Blow out preventer should fail on or before July 4th

That's my prediction, notice how it's about 15 degree off center AND the oil flow increasing. Because this is an uncontrolled well gullies form in the reservoir causing more sediment to gush out only weakening the well casing .

so we're at around 80,000bpd NOW


I would be surprised if it lasts 2 more weeks.

I think that's a pretty sensible prediction. I've been watching the leak day by day. I mean looking at it, "leak" is the wrong word at this point i would say, eruption. Just seems to be slowly, getting worse, as far as the impressions from the visuals.

Thinking about the amount of wear, with all that force and some dirt mixed in, coming out it looks more like a giant sandblaster. I wonder how much is ground up dirt, mud, etc. or if its just the play of light? It sure looks like dirt in there now more then before.

Don't know but, i think they'll be real lucky if it holds in until they get the relief wells actually going.

By the way, the cam i'm watching now is the Skandi ROV2.... look at that sucker go now!

Un-believable! Actually it seemed even worse a minute ago, when they were zoomed out a little more, i really seem to get a better sense of it. I think now they zoom in too close, it kind of makes it lose a sense of scale, for me anyway.

Uhmm.....it's already failed.

We are in a heap of trouble.

The eruption coming from the BP disaster is exclusively showing a natural gas/,methane gas eruption mixed with dirt.

We are sooo screwed.

So what happens when/if it fails? I'm a little confused though. Didn't it already fail? Or is it just barely hanging in there preventing a little bit of what could be>

reply to post by ~Lucidity


Just so we're all on the same idea here, i take it to mean, the whole structure lets go from the floor, and it starts spewing out of the bottom?

I think that's where it's headed.

If the BOP fails, the pressure will sooner of later blow all of the pipes (restrictions to the unrestrained flow) out of the ground. Once this happens, the oil/gas will come out of the resevior like water from a popped balloon.

reply to post by ~Lucidity




It is the difference between sliding down a pole and freefalling.
In both you are actually falling but in one you have a little control.
When the BOP fully fails the oil will be in a like freefall.
And then everything gets real cool, explosions, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!
But boy will it be cool!
(Edit) cuz i r a doofus.

[edit on 21-6-2010 by g146541]

We have such a laissez-faire government attitude about this whole situation.

Let's take any and all help in this hugely magnified situation. I don't care if it's Iran or Kevin Costner. Lets clean this mess up.

We have a more than proud president of the U.S.A. and a more than proud world leadership (so t seems). They don't care!!!

No offense Oboma, please don't visit my house.

But clearly, we have many countries that want to help us clean this mess up. Let's take everything we can get to take care of this issue.

BP does not give a crap. They took their money and secured their futures. They are stomping and placing on fire our Animals! I can not stand by and take this. This is the BRISTISH! And our U.S.A. of is taking a back seat. WTF?!

The Gulf is OUR region. Not BP's. They can go to hell as far as I am concerned.

Oboma, take responsibility and invite all... that can help. This is THE worst natural catastrophe that has ever occurred in our lifetimes.

reply to post by slugger9787


Ok guys the bop was removed the well pipe was cut and now has a cap placed on it to capture flow. If your going to come up with nightmare scenarios at least know what your talking about. Listen if you want to know what there really doing BP puts there meetings online in pdf format and read the daily updates from Robert Wine.

If you did you would realize it the bop has no purpose anymore now that they installed the LMRP cap. its currently capturing 13,000 barrels expected to be able to grab about 16,000. On the Q4000 there getting 10.000 a day. The plan is to add a coupler to the cap and this may capture all the oil but they are adding 3 risers as backup. Either way its estimated they are getting about 60,000 barrels a day from the well. But expect by mid July to be able to capture 80,000 a day they want to be able to handle excess in case of problems. As ive been looking into this i have to admit they have a plan and it seems to be working

That would be funny if it was all a looped tape from the first week
and in reality it has stopped.

This is NOT a natural disaster. This is NOT a spill.

This is a man made disaster, made by "men" of greed.

This is not a spilled glass of oil, this seems to be an out of control, good old-fashioned GUSHER.

When oil crews in Texas used to hit a gusher they would whoop and holler and then get to work to cap that well so as not to waste that precious "black gold".

It doesn't seem like anyone is in any hurry to stop this any time soon.

This is a sad state of affairs.

Tonight I heard talk of the relief wells and "if" it works it won't be until August. 120 days at thousands of gallons of oil per day.

You see the problem isn’t big enough yet.
The whole plan was the cap n trade plus the US introduction to the NWO.
The rig blows and the US tries and tries to fix the problem to no avail.
At this point the UN steps in to add their help, taking the moment to get their troops on the ground here.
From there we will have our new police and the cap n trade too.
It is a win win situation!