The tory wheels start to come off.....

Yesterday saw the first private admissions (from within the tory party) that the British conservative party are heading for their 3rd heavy defeat in the general election in 2 wks time.
Even tories are now starting to question whether maybe Howard & Co's appeal to the worst British 'Alf Garnet' (Archie Bunker in the USA) instincts was a good idea and whether a major change of campaign direction is needed to avoid disaster (according to the BBC's Andrew Neil, Daily Politics show, Wed 20/04).

It's all a lot like William Hague's disasterously losing 2001 campaign.
That started off as the great 'save the pound' election only for the tories to have to - rather embarrasingly - change tack half way through as even they realised that this was not the great public concern they all imagined it to be.

This likelihood continues to be backed up by the public poll which continue to show a significant gap (in some polls widening) between Labour and the tories.
Even the 'YouGov' poll in the Daily Torygraph (a poll skewed by the manner in which it is conducted which boosts tory support) has Labour significantly leading.
Ditto 'The Times' and their weird 'definitely going to vote' poll (which again has consistently been at odds with almost every other poll, boosting tory support); this too continues to show a consistent Labour lead.
It appears the tories private polls are saying the same thing.

Hence yesterday and todays 'say absolutely anything to attempt to get elected/not wiped out'.

First, yesterday, they claimed they'd drop the plans for the coming Council Tax property revaluation in England (something which will surely damage their position in Wales and Scotland which have recently had theirs).
Considering that it was the tories who invented the Council Tax, along with the requirement for regular property revaluation, and that they had been all for it only a month ago......

.....and today are all for (apparantly) no stamp duty on property sales up to £0.25 million (way to assist London and the SE of England guys.......and p right off the rest of the country) it seems they're prepared to sacrifice all credibility in this election.

What next abolish all income taxes and claim they'll boost funding for the public services by 100%?
Credible?
I think not.

(Current) STAMP DUTY FOR UK HOMES
Up to £120,000 - nil
£120,001 to £250,000 - 1%
£250,001 to £500,000 - 3%
More than £500,000 - 4%

Thankfully there is less than 2wks of this nonsense left untill they (and we) are all put out of our misery and we can go back to having this stable competent Labour gov.

(BTW did anyone catch the poll showing that if Gordon Brown was in charge the Labour majority would be likely to be over 250?
news.independent.co.uk...
*ssssshhhhh, keeping that powder dry for 2009/10*
If the polls are right now that will be another general election which, thanks to our 'First past the post' electoral system, will mean the tories need another record swing to even achieve a hung Paliament.

(I wonder how long it'll be till the tory supporters of PR emerge?)



[edit on 21-4-2005 by sminkeypinkey]

I think the Conservatives main problems for this election are:

1. The past, people remember.
2. Their policy is mainly based around, Immigration, Crime, Tax, with very little thought to the other policys.
3. Their led by a creature of the night

Originally posted by UK Wizard
I think the Conservatives main problems for this election are:

1. The past, people remember.

- I agree that is a major part of it Wizard but it isn't just that.
It's their utter refusal to make any meaningful change and to be seen to be refusing to make any meaningful change.

Take this election campaign.

It's almost as if they agreed they couldn't run on Europe this time so what do they do?
Revisit another old tory theme and go nuts on immigration - as if anyone in their right mind decides the colour of the countries' gov on the basis of that issue almost alone anyway.

Talk about remind people they are much the same as before.

2. Their policy is mainly based around, Immigration, Crime, Tax, with very little thought to the other policys.

- Absolutely.
Where are the tory spokesmen on even the issues the tories have, traditionally, some public credibility? If only to illustrate this is not a one or two issue campaign.
Where is their defence spokesman (defence traditionally being a subject they go large on).
Where is their trade and industry spokesman (if they ever want to rescue their image on the economy they surely need to start repairing some of the damege there, right?)

I think this is possibly the most inept tory campaugn I've ever seen (and believe me 2001 was incredibly bad).

No wonder 'The Sun' came out 2wks before the election date for Labour.
(I honestly think it's begining to dawn on almost everybody that this is going to go really badly for Howard. Watch for signs of outright panic after this weekend's polls and into the 2nd half of next week; I doubt it'll be pretty.)

3. Their led by a creature of the night

- ......and therein lies their biggest problem.
How do you convince anyone you've really changed when they put Howard up as a leader and he nags on and on about immigration, tax cuts and ever harsher 'law and order'?

If the polls are correct then that means whoever takes over from Howard is most likely looking to lose the next election (because 'first past the post' indicates they'll be needing yet another - very unlikely - all-time record swing to them) and Gordon Brown is set to be the popular choice (in and outside of the Labour party) to become leader when Blair steps down.

Who would want to do that?
(.....and I suspect many tories will be leaving politics after this Parliament having had their fill of opposition.

One might say that Labour lost 4 elections in a row between 1979 and 1997; which is of course absolutely true; but the point there was that Labour each time Labour lost they improved in their losing position, that is something that just doesn't appear to be happening in any significant way for the tory party).

Sorry, posted twice by accident...

[edit on 24/4/2005 by GavinAyling]

I think the Conservatives main problems for this election are:

1. The past, people remember.

- I agree that is a major part of it Wizard but it isn't just that.
It's their utter refusal to make any meaningful change and to be seen to be refusing to make any meaningful change.

Take this election campaign.

