "The holiday season and the weekend are a marathon not a sprint,” NRF Chief Executive Officer Matthew Shay said on a conference call. Odd how that metaphor is never used when the (seasonally-adjusted) sprint beats the marathoners.

So there you have it: a 11% collapse in retail spending has just been spun as super bullish for the US economy, whereby US consumers aren't spending because the economy is simply too strong, and the only reason they don't spend is because they will spend much more later. Or something.

Apparently the plunge in Americans who even care about bargains is also an indication of an economic resurgence:

The retail trade group said the number of people who went shopping over the four-day weekend declined by 5.2% to 134 million, from 141 million last year.

Finally, what we said earlier about a surge in online sales, well forget it - it was a lie based on the now traditional skewed perspectives from a few self-servcing industry organizations:

Despite many retailers offering the same discounts on the Web as they offered in stores, the Internet didn’t attract more shoppers or more spending than last year. Online sales accounted for 42% of sales racked up over the four-day period, the same percentage as last year, though up from 26% in 2006, the trade group said.
In fact, it was worse: "Shoppers spent an average $159.55 online, down 10.2% from $177.67 last year."

But the propaganda piece de resistance is without doubt the following:

“A highly competitive environment, early promotions and the ability to shop 24/7 online all contributed to the shift witnessed this weekend,” Mr. Shay said.
So to summarize: holiday sales plunged, and Americans refused to shop because the economy is "stronger than ever" and because Americans have the option of shopping whenever, which is why they didn't shop in the first place. That, and of course plunging gasoline prices leading to... plunging retail sales, just as all the economists "correctly" predicted.

Goebbels approves.

Textwww.zerohedge.com...

Which part of your post is your opinion and which part are you quoting? It's quite a lot to read. Regardless, I'm not surprised at the lack of consumer spending but how in the world can they get Thanksgiving and black Friday shopping figures in yet? Isn't it a little early for data analysis?

Hmm...

I have NEVER bothered shopping on Black Friday- and never will. Ugh.

I do purchase gifts on line, but my timetable for this has not changed.

I will say that the offerings at retail stores are becoming increasingly boring. I vastly prefer to shop from artisan stores of all kinds, be they local or on-line shops. As far as technology - the end to over the counter gaming stores is fast approaching, as my hubby is no longer purchasing from Game Stop and is now pre-purchasing and downloading his games.

If this throws the bankers for a loop, they need to get out more.

I will never go anywhere in public on Black Friday, besides work. Out of principle and just plain lack of interest dealing with the BS. Black Friday sales are a farce anyway.

How can they draw any conclusions about online sales at all? They call it "Cyber Monday" for a reason.

And it isn't until tomorrow.

Just an observation...

The metrics behind "black Friday" shopping change every year, so there's hardly any basis for comparison. As your source states, retailers moved promotions to earlier this year, so more people have already shopped for deals and sales stats for this holiday weekend aren't comparable to last years.

a reply to: gwynnhwyfar

I disagree with you on the game sales. A physical copy is always more valuable than a downloaded copy that cannot be resold/exchanged. I download some software digitally, but I would ALWAYS prefer a physical copy. Primarily I like the physical copy because of the art work on the packaging and within the instruction manual. Then you have collector's editions and all those things. The nice thing about a physical copy is that it doesn't take up near as much precious hard drive space. Just look at the price of a physical copy of Xenoblade Chronicles for the Nintendo Wii on Amazon or Ebay, and you will see what the collectible value of physical-based game releases are.

The game sales were not as good this Black Friday as in 2012. That year was big for game sales. The biggest thing that was on sale this year is HDTV's. I think that most people have HDTV"s now, so that's why the sales were so good on that item. I had a friend that got a nice Panasonic 60" LED HDTV for $200 because it was the "floor model".

I think sales are down because most people have the majority of what they want. I also think that 11% sales reduction could be related to the economy being worse, and people just not having as much money to spend. Look at how food prices continue to rise... I think that is the main culprit right there in reduced sale shopping. People didn't have as much money this year to spend as they did in previous years.

a reply to: arjunanda
Perhaps the mainstream media might be guilty of keeping people home itself. I'm sure a lot of people have seen the videos of people being trampled by madness. I myself don't need to see a video to know when one must be crazy to shop on Black Friday.

