Iran won't build nuclear weapon in 2012, says draft Isis report

www.guardian.co.uk...

Iran is unlikely to move towards building a nuclear weapon in 2012 because it cannot yet produce enough weapon-grade uranium and is being deterred by sanctions and the prospect of an Israeli attack, according to a draft report by the Institute for Science and International Security (Isis).

The report by the institute founded by nuclear expert David Albright offers a more temperate view of Iran's nuclear program than some of the heated rhetoric that has surfaced since the United States and its allies stepped up sanctions on Tehran.

The Isis analysis is revealed after a prediction that Israel will attack Iran in 2012 to try and stop any nuclear bomb programme.

"Iran is unlikely to decide to dash toward making nuclear weapons as long as its uranium enrichment capability remains as limited as it is today," the report said.

How fear of Iran nukes, and campaign politics, revived the call

The idea that regime change is the only viable and lasting solution to the challenges posed by Iran – its advancing nuclear program, its sharpened brinkmanship over the Strait of Hormuz, its support for Islamist extremist movements around the world – has received growing attention and support from Republican presidential candidates vying to out-tough one another on Iran policy.

www.csmonitor.com...

So what to believe the US fear that Iran is making nuclear weapons or the story that Iran won't build nuclear weapons this year? It seems lately that US is pushing to make it seem like Iran is a threat, another weapons of mass destruction theme playing out. Iraq was supposedly a maker of nuclear weapons of mass destruction and how many were found after tearing the country to pieces = 0.

Finally some sanity...but it wont last. Soon this thread will be overrun with brainwashed warmongers shouting "death to Iran".

The fear mongering from the US and Israel is pure propaganda, aimed at obtaining the support of the masses for an unjust attack on a potential energy superpower. The PTB fear Iran's oil and uranium, not its imaginary weapons of mass destruction.

reply to post by mileslong54

So what to believe the US fear that Iran is making nuclear weapons or the story that Iran won't build nuclear weapons this year? It seems lately that US is pushing to make it seem like Iran is a threat, another weapons of mass destruction theme playing out. Iraq was supposedly a maker of nuclear weapons of mass destruction and how many were found after tearing the country to pieces = 0.

Bingo. I'm so tired of this crap. To avoid much repetition and reciting of sources, please see my posts here, here, and here.

Long story short, there's nothing suggesting they even truly want to build the bomb, and if they did, it's understandable from a deterrent standpoint. Regardless, absent further provocation, they are acting rationally and will not cease to do so. Plenty of our military experts, the IAEA, our NIEs, our energy analysts, Israeli intelligence, etc. all agree on these facts.

It seems **politicians** are the only ones offering serious challenge to these facts - and I'm not aware of many people who tend to think positively of the motivations of politicians...especially when they disagree so starkly with so many experts and oversight agencies.

reply to post by mileslong54

So what to believe the US fear that Iran is making nuclear weapons or the story that Iran won't build nuclear weapons this year?

So I guess the sanctions are working eh?

Iran is unlikely to move towards building a nuclear weapon in 2012 because it cannot yet produce enough weapon-grade uranium and is being deterred by sanctions

reply to post by SLAYER69
Yeah...or according to others I'd like to believe, they aren't making serious efforts in that direction anyway, since the sanctions have only been in place for...how long?

Talk about a weak justification for something extraneous by pointing to the absence of what experts have consistently said doesn't exist anyway...

reply to post by SLAYER69


I don't know about the sanctions being true or not, just found this article and found it interesting as here in the US we seem to be hearing a different message.

Originally posted by SLAYER69

So I guess the sanctions are working eh?

They're working brilliantly...along with making nuclear scientists think twice before offering their respective services.

www.guardian.co.uk...

reply to post by Praetorius


Fair enough

Yet, the OP quoted the source and built their thread premise around it.
I was just helping Alice explore that rabbit hole.

Originally posted by SLAYER69
reply to post by Praetorius

 

Fair enough

Yet, the OP quoted the source and built their thread premise around it.
I was just helping Alice explore that rabbit hole.

Indeed. But we might as well go big in that case and bring in secret off-site installations in and financing/cooperation with Venezuela, Russia, and China (among others), turning the whole thing into a shell game of misdirection and false hope provided by the attempted oversight - which is obviously known to those in friendly intelligence agencies, but they have to maintain poker face to prevent panic in the masses.

Little known even to them, however, is that Venezuela has secretly been working with the Nazi remnants in Argentina by co-opting the expertise and resources received from this alliance to bring Die Glocke to fruition as a game-changer for all. Hugo Chavez FTW?

Originally posted by SLAYER69
reply to post by mileslong54

 

So what to believe the US fear that Iran is making nuclear weapons or the story that Iran won't build nuclear weapons this year?

So I guess the sanctions are working eh?

Iran is unlikely to move towards building a nuclear weapon in 2012 because it cannot yet produce enough weapon-grade uranium and is being deterred by sanctions

No, they aren't.

1- They would only come into effect in July, mid-July.

2- Iran has already replaced clients, on it's own, shifting from western clients to countries more to the east.

3- Iran has gained support from China and India, since now they are they biggest clients and even more loyal, since they don't obey to sanctions. Besides, to China is win-win. They get to own a US card, and buy cheap oil due to easier negotiations.

3.5- Iran has agreed, along with China and India to replace gold currency instead of dollar, for trade between them, sending a clear message to the american economic dominance.

4- Saying that "sanctions are working" is the same as saying that Iran was in fact searching for nuclear weapons, while what people need to realize, is that Iran was never looking to build nuclear weapons, only nuclear energy.

