Powerful X1.6-class Solar Flare

a reply to: minkmouse
Quite true, don't know what carrington was. Québécois outage was x15 I think.
Hopefully some people get o see northern lights

a reply to: Rezlooper

Unless it's changed I think I read 55 degrees north , possible

shows you the current extent of the auroral oval in the northern hemisphere

I was in southern Texas about 15 years ago. It was a little after midnight and I had my telescope out checking out the night sky. I looked up and saw what looked like a solid, blood red cloud moving slowly across the sky, blotting out all the stars in its path. It continued until the whole sky was blood red with no stars visible.

I was a little freaked out, to say the least. The thought of a nuclear bomb going off briefly came to mind. I ran inside, turned on CNN and, after a few uncomfortable minutes, learned a big CME was hitting allowing the northern lights to be seen as far south as Texas. Whew! As light travels through the atmosphere, red is the last light to get filtered out which explained the blood red sky.

I wish I remember the exact date to determine how big that one was. I'm in Colorado now, I'm hoping I'll get to see something like that again!

I remember something like this happened in the 1800s.

UPDATE FROM NOAA

2014-09-11 05:01 UTC A Pair of CMEs

G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms remain in the forecast for September 12th as a result of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R1 (Minor) solar flare observed on the 9th. The latest WSA-Enlil model run has the CME associated with yesterday's R3 (Strong) solar flare arriving mid to late day on that same day. A G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm Watch has been issued for September 13th due to the combined influence of these two events with G1 (Minor) storming anticipated to continue into September 14th. In addition, the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm that is in progress as a result of the eruption yesterday is expected to persist for the next few days.

Keep in mind that the forecast periods listed are in Universal Time so aurora watchers in the northern U.S. should be looking for possible activity both Thursday and Friday nights.






Geomagnetic storm prediction appears to have been upgraded to G3( strong)

*these are possibilities not absolutes*

Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 50
Issue Time: 2014 Sep 11 0459 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 12: G2 (Moderate) Sep 13: G3 (Strong) Sep 14: G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: Upgrading the Watch for 13-14 Sep due to anticipated effects from the CME associated with yesterdays R3 (Strong) event.
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

a reply to: violet

You are rockin' the updates.

Thank you much!

a reply to: Druid42

Thanks. I appreciate that


 My power went out. Lost my wifi
I'm using a hotspot to get online. Its a bit dodgy.
I think its the wicked wind that's been blowing all day that caused the outage. Need to see if I can get on the bc hydro website now to see expected time it will be back on.

a reply to: aaronmiller
some memory you have there .. especially for someone your age ... must be well over 130 by now ?

Do they have a time when G3 will hit us? If it's during the day we won't get much of a show but if it's at night I might get my camera out to see if I can see the lights down in my area.

STORM WARNING (UPDATED): Among space weather forecasters, confidence is building that Earth's magnetic field will receive a double-blow from a pair of CMEs on Sept. 12th. The two storm clouds were propelled in our direction by explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2158 on Sept. 9th and 10th, respectively. Strong geomagnetic storms are possible on Sept. 12th and 13th as a result of the consecutive impacts. Sky watchers, even those at mid-latitudes, should be alert for auroras in the nights ahead.

a reply to: Druid42

Hey Druid!

Do you remember what episode Wrabbit did the CME/Solar flares on in Out of the Box?

People might be able to listen to the show and get an idea about these flares Vs the Carrington Event.
I don't remember what episode it was on or I would link to it.

Is there a possibility that these events do damage to electronics?

Just checking if I should be unplugging stuff when I get home!!

Great find, my eyes will be to the skies tonight and tomorrow night!

originally posted by: violet
a reply to: minkmouse

Quite true, don't know what carrington was. Québécois outage was x15 I think.

Hopefully some people get o see northern lights

The Quebec event was X15 so you're correct. It caused a 12 hour power outage in the entire city of Quebec and even disrupted some power in the US, although minor. This was back in 1989.

Our grid system is old and desperately needs updating. Now, this CME is only X1.6 but we have a 40% chance for more X-Class flares so we should keep our eyes on this possibility.

Here is a look at the Carrington Event

originally posted by: texasgirl

originally posted by: violet
a reply to: minkmouse

Quite true, don't know what carrington was. Québécois outage was x15 I think.

Hopefully some people get o see northern lights

The Quebec event was X15 so you're correct. It caused a 12 hour power outage in the entire city of Quebec and even disrupted some power in the US, although minor. This was back in 1989.

Our grid system is old and desperately needs updating. Now, this CME is only X1.6 but we have a 40% chance for more X-Class flares so we should keep our eyes on this possibility.

There's been an M class flare today.

Most current updates
SWPC Space Weather Alerts Issued in the last 24 hours
Space Weather Message Code
SUM10R Serial Number: 628 Issue Time: 2014 Sep 11 1543 UTC SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst Begin Time: 2014 Sep 11 1523 UTC Maximum Time: 2014 Sep 11 1523 UTC End Time: 2014 Sep 11 1525 UTC Duration: 2 minutes Peak Flux: 210 sfu Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 160 sfu Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.


Space Weather Message Code
WATA50 Serial Number: 50 Issue Time: 2014 Sep 11 0459 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Sep 12: G2 (Moderate) Sep 13: G3 (Strong) Sep 14: G1 (Minor) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Comment: Upgrading the Watch for 13-14 Sep due to anticipated effects from the CME associated with yesterdays R3 (Strong) event. Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur. Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.

Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.