That said, heres how i think it will go.....
There will be a speedboat incident where suicide speedboats will try to ram the Hormuz patrol group .......
This will be a false flag attack run by mossad who will finance and set up the whole thing....al CIAda can supply the bodies.....
The attack will be beaten back with some loss on the allied side....perhaps a frigate or maybe even a smaller boat than that....
Still, this will be seen as causus belli,and the scrap will unfold from there......i guarantee you that the tactic of massed missile attacks will be
used on the fleet.....There are Syrian Yakhontz anti ship missiles to take into account too and the Iranis have at least a modified sunburn, and maybe
they have their own versions of other types too.....as well as a deadly torpedo of russian design called the shkvaal this torpedo makes the Irani subs
very dangerous if not taken out quickly....but the torpedo itself can be surface launched from fast boats too.....aircraaft launches of exocette type
anti shipping weapons cannot be discounted either....and they do not have to get to a very close in range....
This is no trifling weapon, and is manned by Russian advisors at present because they were just delivered recently.....You will see the fleet either
triumph over the irani technology with high tech of their own, but if their systems do not perform as advertised, or the iranis have a few advanced
missile we dont know of....
The fleet may come acropper early in the fight....with the navy landing and taking planes off of the land bases instead, and the rest of the fleet
launching Tomahawks like no tomorrow.....
As for running the straits.....well i think they either will be effectively blocked early on, or they wll be lined with anti ship and anti aircraft
weapons of all types except the ss 300s which will be at the nuke plants and maybe Teheran or the eyetollas house....
No matter what happens to the nuke plants, it is the Iranian anti ship and aircraft capability that has to be eliminated immediately it starts....Once
the anti aircraft missile batteries are at least plotted if not destroyed, they will begin to concentrate bombing on selected targets....
I would be totally expecting the old Buffs to be the workhorses of the bomb hauling aircraft once more....
B2s will be used for the creamiest and most important hits,as well as the stealthy first strikes...
But the Buffs (B52s) be flying nite and day in all weathers .........
Fighters and fighter bombers will be the anti ack ack sniffing dogs for the packs, and they will shoot anti radar missiles at the first sqeak of any
radar......
Regardless of the airpower, eventually there will have to be boots on the ground to at least secure nuclear materials,or confirm total destruction
down inside the Fordo plant and others which have deep sections....
Barring any unforseen calamity, the campaign should last maybe three months if the Iranis have nothing but imitation weapon systems...(intelligence
here would be an asset, but we dont have much really)
What devilish schemes the enemy may have hatched in the decades long run up to the conflict, theycertainly are not sharing....Their steath flying
boats look hokey but may be effective in the right circumstance....
Suffice it to say, they have the money, and the operatives, to do any number of out of country,(out of theater even)attacks.These may be of mixed
strengths and purposes, but will most assuredly be where they feel they can do the most damage to the war efforts. or the civilian will to persue
hostilities....counting on a tet offenseive to defeat the civillians like in vietnam....
The situation, once the first action ensues, will have the potential to expand rapidly to include anywhere in the world as part of the battle
zone.....
The upshot with this type of warfare is its very unpredictability .......
so i make note, but no predictions here......got many ideas though.....from germ war to suicide subway bombers to industrial attacks on refineries
etc...
perhaps all of above....
The Missile which iran salvoes against foriegn countries, will be the calling cards for the targets to enter the conflict as well....The saudis will
strike the iranis from their own bases, and will have the advanced jets to do it....equal to ysreals anyway....
But i feel they will remain neutral militarily if not hit by iran(no law against more ffs though....dont rule them out)
As will most other of the smaller arab nations untill drawn into the fray through attacks on their soil....either terror or military...
Incirlik will likely be a big jump off for the Buffs, but they al;so can fly from all around the country and tierra Del Fuego hereinafter TDF ok?
The Saudis have the most holy sites in the Islamist religion bar the temple mount....its possible that the Iranis may not try to attack them at
first....
so much for the kick off, where it goes after the first salvo is anyones guess.....not even the experts dare call this one...thats why no war as
yet.....
edit on 16-2-2012 by stirling because: (no reason given)