Another meaningless Rally?

US Stock Futures Rise After Jobless Claims Decline; DJIA Futures Up 42

The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for jobless benefits declined by 21,000 to 454,000 in the week ended July 3. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected claims would fall by 12,000. That last time claims dropped by so much was in mid-April.

interesting to note they dont say which jobs or which sector the jobs belong to.

The International Monetary Fund said late Wednesday that the global economy will continue to recover this year and next, despite the turbulence from Europe and worries about sovereign debt. Turbulence in financial markets has "cast a cloud over the outlook," the IMF said.

This is a priceless statement


money.cnn.com...

A stronger euro helped propel commodity shares, cooling some worries about the European debt crisis.

And we should believe because Cnn an article says so?



Anyone here has opinions about current fake rise of the markets?


[edit on 8-7-2010 by Agent_USA_Supporter]

reply to post by Agent_USA_Supporter


Hello Agent_USA_Supporter-

It is all a house of cards. There is alot more short term buying and selling to make a profit. They just drive the price up and use lame justification for the rise in the stock to get others to buy so they can sell. The people who are really taking the hit are the people with 401K's. In my opinion I think we would be better off without wall street. Here is the first recorded speculative bubble ever recorded and it was from tulip's no less. This is the same thing that alot of stocks are doing which is why I feel we would be better off without wall street. As you will see there was no reason for this to happen just stupid people making stupid decisions like we are still doing to this day.

Tulip mania or tulipomania (Dutch names include: tulpenmanie, tulpomanie, tulpenwoede, tulpengekte and bollengekte) was a period in the Dutch Golden Age during which contract prices for bulbs of the recently introduced tulip reached extraordinarily high levels and then suddenly collapsed.[2] At the peak of tulip mania in February 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled craftsman. It is generally considered the first recorded speculative bubble (or economic bubble),[3] although some researchers have noted that the Kipper- und Wipperzeit episode in 1619-22, a Europe-wide chain of debasement of the metal content of coins to fund warfare, featured mania-like similarities to a bubble.[4] The term "tulip mania" is now often used metaphorically to refer to any large economic bubble (when asset prices deviate from intrinsic values).[5]

The event was popularized in 1841 by the book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, written by British journalist Charles Mackay. According to Mackay, at one point 12 acres (5 ha) of land were offered for a Semper Augustus bulb.[6] Mackay claims that many such investors were ruined by the fall in prices, and Dutch commerce suffered a severe shock. Although Mackay's book is a classic that is widely reprinted today, his account is contested. Many modern scholars believe that the mania was not as extraordinary as Mackay described, with some arguing that the price changes may not have constituted a bubble.[7][8]

Research on the tulip mania is difficult because of the limited data from the 1630s—much of which comes from biased and anti-speculative sources.[9][10] Although these explanations are not generally accepted, some modern economists have proposed rational explanations, rather than a speculative mania, for the rise and fall in prices. For example, other flowers, such as the hyacinth, also had high prices on the flower's introduction, which then fell dramatically. The high prices may also have been driven by expectations of a parliamentary decree that contracts could be voided for a small cost—thus lowering the risk to buyers.

en.wikipedia.org...

added- if we really want this madness on wall stree to stop people need to quit putting money into their 401k's and quit putting money into the stock market, let the rich take money from themselves.

[edit on 8-7-2010 by Trudge]

[edit on 8-7-2010 by Trudge]

reply to post by Trudge


You would rather put your money into a savings account than a 401(k)?

Do you understand what a 401(k) is and how it is taxed?

For example, if you have worked for 20 years, this puts us at 1990. If you would have started your 401(k) contributions in 1990 into a fund that offers 70% bonds and 30% stocks in US Equities you would be quite wealthy.

The only thing that is keeping Americans (anyone) from attaining wealth is short term personal greed in the form of leveraging debt to equity and the long term implications of such short term greed.

I am not sure what tulips or anything else has to do with this though.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


the tulip crash shows how people make prices rise for no reason. I'm mean lets get real, trying to buy a tulip bulb for 12 achers of land? Yesterdays almost 300 point rally was because? I agree, if you were to make the right decesions you can get lucky and make alot of money. Trading Stocks is gambling and there is always a winner and a looser, almost all of the loosers however are people with 401K's.

www.chartswingtrader.com...

