Mount Ontake, a volcano straddling Nagano and Gifu prefectures, erupted on Saturday, spewing ash and small rocks into the air, killing a female
hiker, leaving at least 16 people unconscious and 30 others seriously injured, and stranding more than 40 on the mountain, officials and media
Now my biggest question here is if this volcano was monitored. And by that I mean did it have modern seismometers, gas emission detection, GPS, INSAR
data, and all the other things that you get when you are a threatening volcano. I do not know this, and am trying to find out.
But the volcano is listed on their site. And no alert went out- not until it erupted, that is. And now all of a sudden forecasters are warning against
additional eruptions? Well that's nice, now that it has erupted, but where were the warnings BEFORE this thing blew? Be sure to explain this to the
family of the dead girl.
I mean the fact that there were hikers on it will tell you that there was no previous alert. But if you must, you can browse through their alert list
on the JMA site- and SEE there was no alert before it blew. Now come on Japan. It is 2014. We have the
technology to forecast these things- right? All that fancy stuff you people put up there?
But the point is, EVEN WITH MONITORING EQUIPMENT, volcanoes are unpredictable. They can go off without much warning, and suddenly. I tend to believe
though that surely there were SOME signs. Inflation, quakes, gas, water temperature- I mean SOMETHING. But some scientist somewhere saw that sign, and
probably classified it as "normal background activity." Well a girl is now dead, and there may be more.
So I just want to say, when I post threads about activity at Yellowstone, or Long Valley, or Taupo, or Toba, or Rainier, there is damn good reason. It
is called the UNKNOWN FACTOR.
But really, are the factors so unknown? Or do scientists just keep choosing to dismiss them, and play the odds which most of the time work out in
their favor? Well they didn't work out for this dead girl, and whoever else was killed or injured because Japan could not warn them in time. Or could
they? That is the question. So I am not going to ever feel like I am fearmongering when I post threads about activity at any of these beasts. It could
be the last warning you ever get.
edit on Sat Sep 27th 2014 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason given)
Are you not out blaming a little quickly without knowing the details.
I have heard more than once saying, "the volcano erupted without warning", when volcanoes erupt, and that is usually also when people get killed or
Climbing an active volcano is a high risk doing, even with people in the background monitoring, as you say "you never know when", so the people should
know before they decide climbing that there is a huge risk involved, and there might not be any warning before hand.
Warnings btw also have a negative effect called "the boy cry wolf" factor, it starts with fear and ends in denial .
I usually like your threads, but this one smells a little of "look at me" on behalf of a tragic event IMO.
edit on 27-9-2014 by Mianeye because: (no reason given)
Yes, climbing a volcano always carries a small risk. But, significant trust is put in authorities to inform you when NOT to climb.
We're given the impression that situations such as this are monitored closely and actively, and that when things look dangerous we will be told.
The fact of the matter is: the authorities dropped the ball on this one, and someone was killed. Not because this person was doing anything foolish
or overly risky, but because they trusted those that we were told we can and SHOULD trust.
My post and edits above shall prove the point once more:
Even with monitoring equipment, volcanoes are unpredictable. So remember that the next time some scientist tries to sell you that a massive swarm of
earthquakes is due to tectonics, or water and CO2, and not magma. It is always incumbent upon you, folks, to make up your own mind based on the
This is so tragic. How frightening for the climbers.
There is a terrific article at io9, complete with links
to twitter pictures from hikers on the volcano and to the seismograms monitoring Mount Ontake.
This link has a video of the pyroclastic flow. NHK news
A local university professor was speculating that the low temperature of the pyroclastic flow may be because this was a steam-driven eruption. So
lucky that it wasn't hotter, or there could be many more fatalities.
This last pic was reportedly taken 30 minutes prior to eruption from the summit.
enari's twitter pic
(I truly hope this person did indeed make it out alive--read the io9 account linked earlier in this post.
The volcano was not under any alerts or warnings at the time of the eruption, although it was in a period of heightened seismic activity
(animation; seismograms). The volcano failed to exhibit clear signs of an imminent eruption, or if there was a breakdown in the monitoring process.
Even if monitoring was ideal, being close to a known active volcano is risky with a whole mess of potential hazards.
No, how about "the volcano was exhibiting plenty of signs of unrest, but we just didn't take them seriously enough."
So as the scientists try to explain away the massive swarm, right under the resurgent lava dome of Long Valley, a supervolcano- beware. Not enough
people take it seriously enough. It COULD blow. It just doesn't, luckily- time and time again. Yup, science made easy. Play the odds and win.
Its more than a Japanese fail, isn't volcano monitoring done on a global scale? Wouldn't global monitoring station pick pick up the early stages of
a eruption? So local Japanese monitoring, as well as global monitoring all failed?
Is anyone else surprised that this volcano erupted and everyone was surprised by it? Is it normal for a volcano anywhere on Earth erupts and no one
had a clue before hand?
No- obviously you're not reading- or just refuse to. I've provided everything you need in this thread to not come to that conclusion. Kind of
reminds me of scientists that refuse to pass on the warnings and raise alert levels when the clear signs are right in their face.
Similar studies employing InSAR to map deformation on volcanic terrain can reveal subsurface transport of magma, an important factor affecting
eruption probabilities. Detailed maps of the shape of the magma trail give clues as to where pressure may accumulate and also may help constrain the
explosiveness of the potential eruption
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