538 - Nate Silver's blog - Obama looking in pretty good shape, page 1

A little bit of insight on who Nate Silver is and his credentials and credibility.

The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 1%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.

In April 2009, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time.

Read more about him Here

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The FiveThirtyEight forecast model has found the past several days of battleground state polling to be reasonably strong for Barack Obama, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing as a result. The intuition behind this ought to be very simple: Mr. Obama is maintaining leads in the polls in Ohio and other states that are sufficient for him to win 270 electoral votes.

Friday featured a large volume of swing state polling, including three polls of Ohio, each of which showed Mr. Obama ahead by margins ranging from two to four percentage points.

- Five Thirty Eight Nate Silver's Political Calculus.

If you go to his blog, there is an interactive map showing the swing states.

Obama has a 76.3% chance of winning Ohio
94% Chance of winning Pennsylvania and 85% Chance of a win in Wisconsin.

In contrast Mitt Romney has a 62.9% Chance of winning in Florida and in Virginia which has showed a strong showing for Mitt Romney it has Obama with a 54.1% of winning Virginia.

Currently Obama has 295 Electoral votes, Mitt Romney has 242.

According to Nate Silver, Obama has a 74.4% Chance of winning re-election.

Five Thirty Eight blog