5- The newspaper said that phrase, not Iran. Iran actually maintains it's strong position. Today a representative of the Iran gov said "if we can't sell oil, then nobody can", and the article continues to explain that they consider unfair how other countries continue to sell oil and do as they please, protected by the US, and Iran is being thrown to the lions. Isn't that a very sane argument coming from a country and regime that is portrayed as "crazy" and a "risk to world safety"? Figures.

reply to post by Praetorius


Interesting reply.
Correct me if I'm wrong here but doesn't Hugo have cancer and may not be with us that much longer?

How would his demise fit into your theory?

Originally posted by Tifozi
3- Iran has gained support from China and India, since now they are they biggest clients and even more loyal, since they don't obey to sanctions. Besides, to China is win-win. They get to own a US card, and buy cheap oil due to easier negotiations.

With regards to China and Iran on the Development of Nuclear weapons. [This threads Premise] Here's a little fly in that ointment..

China turns on Iran: No nukes...

Iran slipped further into global isolation on Thursday as China, its traditional ally, warned Tehran against its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Originally posted by SLAYER69

Originally posted by Tifozi
3- Iran has gained support from China and India, since now they are they biggest clients and even more loyal, since they don't obey to sanctions. Besides, to China is win-win. They get to own a US card, and buy cheap oil due to easier negotiations.

With regards to China and Iran on the Development of Nuclear weapons. [This threads Premise] Here's a little fly in that ointment..

China turns on Iran: No nukes...

Iran slipped further into global isolation on Thursday as China, its traditional ally, warned Tehran against its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

edit on 26-1-2012 by SLAYER69 because: (no reason given)

China isn't threatning Iran. They are making public references that do nothing.

They say "no nukes Iran".... O'really? The whole point of this is that Iran never wanted to seek nuclear weapons.

If your parents tell you "don't drink and drive", doesn't mean they know you are drinking and driving... They are cautioning you for your best interest.

And by the way, you know what China also said recently (as in, TODAY)? That they consider the sanctions unfair, counter-productive and not the path to follow. They are DEFENDING Iran.


Dudes... Wake up.

reply to post by SLAYER69
You aren't supposed to inject rationality into my lunacies, Slayer...

Regardless, if I were a betting man and somehow any bit of what I said were true, I would also say that everyone knows Chavez is only playing the part after DARPA gave him cancer - the Argentinian Nazi scientists have obviously had this under control for decades now, and he's in no imminent risk.

That said, to avoid further derailment of the thread, I'll stop there and simply agree with the OP in saying that I'm also fairly sure - for different reasons - Iran will not build a nuke this year.

(for further installments of my Fourth Reich saga, however, you may PM me directly...cybernetics, cryonics, and genetic manipulation. Exciting!)

reply to post by SLAYER69


How many times in the Economic threads have we seen China "warn" the US about actions taken?

Warnings are like cookies in China, they country is full of them.

reply to post by Tw0Sides


Imagine opening a fortune cookie, and the message reads "Actions against Iran will have dire consequences"

reply to post by Tifozi

reply to post by Tw0Sides




OK. The both of you, calm down.

We see many here at ATS on a daily basis making claims. On the one hand they state repeatedly that if the US/West attacks Iran China will jump in because they've made statements to that affect. Yet, When China warns Iran not to pursue a Nuclear weapons program.

Now, All of a sudden, it's just Chinese rhetoric to be dismissed.

reply to post by Tw0Sides
Not sure if trolling, or...you do know fortune cookies are an american innovation and don't exist in China in any appreciable volume or cultural capacity, right? Or is there some kind of cookie surplus I'm not aware of?

Sorry if I'm missing the obvious humor...it happens.

Regardless, it's not anything I've ever looked deeply at, but even from a non-military standpoint, I'm sure China could definitely put some pain on us if we finally got them riled up enough. And the Iran thing definitely has the potential to do it, which is why I don't think we'll see much more beyond some of these covert actions that appear to be occurring.

Take care.

Originally posted by SLAYER69

OK. The both of you, calm down.

We see many here at ATS on a daily basis making claims. On the one hand they state repeatedly that if the US/West attacks Iran China will jump in because they've made statements to that affect. Yet, When China warns Iran not to pursue a Nuclear weapons program.

Now, All of a sudden, it's just Chinese rhetoric to be dismissed.

? I am calm...

You're mixing arguments and data to suit your own personal view, which is undermining your "cause" (lack of better word).

China isn't blaming or attacking Iran like you seem to portray. China is being reasonable. They are saying "don't do anything stupid", like any sane person would do, and then they keep close ties with Iran. They are RIGHT NOW negotiation oil trade, for the better good of both.

And one thing doesn't exclude the other. China being supportive to Iran, while being socially responsible in it's remarks, doesn't make someone's brain go "do not compute".

If western countries sanction Iran, China won't. If western countries separate them-self's of Iran, China won't. And maybe if the US does something stupid and attacks Iran, China and Russia might jump in, because, like most of the world, they are sick and tired of US foreign policy and conquering attitude.

China is making the smart move, making the best of the situation presently, and if SHTF, they will act then... If they act at all.

reply to post by Tifozi



China has stated one thing [which is accepted by some] then is ignored on other issues because it is deemed unrelated. Meanwhile, their credibility is on the line. I wouldn't be so cocked sure about China and Iran's relationship. In Geopolitics things sometimes change in an instance esp when the wind blows in favor of one country's interests over another.


You're speaking in the definitive where there really are none.