I can't help but wonder though if they did a geographical survey. In other words I wonder how much weather may have been a factor this season. If the sales were down more in the northern states that were hit hard.

This of course is just added thoughts besides the obvious that have already been presented.

Yeah - Buy Nothing Friday is catching on....

Hi Stoutbroux, My musings end withe The eace Love and Donny Osmond" Bit. Thank You for your reply Arjunanda a reply to: StoutBroux

I think because this report is specific to Brick and Mortar Retail Stores not Online Sales. It's done by the Credit Cards Processors reporting of sales from what I know of it. That's how they have The Info so fast, because it's real time (The Transactions) that is. Thank You for your reply Arjunanda. a reply to: NthOther

originally posted by: arjunanda
I think because this report is specific to Brick and Mortar Retail Stores not Online Sales. It's done by the Credit Cards Processors reporting of sales from what I know of it. That's how they have The Info so fast, because it's real time (The Transactions) that is. Thank You for your reply

Arjunanda. a reply to: NthOther

That bit about this being based on credit card reporting is interesting indeed. So, in the mind of the retailers, only the credit card purchases count as sales? Hmmm.
My shopping will all be done in small, locally owned businesses, mostly artisans and craftsfolk. I won't be using a credit card so whatever I spend won't be counted in the grand scheme I suppose. But it will be counted by my fellow citizens who are working hard to make a bit of cash.
As I said in another thread, wild horses with golden hooves couldn't make me go to a mall on Black Friday. I witnessed the craziness about 40 years ago and was astounded. In all honesty, I can't even remember the last time I was in a mall.

I think the OP is a bit confused about the information being reported. Sales over the Black Friday weekend have dropped and instead become more spread out not just gone away. Earlier deals and less focus by shoppers on going out of their way to get to sales is why retailers are excited about the changes in shopping habits. While black friday sales have dropped, sales for the holiday seasons are trending up and look to end up by 4.5%.

Are we talking about Black Wednesday before Black Thanksgiving? Oh whatever! It is all so very confusing now. When they started Black November First it just killed the whole thing. Prices are jacked up and then a percentage taken off for the fools who will buy anyway. Just one year if we all did not buy anything and instead just gave what we already have to each other it would be the best. Why only offer a cheap TV for 200 dollars for a few hours rather than daily?

originally posted by: arjunanda
I think because this report is specific to Brick and Mortar Retail Stores not Online Sales. It's done by the Credit Cards Processors reporting of sales from what I know of it. That's how they have The Info so fast, because it's real time (The Transactions) that is. Thank You for your reply

Arjunanda. a reply to: NthOther

The NRF comes up with its projections by surveying about 3000 plus potential shoppers. It does not reflect actual sales which it does not have access to.

a reply to: arjunanda

I think what is happening in the US economy is that the economic base is shrinking because more and more people simply cannot afford to buy anything but the bare essentials or they are simply becoming homeless.

The rich are simply vacuuming up all the money from everyone else.

I agree learnatic, It's Like they're taking More and More Water out of our Fish Bowl and putting it in theirs which already has More Than Enough and we The Little People are facing the consequences of their actions. They themselves never having to take responsibility for what they've done to the rest of society. Greed Like Idiocy is Boundless My Friend. Thanks for your answer Arjunanda. a reply to: learnatic

Well Numbers out today that are on the Nightly News here on The West Coast suggest that these initial figures were Right On! We have A Shrinking Economy I Thinks. Thank You for your reply MrSpad Arjunanda a reply to: MrSpad

My philosophy is cash for teenagers so they can have the fun of buying exactly what they want and need. This also teaches them to manage their money. Gift cards to Lowes or restaurants for adult siblings. Who knows what they want or need? Gifts of food for the grandparent types, and toy gifts for small children. I am giving my spouse cash and stocking stuffers. I am tired of people returning, re gifting, donating the items to Goodwill, or throwing a gift out wasting the money. We have all tightened up permanently on spending. We like paying our bills on time with less stress. Obama Care ate into normal people's wallets, We had a loss of drug coverage on our corporate insurance. We pay $1500 USD a year out of pocket now. It was like a pay cut in salary. This is where people lost their Christmas money to spend.

a reply to: arjunanda

Base our economy off of the patterns on fabrics and cloth and this is what we deserve.