Fear Recoupling in ’12, Not End of the World: "but at times it may feel as if it’s about to"

Fear Recoupling in ’12, Not End of the World - Bloomberg

The Mayans were wrong. The world won’t end in 2012, but at times it may feel as if it’s about to. Such is Asia’s lot as Europe’s debt debacle and the U.S.’s political paralysis fuse, presenting challenges for leaders from Beijing to Jakarta.

In a less chaotic time, this might have been Asia’s big moment. News this week that Japan and China will promote direct trading of yen and yuan without using dollars is a case in point. An eastward shift of power and capital would seem to be a given as Brussels and Washington turn inward. Yet a worsening global environment will interrupt Asia’s path to economic dominance.

Here are eight risks that may get in Asia’s way:

Risks 1,3 and 8 cited only....

No. 1. Recoupling. Asia steered around the U.S. meltdown in 2008 with remarkable agility. Doing that will be harder in the 12 months ahead as all of the world’s major growth engines stall or go into reverse. Default risks in Europe will increase, the U.S.’s funk will persist in an election year, Japan’s malaise will deepen and China will hit a soft patch. With deft fiscal and monetary maneuvering, Asia grew impressively in the three- plus years since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. imploded. A repeat performance is unlikely.

No. 3. Occupy Wukan. It’s getting harder for China to keep its 1.3 billion people from hearing about events in a coastal village in Guangdong province. There, thousands of people fed up with land seizures took to the streets and forced out Communist Party officials. This Occupy Wall Street dynamic is a startling contrast to the usual success China has in quashing any hint of public discord. As the New York Times points out, there are at least 625,000 potential Wukans in China. The 12 months ahead will be busy for China’s thought police.

No. 8. China’s Bust. It’s a make-or-break year for China’s efforts to defy the economic laws of gravity. A bad-debt hangover from the huge stimulus of recent years is a distinct possibility. Markedly slower growth would be a nightmare for a Communist Party obsessed with social stability. It also would be a big blow to a country such as Australia, which is more vulnerable to a Chinese slump than officials in Canberra admit.

Should the second-biggest economy join the U.S., Europe and Japan in the slow-growth club, Asia would find itself in treacherous territory. That wouldn’t be the end of the world as the Mayans anticipated for 2012, but it would be different than the one we’ve come to know.

Yes much different to the world we know. Contrary to popular opinion, students of the Mayan prophecies do not see a literal end of the world at end 2012, but rather a paradigm shift of thought and new age. Considering what could be a meltdown of the current system, begs the question what could replace it. A new world order with a world government? World parliament? Global currency? Empowering of global institutions toward enforcing world laws? There are movements seeking urgently to implement such a system in haste. See here, here, and here for an example of one of those movements with clear references to their world government and new world order agenda.

So here we have a Bloomberg Asian economics columnists suggesting the possibility (should those risk factors materialise) of a world that "would be different than the one we’ve come to know". Interesting convergence of economic events with the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the US in a downward debt spiral and sluggish growth, and Asia at risk of a downturn, with China (one of the the world's few bastions of global economic growth) looking increasingly shaky, putting at risk a number of countries around the world, most notably Australia. 2012 is going to be an interesting year.

Should also be noted too, that significant widespread social unrest in China begins to occur with growth less than 8 per cent.

In 2008 china underwent major stimulas programs which meant building vast new cities
shopping malls and many other projects. the trouble of this is that china now has alot of loans
going bad at the moment at the local goverrnment level, a hugely overpriced housing market which
is funded buy many "shadow banking" agencies. All of which will be a problem when they need
to pull a second rabbit out of there hat, as for Australia riding high on the wave of chines investment
we'll probably see a lot of that new investment money being taken out of the pipeline. thats billions of
dollalars worth not being invested. Australia should be putting more of it's money into defence at the
moment because this ride is gonna get scarry.
A massive arms race in the Asia pacific is going to mean alot of new tech is either going to be sitting
gathering dust with no one looking after it or countries will try to increase the amount of resauces they can
put there hand on quickly. my guess the chines will toddle over to Western Australia and Anex a valuable
chunk and say mine.. you can't have it. and nobody will be able to say boo about it becasue of the consequences.