Second Meltdown Beginning?

Doom porn? Probably, but let me make my case here. Besides, it isn't as if a lot of us here thought another one of these was that far off.

My first stop is the Chinese housing bubble. I know, I know, we've been hearing about this for ages, but this tidbit caught my eye:

Zero Down Payment? China’s Developers Get Desperate

If you've paid attention to the way that the Chinese run (at least what we typically hear about here in the West), I'm sure you'll see why: talking about zero down payments is something that I've literally never heard of from the Chinese. That I'm used to hearing about 30-40% down makes this even more startling.

Switching gears, a major thing that I've been keeping track of is food prices because food rules all. Period. This article from Zero Hedge disturbed me. In the U.S., we get an enormous amount of our food from there. We are the number one grain exporter in the world, which means that what happens here effects everybody else as well. And while we're on grain exports, let's take a look at number six and we'll see the Ukraine, the same country that's in the middle of a civil war at the moment.

As we all know, grain is a major staple in the world food supply, if not the staple. This is very, very bad for world food prices.

Things are looking really bad for the U.S. economy. I ran into this on various sites, and I went looking for the original.

That means a total of 10.2 million men aged 25-54 – or one out of every 6 men in his prime working years – are not holding jobs in the U.S. economy today

On top of that, I saw that For first time in 3 years, U.S. economy shrinks. Now, I hope that they're right about the subtitle and that the common theme was the horrible weather, but I don't buy it.

Why?

This:

The economy grew at an annual rate of 4.6% between January and March, below analysts' forecasts and the same pace as the previous quarter.

For the full 2013-14 financial year, growth was 4.7%, the second straight year of sub-5% expansion.

And this

The 4.4 percent annual decrease in retail sales was more than the median estimate for a 3.3 percent decline, and marked the biggest drop since a devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.

And this:

Eurozone recovery takes a knock as economy grows just 0.2% in last quarter, with many countries disappointing

One of the major things that really got my attention, though, was this article. I'll grant you that it could be from a better source, but it's just one more point in an overall web that makes enough sense that I'm willing to credit it.

There has been a lot of stagnation all over the world for several years, and people are blaming several different factors in various countries, but the big boys like Europe and the U.S. look like they're starting to stagnate, and China looks like it's entering a spiral of death in its housing market in some areas.

Here where I'm at, the U.S., we on main street never really recovered from the recession, and, to be honest, I think we'd be in Great Depression stats again if not for the blunting effect of the social safety net. This article gives you a good example, though there does seem to be at least a little good news, as enrollment has fallen since its peak in December 2012.

Last year, about 1 in 7 people in the U.S. received food stamps, or SNAP benefits, as they're called. That's almost 48 million people, a record high.

However, from the same article:

Still, Rosenbaum says only 79 percent of those eligible for food stamps receive them.

Add to that the labor participation rate, and you're looking at a pretty bleak picture on the home front.

Some may disagree, but I personally think that we're looking at the beginning of the next downturn.

I think you are smack on the MONEY...OR THE LACK OF IT.....
Seems inflation may be set for a runaway IMHO....
The real inflation rate is being soft pedalled to us...but the reality of your buying power is obviously shrinking month by month....
The prices of meat. grains,fresh vegetables, and other real foods rise with every other shopping trip.....
Even the crapola junk foods I wouldn't feed a dog are going up.....

Spot on with all your research there

and here's more for the fire....

Interesting charts .....

The rich get richer, or so they say. It’s the rich who have the cash for a down payment and the good credit to qualify for a mortgage, so the one segment of the housing market seeing the most activity is the top 1%. For everyone else, the housing recovery is something they only read about in the financial media, but it doesn’t really impact them.

With the current political and financial regime in place, the 1% benefit the most. Federal reserve policy provides cheap debt to inflate asset values, and since the 1% owns most of these assets, they benefit the most from these policies. Tax rates are low by historic standards, and with capital gains taxes at 20%, the rich escape the more onerous income taxes when they sell their profitable assets and move money into real estate. Unless we elect a true populist president and Congress that favors the middle class and the poor over the rich, the 1% will continue to do well, and so will their real estate markets.

