Middle East uprisings, and how they could effect us..., page 1

all over the middle east, young populations unhappy with the power and privilege of the ruling elites are rising. It is also notable that a crucial proportion of the demonstrators are under 25's. They have been spreading their message using mobile phones and social networking sites.
here are a list of countries and the likely hood they will be the next to topple in this domino effect of regime's falling, and the effects this will have on the west.

Bahrain
leader: king hamad ibn isa al khalifi
population; 1.2million (under 25's 43.9%)
100% with mobiles
chance of fall: 4/5

-Although the king agreed to some democracy, in reality power has been held by his uncle, the prime minister since the gulf islands independence in 1971.
-The royal al khafi clan provide all key government officials.
-They are Sunni Muslims that are ruling over Shiites, which are two-thirds of the people.

The situation in Bahrain with a government about to fall could destabilize neighboring Arab kingdoms.

Effects of fall on the west
Regime change could mean a pro western government would be one more critical of the U.S.A

Lybia
Leader: Colonel Gaddafi
poulation: 6.5million (under 25's 47%)
16% with mobiles.
chance of fall 4/5

-Colonel Gaddafi 66, has been in power since 1969, making him the worlds longest serving ruler.

Gaddafi has kept control of the army and police in the hands of his clansmen, although there are not enough gaddafi's to control everyone. This might cause rival clans to unite against him.

effects of fall on west
any future regime is likely to be more predictable and so will be easier for the west. firms already working in the country such as Britains BP could find regime change awkward.

jordan
leader:king abdullah II
population:6.5 million (under 25's 54%)
92% with mobiles.
chance of fall 3/5

-lacking oil wealth, it has high inflation and rising energy prices.
-There is a parliment but in reality king abdullah holds the reins of power.
-Half the poulation are under 25, also half are palestinians.

The bedouin tribesman who provide the kings power base are growing unhappy about inflation and favouritism towards the queens family.

effects of fall on the west
as one of two Arab states, along with Egypt to make peace with Israel, a change of regime in jordan, could shift it against the west, especially if the palestinian majority takes power.

Morocco
leader: King Mohammed VI
population: 32.4million (under 25's 48%)
85% with mobiles
chances of fall 3/5

-There is a parliment, but the real power lies with the king.
-his courtiers control most of the economy.
-poverty and youth unemployment are big issues.
-islamic groups are challenging the claim of the king to be a true muslim calliph

it is not really clear how deep the loyalty for the monarchy runs.

effects of a fall on the west
morocco has much to offer tourists at low prices. political uncertainty could produce anarchy and a crime wave. the fall of the morocco monarchy could change the country from an ally to the west into a potential regional opponent run by radical Muslims

Algeria
leader: president abdelaziz boutefika
population: 35.9 million (under 25's 47%)
90%with mobiles.

-in theory a republic but in practise a military dictatorship.
-after 1990 the scene of a civil war between military and islamic fundamentalists
-major exporter in natural gas
-its people live in bottom half of worlds earners.

with 60,000 people killed in the civil war, ordinary Algerians will be cautious about taking on security forces again.

effects of a fall on the west
.an anti western, islamist regime would likely follow a revolution. we would also see fuel prices rise.

iran
leader: supreme leader ali khamenael
population:72 million (under 25's 50%)
76% with mobiles
chance of fall 2/5

-since 1979 has been islamic republic
-ruled by supreme leader, with a president currently Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, under him.

hardship helped spur demonstrations but brutal police, and millions of fundamentalist loyalists could supress change.

effect fall would have on the west
any change in regime in iran would be a plus for the west. until the islamic revoloution in 1979 Britain was a major trading partner, it could recover that position.
ousting irans mullahs would also make it easier democratising arab states in the gulf.

syria

leader: presidnet bashar al-assad
population: 22.5 million (under 25's 55%)
50 % with mobiles
chance of fall 2/5

-supposed to be a republic but in 2000 bashar al-assad succeeded his father as president.
-the assads have ruled syria since 1970.
-there is a strong islamist underground movement but is brutally repressed.

unemployment and poverty are big problems with the average income well below the world average.

effects of fall on west
given the regimes alliance with iran and hostility to the west. any change of regime would likely lead to a more pro western goverment. the sunni majority are suspicious of the shiite iran.

Yemen
leader:president ali abdullah saleh.
population:24 million (under 25's 65%)
29% with mobiles
chance of fall 4/5

-one of the worlds poorest countries.
-average earnings £500 per year.
-youngest population in the region.

the situation is already chaotic.

effects of fall on west
Yemen dominates the entrance to the red sea so further chaos could interfere with shipping, already pressured by pirates from nearby somalia. president saleh has previously backed america against local al qaeda terrorists. his fall could bring anti westerners to power. regions and tribes may also squabble for power.

Saudi Arabia
leader: king abdullah bin abdul aziz
poulation:27.1 million (under 25's 50%)
100% with mobiles.
chance of fall 2/5

-an absoloute monarchy since the saudi royal family seized power in 1932.
-they enforce rigid fundamentalism, with capital and corporal punishment.
-40,000 strong saudi royal clan

the saudi royal family use their status as rulers of the prophet Mohammads birthplace mecca, to play the role of leaders of the islamic world. the country currently appears stable, but any any revoloution will be explosive.

effects of fall on west
any regime change could turn against the west as a sign of change. could also boost its oil prices.

UAE
leader: president khalifa bin zayad al nahyan
population:4.9 million (under 25's 50%)
100% with mobiles.
chance of fall 1/5

-7 emirs jointly run these 7 former british protectorates.
-third highest average income.
-only 20% of the population are native.
-twice as many mobiles as people.

the UAE emirs are flush with money. they can bail out dubai and pay off any potential discontent among the small native population.

effects fall would have on west
100,000 British expats would be in trouble, as would many brits with property there.