Look at the military strength of U.S.-backed Colombia compared to Ecuador and Venezuela

Colombia has been battling left-wing insurgents for more than four decades and enjoys close U.S. logistical and intelligence support. Venezuela's military lacks combat experience but its air force has superior technology. Ecuador fought a month long border war with Peru in 1995.

COLOMBIA (includes army, navy, air force)

Regular troops: 254,300
Reservists: 61,900
National Police: 136,000 (many combat-trained and equipped).

Hardware: 115 combat-capable aircraft, including 22 ground-attack fighters, among them Mirages and Kfirs. Four surface combat ships

Defense budget in 2007: $5.1 billion

ECUADOR (includes army, navy, air force)

Regular troops: 57,100
Reservists: 118,000.

Hardware: 57 combat-capable aircraft including 31 fighters, among them Mirages and Kfirs. Eight surface combat ships.

Defense budget in 2007: $918 million

VENEZUELA (includes army, navy, air force, national huard):

Regular troops: 115,000
Reservists: 280,000 (estimated, fighting capability unknown)

Hardware: 94 combat-capable aircraft including 68 fighter jets including Sukhois, F-16s and Mirages. Recent military purchases include 53 helicopters, two dozen SU-30 Sukhoi fighter jets and 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles. Six surface combat ships.

Defense budget in 2007: $2.56 billion

Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies, AP

Cool thread, just some quick additions:

Colombia's army is considered very well trained, and they have a great deal of experience with counter-insurgency ops. On the other hand, they are not really trained or equipped for the kind of traditional warfare the Venezuelans are.

They have very little armor, some IFV's and armored cars apparently.
They have an experienced & well trained rotary-wing force.

In contrast, the Venezuelans have a considerable mechanized force, with 80+ AMX-30 MBT's and several varieties of IFV's and APC's.

They also have a vastly superior Navy, based around six modern, fast, and heavily armed Italian-made Lupo class frigates. These are easily among the best ships in the region.

They also have two German built Type 209 submarines and some missile and gun armed fast attack boats. They have ordered some Kilo class subs from the Russians, but as far as I know the deal is not yet completed.

The Colombian Navy consists mainly of four German built light frigates, which are inferior to the Lupos, and some patrol gunboats, including an interesting new stealth gunboat I haven't been able to get much information on.

They also operate two Type 209 subs, and two UK-built midget subs.

PS: they also operate a really beautiful sailing vessel as a school ship, ARC Gloria, which I have had the good fortune to see in person.

[edit on 3/6/08 by xmotex]

And whats most important in warfare: Oil and gasoline supply.

No engine run without fuel, and that Venezuela has plenty.

Looks like you're going to have to update your figures. It seems Nicaragua has now severed diplomatic ties with Colombia as well. Things are definitely heating up.

news.bbc.co.uk...

I think several of the local countries are likely to come to Chavez's side in this - not out of enthusiasm for FARC or even Chavez, but to discourage US military involvement in the crisis.

It's one thing for the US to back Colombia up against Chavez - but against three or four local countries, with heavyweight Brazil on the sidelines?

It would get very sticky indeed.

I think there is a lot of fear among the new left-leaning leadership in most of South America that the United States would like to overturn their victories at the ballot box by using military force.

Given the US's history in the region, and the current administration's ideology and approach, I would say it is not an unreasonable fear.

The real figures one would need to look at would be America's military strength, because I believe America would intervene on behalf of Colombia should a conflict erupt.

It seems very fortuitous for George and Dick's oil industry buddies that the other area of the world besides the ME (They have that area pretty well jacked up) that supplies any significant amount of oil - Venezuela - has now creeped deeper into turmoil with this latest South American drama. Is it any wonder oil closed at $105 today? I wonder what the 2008 oil company profits will be as it happens to coincide with the end of Bush's term. One last "Hurrah!" I'm sure.

Let's not forget that the CIA,. the Bushies and the Clintons have long been linkedor suspected of being involved in drug trafficking out of Columbia and other Central and South American countries.

Originally posted by xmotex
I think several of the local countries are likely to come to Chavez's side in this - not out of enthusiasm for FARC or even Chavez, but to discourage US military involvement in the crisis.

It's one thing for the US to back Colombia up against Chavez - but against three or four local countries, with heavyweight Brazil on the sidelines?

It would get very sticky indeed.

I think there is a lot of fear among the new left-leaning leadership in most of South America that the United States would like to overturn their victories at the ballot box by using military force.

Given the US's history in the region, and the current administration's ideology and approach, I would say it is not an unreasonable fear.

Exactly,Xmotex I wonder if King "W" has already sent in the wetboys?

Well, there appears to be a ray of hope. (If I may pimp my own news item )

Apparently Ecuador's army has captured a group of FARC guerrillas operating within their territory. This may be Ecuador offering Colombia an olive branch and a face-saving way out of the crisis.

This is good, South America has enough problems without an unnecessary and costly war added to the mix.

The problem that Chavez has is if he attacks and the US helps Colombia, Chavez will lose a lot of his military hardware to US pilots. It wouldn't take much US involvement to soften up Chavez'z military.

The problem we have is Venezula may cutoff oil imports to the US and the start of any conflict would spike oil to very high levels. Plan on riding your bikes to work or taking the bus because gas will be too expensive and inflation would plunge us into a real depression.

The US is not going to get involved overtly, period.

The American people are sick and tired of getting involved in foreign wars right now, and politically, engaging Venezuela is just not doable. It won't happen.

Secondly, it wouldn't just be Venezuela we'd end up fighting, it would be Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua... with a good chance that many other countries would come in on the Venezuelan side. It would be seen as a US war against left-leaning democracies in the region - which at this moment is just about every country on the South American continent.

Not a winning proposition....