Home sales are up for the top 1%, the bottom 99%, not so much

a reply to: xuenchen

Oh yeah, I totally forgot about the housing market in the States. It's a bloodbath.

Since average wage earners are effectively frozen out of the market, that leaves current homeowners who are selling and "moving up". Oops: 20% of all homeowners are effectively underwater and cannot sell/buy another home.

That's a lot of people that are underwater on their mortgage. I also didn't bother to cover the student loan "bubble", either.

I have been saying all along that we will not be able to enjoy a clean environment because we are being forced out of work.

I really am not trying to derail the thread, but I feel that all of the green environmental regulations has alot to do with the stagnating markets. I think that there is a direct correlation between all the epa regulations and job killing policies that are being implemented and the stagnation of economy's that you pointed out.

Why is China stagnating if their regulations, or lack of, is so relaxed? Because the consumer purchasing power here in the states has stagnated due to rising fuel and power/utility costs, which in turn are higher due to EPA regulations. Not only EPA regulations but politically motivated laws and regulations.

Not a popular topic here on ATS I know, but it is not a coincidence.

I believe it is the"green crowd" that is blindly killing the economies.

Just my opinion on the matter.

When everyone is forced to burn tires to stay warm in the winter, we will see how much the green crowd cares.

a reply to: AnIntellectualRedneck

Here is how you really figure out if a crash is coming. The cost of disposable income as it relates to food cost. When it reaches 40% the people will rise up. Right now the the US is under 10% at that means people are still living pretty darn good.


BUT............Anyone making under 14 dollars and hour is going to be screwed in the next few years because of inflation. The banks are holding on to a bunch of printed money that will have to come out of the system at some point. And when it does hyper inflation will come. And anyone making under the amount posted above will not be able to survive. It might take a few more years but it is coming dear readers around the world.

a reply to: SubTruth

You've got a good point. Something to look out for. Just saw this on another website.

link

the Department of Agriculture (DOA) just warned the American public that the consumer price index for food is up by 10% this year.

Given the lag in commodity costs impacting prices on grocery store shelves, annual U.S. food inflation is now running at +22% and rising.

a reply to: AnIntellectualRedneck

At 22% it will not take very long for the low wage earners. We are already seeing it with all the $15 dollar an hour crap. Wow if it really is 22% it might only take one or two more years to happen.



You can also see it with new cars......10 year loans and pushing the leases. People can not afford a 30,000 car financed for 5 years anymore. We also see it in other things like appliances and furniture. When will it reach the tipping point?


Also for everyone reading this that makes above $14-$15 dollars an hour when these people lose everything it will cascade to everyone. So many people are in this boat it will be.........EPIC.

a reply to: AnIntellectualRedneck

I also wanted to add the unemployment extension that never passed. This is huge people 3.5 million and counting starving and losing everything. This could very well be a tipping point in itself. Every week more and more people lose the little bit of money they need to survive.



This money goes right back into the economy and without it millions of families are on the verge. I am surprised the mainstream media is not looking at this it could very well crash the entire darn system. If the president was a smart man he would champion this cause..........Oh well.

a reply to: SubTruth

And I completely forgot about that. That's a lot of people, thought it might already be figured into the system for a lot of them. I wonder if we'll see a huge dip in the unemployment rate in the next month or two and also a huge dip in the labor participation rate.

a reply to: AnIntellectualRedneck

Yep...... TPTB are counting on it for election that is why they are doing nothing. But this is so big it will backfire on them. Million and millions of people losing everything is epic in the making. 75,000 every week are losing the safety net they earned by working.



I often wonder if they want the system to crash? I hate to think like that but actions like this and then comments by the president about Washington in front of the troops really makes me wonder.

And this from the Weather Channel www.weather.com... California Drought Threatens Food Supply of All Americans

"Walk into any grocery store in America and there's a good chance the fresh produce you see there was grown in California. Up to half of the nation's fruit, nuts and vegetables are grown in the Central Valley, one of the planet's most fertile growing regions, between Los Angeles and Sacramento.

