Odds 1-in-3 for Northwest Mega-Quake Within 50 Years

Odds 1-in-3 for Northwest Mega-Quake Within 50 Years

www.livescience.com

A major earthquake, similar to what devastated Chile and Haiti, has more than a one-in-three chance of striking the U.S. Pacific Northwest within the next 50 years, scientists say.

Earlier estimates put the chance of such quakes at just once every 500 years. But new analyses by Oregon State University marine geologist Chris Goldfinger and his colleagues have revealed a more complex picture of the Cascadia Subduction zone, where the ocean floor steadily slips below the North American Plate – and where the region's earthquakes originate.

(visit the link for the full news article)

The Cascadia Subduction zone has the potential to be one of the deadliest natural disasters to face North America. The scientists in this article clearly state that it is a matter of 'when, not 'if'.

Since we know this to be a fact, and since we know that there have been tsunami's that have hit from previous Cascadia quakes, my question is simple: Why don't all of you move?

I know the answer, it is human nature to not listen.

Did the people in Amytiville Horror listen when the ghost said, "Get out"? No...

Did everyone leave when the government said, "Get out" before Katrina made landfall? No...

Is anyone going to move away from the NW coast, even though they know that a massive earthquake and tsunami will wipe them out sometime in the next 50 years? Nope

Good luck to you, everyone in Korea, and everyone living along the gulf coast. I mean it, good luck!

www.livescience.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

The article also states:

'The last major earthquake to shake the Cascadia Subduction Zone took place in January of 1700. That event unleashed a 30-foot tsunami that struck Japan, and so scientists knew of the impact from historical records of the damage.'

That is fricking huge considering that Japan is on the other side of the world!

I also found this tidbit:

www.sciencedaily.com...

Earthquakes Along The Cascadia And San Andreas Faults May Be Linked, Affecting Risk To San Francisco Bay Region
ScienceDaily (Apr. 8, 2008) — Seismic activity on the southern Cascadia Subduction fault may have triggered major earthquakes along the northern San Andreas Fault, according to new research published by the Bulletin of Seismological Society of America (BSSA). The research refines the recurrence rate for the southern portion of the Cascadia fault to approximately every 220 years for the last 3000 years.

reply to post by lasertaglover



Most people rather play damage control rather than prevention. Human nature? Or just plain dumb nature? I say the latter.

I live in a rough city in the NE where the inhabitants are like wild animals but I'd rather deal with unruly humans than an angry mother nature. But that's just me.

reply to post by myeyeshavseen


I agree with you 100%. That is why I live in the Midwest. Mother Earth is Queen when it comes to my respect. Besides an occasional tornado, blizzard, or ice storm, we do pretty well here.

I live in Washington state because I was born here, it's my home, and I love it, even if it will destroy me. I would move to a safer place if it were financially possible, but where on this earth can one go hide and never have to deal with disasters? Midwest has tornadoes, they can be deadly. East coast will have the oil spill to deal with for God-only-knows how long. There is no escape from Mother Nature, we live on her..It isn't fair to call us stupid for where we live, we're aware of the dangers, but we have to make a life for ourselves somewhere..might as well be here, in my home state.

reply to post by silvermachine


I apologize if it seems like I was calling you stupid...my intent was to say that humans are stubborn.

If they said that there was a 100% chance of death and destruction tomorrow...would you still stay? Throughout our history, humanity has ignored warnings to leave an area that is dangerous.

How many people around the world live near an active volcano? They all say the same thing, "It is economically not possible for us to move away."

However, once the destruction happens, it really becomes economically not possible for the rest of us to pay the damages...like Katrina.

I lost a friend during Katrina because of his refusal to leave his home near a levy that broke during the storm. The media warned him, his family warned him, and I warned him. It sucks to have to pay the emotional bill that is due when someone else is too stubborn. It also sucks to have to pay the economic bill for the same reason.

Also, the issue with the gulf oil spill is different. They do not have a geological record of massive earthquakes every 300 years. We all knew the oil companies were greedy, but no one predicted something of this magnitude. We do not have a several thousand year timeline to learn from in regards to oil companies, but we sure as heck do have a very precise geological record.

The beauty of the coastline in Washinton, Oregon, British Columbia, and Northern California is stunning. I would hate for anyone to loose the gorgeous scenery that is there.

So enjoy it. But just remember that since you, and millions of other people are staying there, that it will be either me, or my kids that will pay the bill when the west coast is destroyed.

And last, there are a lot more 'safer' places to live. Sure, anywhere could get hit with an asteroid, but there are areas that are safer than others. It just takes time, effort, and research to figure out where it is safer to live.

When the scientists all say, "Get out" in regards to the West coast, it might be time to consider Ohio or Michigan!

If I knew with 100% accuracy that Mt. Baker would blow tomorrow, of course I would try to run like hell. But what about Yellowstone? It could go at any time and take most of North America with it. The Big One may happen in my lifetime, or not. That's the dilemma, there's no point running scared when we really don't know when this event will occur. I've thought long and hard about moving to the midwest, but I have no interest in being killed by a tornado, which are far more common than volcanic eruptions. The bottom line is that I know the risk involved in living here, I live below the poverty line, and I have had to come to grips with my fear of death by volcano and/or cataclysmic earthquake. I understand how survivors will suffer for the loss of the West coast, but considering all the possibilities, there's not a lot that anyone can do to escape any disasters that may strike. I'm currently way more afraid of nuclear holocaust/WWIII at the moment. It seems more likely to happen soon than the utter destruction of my home.