We remain in a tricky market for both bears and bulls because timing these moves has proven difficult. For instance, many bulls were really expecting a "bottom" last Thursday after selling off for so long. Instead, they had frustrating sessions with intraday selloffs Thursday, Friday, and yesterday. I am curious how many bulls gave up after those three days and didn't benefit from today's squeeze. For the bears, the terrible intraday action of those three days along with a failure at 1040 for the S&P gave many of them courage to stay short or initiate shorts expecting the market to really fall apart since it didn't bounce. I am sure many of them were frustrated today as well. The market (and this is probably due mainly to the thin summer volume) is throwing a lot of false signals to traders and it is tough to make complete sense out of them. Perhaps it is just me however.

I have learned not to be surprised by anything in this stock market so I will keep my mind open to further upside here but I continue to think we have lower prices in store for us over the next few weeks to months. The bounce that finally has come may last longer than some think (again, just to frustrate and confuse as many traders as possible) but overall I think it will fail. If my numbers start looking more bullish and I see more patterns start setting up, then I will change my outlook, but as of now, I still see a lot of ugly charts and a lot of damage that needs time to be fixed. Good luck Thursday.

Added-

Here is one about 401k's

www.cbsnews.com...

(CBS) The effects of the current economic crisis have touched everyone. Even if you still have a good job and a paid up mortgage, chances are your monthly 401(k) statement will remind you that you've lost a good chunk of your savings.

Trillions of dollars have evaporated from those accounts that have become the prime source of retirement funds for a majority of American workers, affecting their psyche and their future. If you are still young enough, there's time to rebuild and recover, but if you are in your 50s, 60s or beyond the consequences can be dire, and its drawing attention to the shortcomings of a retirement system that has jeopardized the financial security of tens of millions of people.

[edit on 8-7-2010 by Trudge]

Originally posted by Trudge
reply to post by GreenBicMan

 

the tulip crash shows how people make prices rise for no reason. I'm mean lets get real, trying to buy a tulip bulb for 12 achers of land? Yesterdays almost 300 point rally was because? I agree, if you were to make the right decesions you can get lucky and make alot of money. Trading Stocks is gambling and there is always a winner and a looser, almost all of the loosers however are people with 401K's.

www.chartswingtrader.com...

We remain in a tricky market for both bears and bulls because timing these moves has proven difficult. For instance, many bulls were really expecting a "bottom" last Thursday after selling off for so long. Instead, they had frustrating sessions with intraday selloffs Thursday, Friday, and yesterday. I am curious how many bulls gave up after those three days and didn't benefit from today's squeeze. For the bears, the terrible intraday action of those three days along with a failure at 1040 for the S&P gave many of them courage to stay short or initiate shorts expecting the market to really fall apart since it didn't bounce. I am sure many of them were frustrated today as well. The market (and this is probably due mainly to the thin summer volume) is throwing a lot of false signals to traders and it is tough to make complete sense out of them. Perhaps it is just me however.

I have learned not to be surprised by anything in this stock market so I will keep my mind open to further upside here but I continue to think we have lower prices in store for us over the next few weeks to months. The bounce that finally has come may last longer than some think (again, just to frustrate and confuse as many traders as possible) but overall I think it will fail. If my numbers start looking more bullish and I see more patterns start setting up, then I will change my outlook, but as of now, I still see a lot of ugly charts and a lot of damage that needs time to be fixed. Good luck Thursday.

I think you are getting concepts mixed up in your thinking.

Commodities going up and down really have nothing to do with US Equities. Even so, there is a reason it is going up and down, it is called speculation and price discovery.

Quoting some blog about recent market movements doesn't mean anything either. You are just finding someone that agrees with your short term opinion that has nothing to do with my question.

Back to my only point though. Can you explain how you would have been better off stuffing money into your mattress over the past 20 years rather than investing in a long term stable growth fund in a 401(k)?

Originally posted by GreenBicMan

I think you are getting concepts mixed up in your thinking.

Commodities going up and down really have nothing to do with US Equities. Even so, there is a reason it is going up and down, it is called speculation and price discovery.

