Hold on, I'm confused

I seem to be hearing different things.

Has the virus already mutated so it can transfer human to human or not?

I read an article in a paper which wasn't very clear. I think it said something like the virus had mutated, but not to the stage where it's transferable.

Can someone please clear it up for me?

Originally posted by mashup
I seem to be hearing different things.

Has the virus already mutated so it can transfer human to human or not?

I read an article in a paper which wasn't very clear. I think it said something like the virus had mutated, but not to the stage where it's transferable.

Can someone please clear it up for me?

There are no confirmed casses of wide spread human to human transfer. However, there have been suspected ISOLATED, casses of human to human in Vietnam.

The fact that they were isolated says the virus isn't yet able to easily transfer human to human and it was only suspected casses. Nothing confirmed.

The virus will almost definitely mutate into human-to-human now that it is so widespread in livestock. The real mystery is how much of the deadly strain will remain in the new mutated the form (that is, it could mutate into human to human but become more like a regular flu and less like the deadly strain killing all these birds).

Hope this helps,

Cayoo

mashup
Genetic/RNA mutations are hard enough to understand for the knowledgeable! However from the information available, certainly H5N1 has mutated, but still as a "bird flu". That is it has changed/mutated, that is there are different strains/varieties now in circulation that are different from the first H5N1 virus found/studied.

It though has not (well it might of but hasn’t been reported yet... there could be a "Bird Flu Mary" now coughing somewhere who had a "human" flu and then got infected with "bird flu" at the same time(ish) and now they have merged/mutated into a easily communicable strain between humans!!(however she could have just bird flu (from direct contact with infected poultry/source) which has mutated within her without the human flu present(though less likely statistically therefore time on our hands!) maybe we will hear on the news three days time lol...

It is changing some think now that the cases of human infection are MUCH MUCH higher than has been reported, that some human to human transmission may be happening, but that the mortality and infection ability is lower than thought/expected and we are only aware of the most extreme cases...(this if true could be very good indeed for the risk of H5N1 to create the feared global pandemic)

What worries me Is that now with H5N1 known to be on the east Mediterranean border in turkey that it is probably now in next door Iran and therefore Arabia but more worryingly very close to Africa.

Now with the Massive Pandemic of HIV / Aids, low levels of sanitation, low levels of health care and a already malnourished population.... with the lifestyle of people with nature there.... well it is the PERFECT and most likely place to spark a very Deadly and infectious mutation.... a child malnourished with HIV and a Flu virus already due to these factors....eating grass (THIS IS HAPPENING NOW IN SUDAN ETC) for food... with some bird droppings on their from an infected bird... or direct contact for food... well its a very very likely scenario IMHumbleOpinion...

Hope this helps you out and provides some angles for your thoughts!

Regards

Elf

Some links for your perusal

World Health Organisation

and a good link for collated bird flu news and resources

Avian Flu - What we need to Know

ElfEdit Spelling and Grammah

[edit on 15-1-2006 by MischeviousElf]

So basically, the jist of what you're both saying is that it's starting to mutate and deffinately will mutate?

I'll get my shotgun and knives ready for when society collapses.

Lol

well it will mutate but might not mutate into a human flu for many generations, the flu strains within the human population mutate or we wouldnt catch it due to prior exposure to it by the immune system.

Most and Certainly the 1914 human flu Pandemic came from birds originally, this is how this has passed onto us before. Even seemingly very old strains in the human population came originally from birds....and as specualtion and evidense that birds originally came from dinousaurs and therefore were here before humans, and therefore is how Humans (early man/hominid/chimp etc) first caught flu.

However as said the next pandemic could come from a mutation in a current human strain, ie higher lethality...

It really is a case of when and not if with Flu pandemics.... they have always occured regularly and until a cure allways will, and from previous historical records etc and their timing frequency we are well overdue for one. The way that H5N1 is acting though makes it seem more and more likely to be the source of the next human pandemic.

Human memory of these things is short lived and to be honest Im surprised it hasnt happened already. Though it could be 10 or 20 years though I doubt it.... This is something most of this generation I feel will either live through or not, as has always happened in the past.

On a lighter note forget the shotgun... Get yourself lots and lots and lots of cats , Food and water for 3-6 months, a remote location, and a nice Orange tree in the Garden!

Regards

Elf

Originally posted by mashup
So basically, the jist of what you're both saying is that it's starting to mutate and deffinately will mutate?

I'll get my shotgun and knives ready for when society collapses.

All flu's mutate. This flu will mutate. The one thing we don't know is how it will mutate.

If it mutates and keeps most of it's orgininal characteristics except that it could now go human to human, we will probably have a big problem on our hands.

If it mutates and takes on more of the characteristics of a normal human to human flu like you get all the time, then you probably won't even notice much even if it spreads like wild fire. More people might get the flu, but mortality rates should be more in line with regular flu's.


Cayoo

Thankfully my parents are sending me off to boarding school in the middle of no where next school year.

So, be it nuclear war or bird flu I'll be safe.



Also, I keep hearing reports of the predicted death toll. Some say as high as 50million while others say as low as 50000.

Viruses ALWAYS mutate it is what they do to survive. It takes a variety of factors and time for a specific strain to mutate...We will have to wait and see when it changes drastically and begins to fully infect humans.

O yeh, I remember from biology class that that's why we can't develop immunity to colds and flus.

An anti-biotic will be too late to fight off a virus.

That's how AIDS/HIV works isn't it?
The virus is continually changing itself isn't it?

so if and when it 'mute'ates - how long ya reckon before we will 'hear about it'??

I am suprised you people know so incredibly little about the subject, HIV/AIDs does not continually mutate, it destroys your immune system and nobody actually ever dies from AIDs or HIV. Theres also a lot of other stuff you have very wrong and a huge amount of paranoia - I'm far to lazy to point it out in full, thats my downfall unfortunately. There are far too many humans on the planet anyway, we could do with getting rid of a few.

Ciao! Love me!

AIDS doesn't mutate? The World Health Organization says it does. H5N1 has already mutated. There are now at least four different strains of it. You people should go to and read the news links listed here on the right side of the H5N1 page. Also, sites like Yahoo News has Bird Flu News Full Coverage.. There are a lot of websites out there that have bird flu news and discussion. My blog, The Tao of Politics has a regular feature on bird flu, as well as on other issues.