Gold/Silver Market Updates

Correction continues. It will be key to watch the near future. Will it keep falling , or will we bounce up again.
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Hi stephinrazin. Thanks for resuscitating your thread...diversification is always healthy

YouTuber BrotherJohnF drilled-down into the 1min chart to produce this little anatomy of yesterday's bear raid. I show Globex traded a total of 73683.00 contracts yesterday x 5000 = 3,684,150 ounces, so his volume data is skewed, but it's the familiar MO that's important to understand. And notice how it occured precisely in the foggy transition between pit close and Globex open. This latest theft was so "in your face" that most of our go-to bloggers were careening off the rails this morning.

Daylight robbery at the Comex has been practiced for years, a virtual 24hr crime scene...it's no secret. So unlike BrotherJohnF, I have very little confidence that our corrupted regulatory agencies will ever shoulder their chartered obligation to lobby on behalf of the victims. At best they're colluding through omission.

I really try to keep my focus on price and fundamentals > mind on my money, and my money on my mind. Ongoing emotional attachments to the comings and goings of cretins don't serve me very well across time. Still, I do need the occasional rant...so thanks for listening.

We've had a strong recovery off the morning lows...cleared a little overbought. If we can hold 40/1600 who knows, we may be good to go for a spell.

GL



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Gold could have completed a 5 wave move up from the late 2008 low...altho I would not be surprised to see it end in an extension to 1700-1800 and then a sharp reversal of at least $350. This would have been W3 with W1 the 1034 high (Mch 08). The W4 to follow here would likely break some up Trend Lines on "fundamental news" to justify profit taking. This should be followed by a bigger upmove after a simple ABC correction...if the high is in then we can look for a correction back to at least 1260....a retest of the Dec 2009 high of 1225~ would not surpise me (then a move to 2050 or so....higher if a real crisis unfolds).

There will be a metals exchange in china in a year or 2 and that should blow the comex right out of the water.

Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange to launch silver futures on July 22

Monday July 18

(Reuters) - The Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange (HKMEx) said on Monday it will start trading a dollar-denominated silver futures contract on July 22, hoping to tap into the growing demand for the metal in China.

The silver contract will trade in lots of 1,000 troy ounces and be delivered in Hong Kong, the exchange said in a statement. - Full Text

A lot of anticipation over the new HK Silver contract. After reading a little about the honcho, I'm hoping folks won't be disappointed. Not only is Mr Helmig an American, he's also a former CME/NYMEX executive with ties to the Wall St industrialists. I swear, Putin could open a commodities exchange in Siberia and these clowns would pop-up.

GL

Emphasis mine.

Mr Albert HELMIG

Mr Albert Helmig is an Executive Director and President of the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange. He leads the day-to-day operation of the Exchange. Together with an international pool of talented professionals, he works to build China’s global marketplace in one of the region’s most prominent financial hubs, Hong Kong.

Mr Helmig is the third generation of his family to work in the commodities trading industry. He has more than 35 years of commodities experience on Wall Street and as a commodities merchant spanning both physical commodities and financial instruments on a global basis. He is a former Vice Chairman of the New York Mercantile Exchange, and he served on the Board of Directors and the Executive Committee for 10 years and was Chairman or Vice Chairman of over 20 committees.

Mr Helmig was Founder and Chief Executive of Grey House LLC, a private consulting firm on risk management, price models and industry best practices to clients such as financial institutions, producers, integrated energy companies, government agencies and ministries, think tanks and law firms. He is a frequent contributor at industry forums and to the media. He serves on the Advisory Board of Energy Intelligence Group as well as other corporate boards.

Mr Helmig holds degrees in Finance and Economics from Philadelphia University. - Link

Manipulation of these markets makes an amateur like me unable to correctly see trends.

I look at the last couple days, and I think the POS could go either way.
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I look at a bigger time frame, and I see 40ish being a resistance area.
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Part of my mind says we are due for a pullback, and another part wonders are these real market trends.
I sold out above 40 expecting a pull back, and then a future continuation up.

Are these corrections real? From 11:40-11:45 today the POS fell 40 cents. One percent drop in five minutes seems pretty significant. Is this a natural price fluctuation?

A couple of immediate-term headwinds for precious metals...round number-itis, and Gold options expiry next week. As is customary, options writers will try their damndest to push Gold below the critical 1600 mark by 1:30pm ET Tuesday of next. Looks like sellers are meeting firm resistance from the buy side, but currently neither team has really claimed the upper hand. Regardless, these tug-o-wars are fun to watch.

