SCI/TECH: El Nino Could Possibly Develop in 3-6 Months., page 1

In a report issued last Thursday the Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration stated that "El Nino conditions are expected to develop during the next three months," temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean have risen, indicating "possible early stages of a warm episode."

El Nino Forecast to Return to Pacific in 3 Months
"Approximately half of the statistical and coupled model forecasts indicate near neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific through the end of 2004. The remaining forecasts indicate El Ni�o conditions will develop within the next 3-6 months," it added.

A Kelvin wave which is pushing the warm waters eastward has been observed, contributing to "an increase in the subsurface temperature anomalies in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Ocean). This Kelvin wave is expected to reach the South American coast during August," the Center said.

El Nino is a weather phenomenon which leads to an abnormal warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, recurring roughly once every three years.

The anomaly was first noticed by Latin American anchovy fishermen in the 19th century and was named in honor of the Christ child because it would take place around the year-end Christmas holiday season.

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The article continues saying that severe El Ninos have happened in 1997/98 and 2002/03. While they cause droughts in some areas as Australia, the Philipines and Indonesia, they cause rampant flooding in Chile, Ecuador and Bolivia. The worse drought in a century in Australia was caused by the 2002/03 El Nino.

Related Links
EL NI�O/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

El Nino/La Nina Watch

El Nino, La Nina and the Southern Oscillation