Election 2008's Biggest Secret...

I know this is just an anecdotal story and not nearly as scientific as all the MSM polls being shown everyday, but I just discovered something truly dumbfounding.

I was visiting with a friend here in Pennsylvania for his father's birthday. His father began talking about the election, and what his "poker buddies" are saying.

These are about a dozen guys between 55-70 who are life long Democrats. They have always voted Democrat, even when Reagan was running.

Out of the dozen life-long Democrats, know how many are voting for Obama?

Zero.

They all are voting for McCain, and are even more comfortable voting for McCain now with Gov. Palin on the ticket. Why? Because her husband is a blue collar worker and she stood up to the Republicans. Why not Obama? Simple. They don't like him and they think his speeches are nothing but B.S.

So if McCain is going to have 12 middle class white men vote for him who have never voted for a Republican in thier lives, what do you think that's going to mean for Obama?

Obama is probably going to lose Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. The demographics that got him the Democratic nomination are not nearly enough to overcome the fact that he is going to get beaten like a rented mule among middle-class white males. Obama might even lose Minnesota and Wisconsin too.

This is the best kept secret of the 2008 election. Obama is going to have almost ZERO support among Democratic, middle-class, white males -and he stands no chance to win without it. That's why he picked Biden -to hope to get some of this vote.

I'll predict right now that McCain wins with over 300 electoral college votes.

I guess that means Obama should pack up and leave, then.

My Dad is a life long Democrat, and many of his friends are as well, and they have made it quite clear that they aren't voting for Bush. So, my anecdotal prediction is the complete opposite of yours.

[edit on 31-8-2008 by davion]

reply to post by jamie83


I don't think its even a question that Obama is going to get clobbered when it comes to blue collar and working class voters. Zogby issued a poll yesterday of the presidential race, and one of the questions was aimed at those who routinely shopped at Walmart. 62% supported McCain. Only 24% supported Obama.

You can find that poll here.

(Never mind about this, poll, BTW; I just noticed that it is an online poll and the results are certainly questionable).

I have seen very little support for Obama in my typically conservative, blue-collar, but (oddly) Dem voting community. This was also Hillary territory, FWIW.

[edit on 31-8-2008 by vor78]

reply to post by jamie83


The best kept secret of this election is that 12 old dudes in Pennsylvania are going to be voting for McCain? We really are a nation in decline--even our Top Secrets are getting lame!

Seriously, sport, I appreciate that you think you're bringing some kind of shocking new insight to the table, but Obama's lack of appeal to white, middle class, blue collar, white, hard workin', white, salt of the earth, white white white American (white) voters isn't new. It's been the number one concern of party insiders from day one.

Originally posted by davion
I guess that means Obama should pack up and leave, then.

My Dad is a life long Democrat, and many of his friends are as well, and they have made it quite clear that they aren't voting for Bush. So, my anecdotal prediction is the complete opposite of yours.

[edit on 31-8-2008 by davion]

Maybe you should tell your dad and his friends that Bush isn't running.

And of course there will still be life-long Democrats that do not vote for McCain. That's not the point.

The point is that Kerry only won PA, MI, and MN by 3% in 2004, and only won WI by 1%. It's not going to take 100% of the Democrats to vote for McCain. It's only going to take about 2-3% of the Democrats to vote for McCain in order to give McCain a victory on Nov. 4.

I'm guessing it's going to be more like 10-20% of the Democrats are going to vote for McCain, and by 9:00 pm on Nov. 4 the MSM will be speculating about how much of an impact Hillary backers had on giving McCain the win.

BTW, what state are you in?

Vote McCain is the message of this thread? Does this not somehow violate terms of use? I am too lazy to look myself, but this "Vote McCain!" thread could easily be on Fox News.

Originally posted by Leo Loeb

Seriously, sport, I appreciate that you think you're bringing some kind of shocking new insight to the table, but Obama's lack of appeal to white, middle class, blue collar, white, hard workin', white, salt of the earth, white white white American (white) voters isn't new. It's been the number one concern of party insiders from day one.

I don't think you get it.

We're not talking about Reagan Democrats here. We're talking about the die hard union Democrats that hated and derided Reagan and anything to do with Republicans.