DJ Metals Calendar

GL

Interesting drop in gold.
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Silver dropped at the exact same time.(green)
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Interesting somebody apparently made a big short move in pms.

reply to post by stephinrazin


THEY ARE ACTUALLY WEIGHTING IT AGAINST THE DOLLAR. GOLD AND SILVER ARE ACTING LIKE "ACTUAL" CURRENCIES RIGHT NOW. OFCOURSE GOLD AND SILVER IS MONEY BUT COMPARED TO THE US DOLLAR THEY ARE NOW KEYING OFF IT AND FALLING IN RESPONSE TO DOLLAR STRENGTH.

Gold and Silver Resume Uptrend in Risk-Off Trading

Gold (XAU/USD)

The market is staying above the 1608 pivot (high from last week), and showing bullish continuation as the RSI in the daily chart breaks back above 70.

A break below 1608 needed in upcoming sessions if the rally is to be stalled.

As we near the deadline for the debt ceiling, uncertainty is fueling safe haven like the CHF and gold.

A range breakout projection targets 1670; A swing projection targets 1725.
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Silver (XAG/USD)

Silver also broke above last week’s high and is continuation a bullish run in the short-term, although we are still within the context of consolidation.

In this respect, the market is in consolidation with a bullish bias in the medium- term. In the short-term it is bullish.

In the context of consolidation, the 43.00 and 45.85 are respectively 61.8% and 78.6%.

With gold leading the way, silver also has a chance to reach 48.85 high.
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Link

I expect a fall in precious metals. I got out of silver a bit early, but I feel next week will show a pull back. Congress will "magially" solve the debt ceiling. The markets will pass the bottle of fiat money around once again. The markets will get good and wasted. The dollar will rebound, and maybe even look better than the Euro(for now).

This will further the long term argument for PMs. In the short term, it will provide a buying opportunity. If silver breaches 38 I am going to move in. Gold I might just ride because it is less volatile. These are just my humble thoughts. I don't know though. If I knew what the markets always were going I would be on my yacht somewhere.

Silver

Silver is trading bearishly, which is normal after breaching the bullish support shown in blue on the chart above; this level supported Silver and carried trading from the bottom of 33.15 reaching the top of 41.44. Stability below 40.40 supports the downside trend, while a breach of 23.6% Fibonacci correction could push silver to retest 38.2% Fibonacci correction at 38.25. Dear reader, we recommend reviewing our previous reports for more details that detail our negative expectations.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 37.30 and key resistance now at 41.20.

The short-term trend is to the downside targeting 26.65 as far as areas of 48.50 remain intact with weekly closing.

Support: 39.50, 39.20, 38.70, 38.25, 37.95
Resistance: 39.75, 40.00, 40.20, 40.40, 40.90

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend buying silver around 39.75 and take profits in stages at 38.70 and 38.25 and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 40.40 might be appropriate
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Gold

The long lower wick of yesterday's candlestick is another positive indication that the buying pressures remain strong above the psychological level of 1600.00. Additionally, we can see the positive closing above the pivotal level of 1609.00. In the interim, Vortex is still definitely positive; thus, the CD leg of the harmonic Deep Crab pattern may continue; particularly if the pair succeeded in penetrating the resistance of 1627.00-1628.00. Note that, areas of 1585.00 should hold with a daily closing to keep our positive outlook valid.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1574.00 and key resistance now at 1645.00.

The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside targeting 1694.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1430.00 remain intact with weekly closing.

Support: 1609.00, 1600.00, 1595.00, 1585.00, 1574.00
Resistance: 1620.00, 1627.00, 1632.00, 1635.00, 1642.00

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying gold around 1609.00 targeting 1645.00 and stop loss below 1585.00 might be appropriate.
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Oil and Gold

Here are some radio shows about the debt, and PMS.

Follow the Money Radio show

King News Weekly Metal Wrap Up

Marc Faber (Tue)

Articles

Top 10 Gold Holding Nations

Gold Faces Short-Term Price Trap

Deman for Bullion at Full Pitch

Options and SLV

nobody knows when gold price will decrease ?

A good detailed look at all commodities.
Standard Bank Report

Well the markets are crazy today.
Silver got F**.
Proper F**d.
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The silver ETF had huge volume. 85million versus a 35 million avg. Some big players are crashing silver again.

They are crashing again today - what is going on?