Patient Zero - How Many?!

originally posted by: Biotech2024

originally posted by: TheLieWeLive
We know people show signs of contracting the virus within 29 days but I read a claim that 50 percent show symptoms within 5.5 days. If this true we will most likely be seeing more and most outbreaks within every 5 to 6 days from now on. Not good.

It's getting harder for me to deny how bad this could get really fast.

Duncan entered end of September so all cases should emerge by end of October.. If you have more cases pop up in November that's when warning bells go off and containment failure has occurred.

I think you have to start over with the 21-day count whenever there is a new case, as they did in Nigeria. So If this 2nd nurse showed symptoms on Tuesday (yesterday) then November 4th is the new day to look to (with hope and sensible prep.)

originally posted by: new_here

originally posted by: Biotech2024

originally posted by: TheLieWeLive
We know people show signs of contracting the virus within 29 days but I read a claim that 50 percent show symptoms within 5.5 days. If this true we will most likely be seeing more and most outbreaks within every 5 to 6 days from now on. Not good.

It's getting harder for me to deny how bad this could get really fast.

Duncan entered end of September so all cases should emerge by end of October.. If you have more cases pop up in November that's when warning bells go off and containment failure has occurred.

I think you have to start over with the 21-day count whenever there is a new case, as they did in Nigeria. So If this 2nd nurse showed symptoms on Tuesday (yesterday) then November 4th is the new day to look to (with hope and sensible prep.)

It's important to look for the original contact that's been missed. To see if we missed someone Duncan passed it on to.

originally posted by: Biotech2024

originally posted by: new_here

originally posted by: Biotech2024

originally posted by: TheLieWeLive
We know people show signs of contracting the virus within 29 days but I read a claim that 50 percent show symptoms within 5.5 days. If this true we will most likely be seeing more and most outbreaks within every 5 to 6 days from now on. Not good.

It's getting harder for me to deny how bad this could get really fast.

Duncan entered end of September so all cases should emerge by end of October.. If you have more cases pop up in November that's when warning bells go off and containment failure has occurred.

I think you have to start over with the 21-day count whenever there is a new case, as they did in Nigeria. So If this 2nd nurse showed symptoms on Tuesday (yesterday) then November 4th is the new day to look to (with hope and sensible prep.)

It's important to look for the original contact that's been missed. To see if we missed someone Duncan passed it on to.

Indeed. Both are true. I was just making the point that the date to look to shifted when the first nurse became symptomatic, and yet again when the 2nd nurse did. Any new cases beyond that indicate further containment failure. Whether related to Duncan or the nurses.

Knowing human frailties and nature, I can tell you 100% that EBOV can not be contained. Decontamination of modes of transport is extremely tedious, do you honestly think that the minimum wage workers who want to get out of that plane as quickly as possible, spray everything that needs to be sprayed?