Quoting some blog about recent market movements doesn't mean anything either. You are just finding someone that agrees with your short term opinion that has nothing to do with my question.

Back to my only point though. Can you explain how you would have been better off stuffing money into your mattress over the past 20 years rather than investing in a long term stable growth fund in a 401(k)?

Well, you could start your own small buisness. You can also put your money into CD's or a savings account, but right now because of the economy you won't get much return but at least you won't loose any money. I have patents pending right now and am finishing my prototype this week and am already in contact with some companies. There are many things we can do with our money.

[edit on 8-7-2010 by Trudge]

Just so you all know, after the war in yugoslavia, bosnia everyone and every citizen atleast the mulism thought so, they thought that an religion state would make there lives better, but it didnt.


Bosnia Unemployment rate: 40% (2009 est.) 2010
Millions of people are out of work, yet islam is taking over the country doesnt care about the citizens.

The only thing that is re building in bosnia are mosques, military checkpoints and guard posts.



Greece is in the hot water like america at the moment.



If i were i would stop watching every news networks.

Originally posted by Agent_USA_Supporter

The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for jobless benefits declined by 21,000 to 454,000 in the week ended July 3. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected claims would fall by 12,000. That last time claims dropped by so much was in mid-April.

interesting to note they dont say which jobs or which sector the jobs belong to.

So instead of 463,000 claiming initial jobless benefits, it is only 454,000.

Is that the good news that will push a recovery??

Originally posted by wutone

Originally posted by Agent_USA_Supporter

The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for jobless benefits declined by 21,000 to 454,000 in the week ended July 3. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected claims would fall by 12,000. That last time claims dropped by so much was in mid-April.

interesting to note they dont say which jobs or which sector the jobs belong to.

So instead of 463,000 claiming initial jobless benefits, it is only 454,000.

Is that the good news that will push a recovery??

Is that the good news that will push a recovery??

What Recovery??


Dont tell me your buying into the whole world is in recovery mode, becaues its not.


And no those numbers arent real, they had to make a little story to support this rally otherwise it wont be a rally without some silly nonseasne stories.



Please tell me why do you believe these stories? just asking out of curiosity.





[edit on 8-7-2010 by Agent_USA_Supporter]

reply to post by Agent_USA_Supporter


Nah I am just pointing out the newspeak.

Losing 454,000 jobs is not a recovery. It's just funny how people consider it good news that we could have lost 463,000 jobs instead of 454,000 jobs.

That's like saying that the future is bright because I only lost 8 fingers when I expected to lose 9.

To keep pace with population growth, jobs have to increase by 100,000 per month to keep the same population/jobs ratio (Ref: MarketWatch).

The population/employment ratio was at 63.5 in Jun 2007, now around 58.5 (Ref: EMRATIO.

According the BLS, from Jun 2007 to Jun 2010 the labor population grew by 5,997,000 and employment should have grown by that amount also, but it shrank (7,076,000). We need 13,073,000 jobs plus 190,000 more per month that passes to cover population growth.

To recover in 10 years, we'll need those 13M jobs lost, plus 22.8M to keep up with 10 years of population growth (190K * 120 months). That is on average 298,000 jobs growth per month.

[edit on 9-7-2010 by Dbriefed]

I think the market is going to take a huge hit in about 3 weeks.

I'm just an ameteur with stock, but it is what I see.

If you would have put your 401k money, into silver gold and other physical assets all this time you'd be very wealthy too and also not funding the corruption of trading paper on the markets..

However I have a 401k, and I do contribute but only enough to get my employers max matching contributions. for me its a cheap way to gamble my employers and my money away tax free.. Iv'e made out pretty good .. however if I were able to take that money and do anything I wish with it it would all go into hard physical assets... all my savings goes in to physical assets.

reply to post by E-ville


What length of time are you talking? It can't be > 10 years.


Think about this for a second before someone else goes into another tirade about how metals are so great and makes me puke all over my keyboard. It is getting laughable.

The adjusted for inflation price of gold in the 1980's was $2,251. So, currently we have hit a recent high of $1250.

So, again, how is holding metals like silver and gold so great? I am having a hard time seeing your POV because since 1980 the DJIA has grown exponentially.




Data Points