And the fact that they're white isn't the point. Implying their preference is based on racial prejudice is just a convenient excuse and an attempt to imply that there must be something wrong with the voters who vote for McCain over Obama.

No, they are going to vote for McCain because they really dislike Obama, and how he looks down on them.

Obama is in deep trouble here in PA. I'm guessing it's the same in OH, MI, MN, and WI too.

I can already imagine the MSM spin when Obama loses.

1. Obama broke new ground.
2. Obama lost because Hillary supporters voted for McCain.
3. Obama lost because white America isn't ready for a black POTUS.
4. McCain is 72 and Obama will be ready to run again in 2012.

Originally posted by davion
I guess that means Obama should pack up and leave, then.

My Dad is a life long Democrat, and many of his friends are as well, and they have made it quite clear that they aren't voting for Bush. So, my anecdotal prediction is the complete opposite of yours.

[edit on 31-8-2008 by davion]

That's not really all that surprising. There aren't any females of any ethnicity voting for bush, no males of any ethnicity either. As a matter of fact, I predict that Bush will not get one single vote in this election. I'm sure you've figured out why by now

Seriously though, I honestly think Obama peaked too early. He used his "change" speeches too far in advance of the election, and now he cannot answer to exactly how he will make these changes work, or what they really entail. He's an excellent motivator, but motivation can only last so long, eventually one start asking where the payoff is.

Originally posted by bronco73

Seriously though, I honestly think Obama peaked too early. He used his "change" speeches too far in advance of the election, and now he cannot answer to exactly how he will make these changes work, or what they really entail. He's an excellent motivator, but motivation can only last so long, eventually one start asking where the payoff is.

Exactly right.

Plus, he owned the word "change" and then went and picked Biden as the VP candidate. Biden is the opposite of "change."

This left the opening for McCain to pick Gov. Palin, who is a legitimate Washington outsider and who represents the EXACT change Obama has been talking about.

Obama talked the talked, but McCain is the one who took action.

reply to post by pluckynoonez


It was an anecdotal story and not much else. I didn't see an appeal to vote for the guy anywhere. This isn't the first time I think you've intentionally tried to throw a McCain thread off course either.

To OP:
I've noticed about the same among swing voters here. But it being the South and the two I'm speaking of being fairly old I don't know if they have some sort of prejudice or not. If they had mentioned a particular issue I wouldn't think much of it, but since it was the typical "style over substance" story I think twice.

*edit* PA and OH I believe you are right about. But I'm not positive about Michigan and Minnesota. MN voted democrat at least 7 elections in a row and cities like Flint and Detroit are supposed to be in a recession and from what I've heard doesn't fair well for the incumbent party historically.


[edit on 1-9-2008 by beaverg]

Originally posted by jamie83
Maybe you should tell your dad and his friends that Bush isn't running.

And of course there will still be life-long Democrats that do not vote for McCain. That's not the point.

BTW, what state are you in?

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

Florida.

My Dad was also one of the union representatives for the Rock Island Railroad back when that line was still functioning and was a union member.

I think that racism is far more powerful force in our society than most will admit (or realize).

I live in an upper middle class area, and my friends and family do as well, and when I watch television or listen to the radio I mostly see a reflection of what educated, modern people think and feel. But in my job, I travel to all areas of a large urban community, and I speak to many people who are not able to afford to live as I do. What I notice is that what is projected as being politically correct, or even normal in this country, is far from representative of the attitudes of the general population.

Frankly, I do not think an (even nominally) black man can win a national election. I do not think a woman could win, either.

Interestingly, I think that McCain has potentially made the most progressive choice in presidential election history, because he will win and then the population will have the opportunity to get to know the person Sarah Palin and perhaps eventually trust her enough to elect her at the top of a future ticket.

The other big secret is that a large percentage of Obama supporters just wont vote. I remember in 2004 when I was the only one in my group of friends supporting Bush. Every night at the bar consisted of me defending my choice. When it finally came time for the election, I stood in the rain for an hour to vote. My friends on the other hand, chose to stay home and smoke pot.

I kid you not, not a single one of them voted.