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It will come in a form that is appealing. It will come in ways that will convince Americans to give up their freedoms. The rights we have cherished for 232 years will be thrown out in favor of "new rights." What is a little thing like Freedom of Speech, the right to vote for your leaders, freedom of the press, etc, when you are being offered a free college education, free health-care, guaranteed jobs, housing, etc. The more the government gives us, the more control they will demand over our lives; and we will agree to it.
Predictors of a recession
There are no totally reliable predictors. However these are regarded to be possible predictors.[2]
* Stock market drops have preceded the beginning of recessions. However about half of the drops of 10% or more since 1946 have not resulted in recessions.[3] Also, approximately half of the stock market decline came after the beginning of recessions.
* Inverted yield curve,[4] the model developed by Fed economist Jonathan Wright, uses yields on 10-year and three-month Treasury securities as well as the Fed's overnight funds rate. Another model developed by Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists use only the 10-year/three-month spread. It is however not a definite indicator,[5] it is sometimes followed by a recession 6 to 18 months later.
* The three-month change in the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims.[6]
* Onset of a housing recession.[7]
* Index of Leading (Economic) Indicators (includes some of the above indicators).[8]
* Frequency of the word "recession" in New York Times and Wall Street Journal.[9]
What is a little thing like Freedom of Speech, the right to vote for your leaders, freedom of the press, etc, when you are being offered a free college education, free health-care, guaranteed jobs, housing, etc.