Now, for the first time this century, the entire state is in severe to exceptional drought."

a reply to: AreUKiddingMe

Can - and does - the gov't/military control the weather?

How come the gov't isn't doing any thing to fix the obozocare debacle?

Why does it let in thousands - if not millions - of illegal immigrants - when the US is in such a bad economic state?

My opionion is that the gov't knows that something HUGE that they can't control is going to wipe out most of the people - and soon.

They are pushing for a WW3 scenario - but nobody really buys that we're going to go to the Ukraine - or Syria -

One should really look at the nibiru /planet X phenonomen - and the resulting huge earthquakes/sinkholes/pole shift - when looking at what our US gov't isn't bothering to "fix" with any common sense solutions.

I could push the NWO - and the collapse of their bankster money system - but They are so desperate to take our money for themselves and build their underground bunkers (see denver airport) that they really don't care about appearances anymore.

Inflation leverages wealth / ownership.
e.g. you own a home that is at time period 1 worth 150K. Inflation doubles the value of the home to 300K at time period 2. You turn and sell home for a 150K profit. Your money is only worth half as much now, so in real value you have netted 75K. With nothing changing but inflation.

Imagine how that affects ownership valued in the billions, and you begin to see the real picture of why inflation is continually pushed by those in power.

a reply to: AnIntellectualRedneck

This is why im stocking up on food water and ammo big time. When things finally do crash im not going to be shot at walmart fighting over a can a beans because I didnt prepare. It will happen people eventually the almighty dollar will fall and a pack of Ramen noodles will cost 50 bucks or your life. People will be bum rushing supermarkets and shelves will be cleared in a matter of hours. Im just going to bolt my doors load my guns and wait for the animals to whipe themselves out. When things calm down a bit and the people who cant fend forthemselves die off then I will emerge and assess the situation and if things are still bad in the city I live then i head out to super secret hiding spot alpha 1 LOL. Stock up people while you still can.

Wow epic doom porn thread

True the bubble is getting bigger and bigger

But that's true throughout the entire globe after all it's a global recession... It'll require a global effort to get back on the rails...

All in all ... I don't see it anytime soon the debt ceilings will raise once more and the inequality across the globe will will too

a reply to: xuenchen

Right, everything is going up, but not that I focus on zillow a lot, but last month said my home value dropped like 8k, that has never happened maybe 2 or 3 then it comes back, so I also checked, no homes were even sold in the last 30 days in my zip and usually there are lots of homes being sold even in off buying season.

www.abc.net.au...


This has become a massive problem in australia.

Either the chinese are worried and are moving money out of china....or things are just fine and dandy and the talk of china going ass up are just hogwash.

I spoke with my advisor about writing my doctoral thesis on the increase of technology and its effects on the workforce and the economy but he told me that my paper had to be focused in one area such as technology and automation in the auto industry and its effects on employment there. That's fine and dandy but if everyone just writes about a small segment of the economy and never puts it together into a big picture no one is going to know the real state.

My original plan was to write about how as computing power has increased so has our unemployment rate. Basically tie the number of transistors to a chip and the unemployment rate due to automation and technology. I was told I was stupid for wanting to do that.

I firmly believe unemployment will not go down and there will be a new standard for what the unemployment rate will and should be. This coupled with everything else going on in the world and I have no idea how the market hasn't crashed yet.

originally posted by: SubTruth
a reply to: AnIntellectualRedneck

I also wanted to add the unemployment extension that never passed. This is huge people 3.5 million and counting starving and losing everything. This could very well be a tipping point in itself. Every week more and more people lose the little bit of money they need to survive.



This money goes right back into the economy and without it millions of families are on the verge. I am surprised the mainstream media is not looking at this it could very well crash the entire darn system. If the president was a smart man he would champion this cause..........Oh well.

And yet the Obama Administration wants to give 500 million dollars to some rebel group in Syria. As for food prices, it is going to get worse because of the water shortages affecting important agricultural bread baskets such as the Central Valley in California and the disappearance of important pollinators such as bees.