It's almost as if they agreed they couldn't run on Europe this time so what do they do?
Revisit another old tory theme and go nuts on immigration - as if anyone in their right mind decides the colour of the countries' gov on the basis of that issue almost alone anyway.

Talk about remind people they are much the same as before.

A party should not change its ideology (except over the long-term), in order to win votes. The Conservative party has a proud history of good management of the public purse of which they can be proud. Unfortunately, the media seems to be reinforcing the diatribe that Blair is spouting about the Thatcher years and people seem to be buying it.
Immigration is a major issue especially to those that live in the town and do not like the fact that some immigrants do not attempt to adopt England as their home in a proper sense. I know this sounds a little "poor old chap" but let me clarify:
Some immigrant communites are making demands/complaining about things that are patently part of English culture (I cite snowmen on public property being 'racist', school girls taking her school to the ECHR for not allowing her to wear what she likes to school and etc.)
Some immigrants do not allow their wives to learn English in order that they be controllable.

What needs to be done is to limit immigration so that those that are settling here are given sufficient time and space to acclimatise and not ghettoise. However, as you rightly say, immigration is not the only Tory strong-point...

2. Their policy is mainly based around, Immigration, Crime, Tax, with very little thought to the other policys.

- Absolutely.
Where are the tory spokesmen on even the issues the tories have, traditionally, some public credibility? If only to illustrate this is not a one or two issue campaign.
Where is their defence spokesman (defence traditionally being a subject they go large on).

The defense policy has concentrated on Scotland where there have been promises to reinstate the regiments etc. There have been policy statements on reducing spending on technology where it is done at the detriment of numbers in the extreme. If you have not noticed these policy statements then maybe it is the media which needs to be encouraged to provide more rounded coverage?

Where is their trade and industry spokesman (if they ever want to rescue their image on the economy they surely need to start repairing some of the damege there, right?)

I agree on this point. I am hoping that there will be more dismantling of Labour's economic lies in the next 11 days.

I think this is possibly the most inept tory campaugn I've ever seen (and believe me 2001 was incredibly bad).

Now that's entirely unfair. The professional methodology of this election has been accepted by many. The only thing that does not appear to be going right are the polls!

No wonder 'The Sun' came out 2wks before the election date for Labour.
(I honestly think it's begining to dawn on almost everybody that this is going to go really badly for Howard. Watch for signs of outright panic after this weekend's polls and into the 2nd half of next week; I doubt it'll be pretty.)

Unfortunately the Sun has lost its way of late, but of course it only chooses sides based on which party it thinks is going to win...

- ......and therein lies their biggest problem.
How do you convince anyone you've really changed when they put Howard up as a leader and he nags on and on about immigration, tax cuts and ever harsher 'law and order'?

Why would the Tories want to appear as if they have changed in these issues? Tax is too high, law and order is out of control (whether Panorama thinks so or not - we have disproportionate crime levels and this needs to change) and I have covered (partially) immigration.

If the polls are correct then that means whoever takes over from Howard is most likely looking to lose the next election (because 'first past the post' indicates they'll be needing yet another - very unlikely - all-time record swing to them) and Gordon Brown is set to be the popular choice (in and outside of the Labour party) to become leader when Blair steps down.

Maybe I am being overly optimistic, but I think you'll find it will not be a landslide par se. Brown is popular among the populace because, and only because, he is an untested entity. He has badly mismanaged the economy which has done well despite him and his only endearing characteristic is his views on Europe that will badly split the Labour Party.

Who would want to do that?
(.....and I suspect many tories will be leaving politics after this Parliament having had their fill of opposition.

The Tories have the largest membership of any party and they are getting more and more tired of Labour. Before long this government will be replaced - it has to, really, for the democracy to remain healthy.

One might say that Labour lost 4 elections in a row between 1979 and 1997; which is of course absolutely true; but the point there was that Labour each time Labour lost they improved in their losing position, that is something that just doesn't appear to be happening in any significant way for the tory party).

Your assessment of what is significant is largely different to mine. The 'landslide' as the "unbiased" media named it in 1997 was a swing of 10% and the 2001 election was a reversal by just over 1%. We have not yet had this election, but I predict a larger swing than that this time (maybe even a hung parliament - said with optimistically coloured glasses, admittedly).

However, the largest obstacle to power for the better party remains the leader. Unfortunately, despite his excellent campaign, Howard still does not endear to the electorate - maybe because of Ann Widdecombes' stupid-with-hindsight comments. The solution is a charesmatic leader (unfortunately). With this in mind, I think we need reform of our head-of-state system away from a Prime Minister who notionally acts on the Queen's behalf and towards a head-of-state who is directly elected so that House elections can be about the issues and the MPs.

Gavin Ayling
www.gavpolitics.co.uk...

I admire your optimism Gavin but I do not agree with your assessments and opinons.

But hey, unlike the fairy-tales some of the more loopy tory element would once have had us believe despite 8yrs of Labour gov it remains a relatively free country where we are entitled to hold and express our different opinions.

The polls this weekend (all of them, even the Times and Telegraph's - both 'weighted in the tories favour by their methodology) have all remained showing significant Labour leads and in many cases a widening lead.

I totally agree that 'The Sun' is a blatently opportunistic rag (personally I'd go stronger and call it the P.O.S. I think it is) who think they are 'supporting Labour' (as you say, what they believe to be the winning side) despite a torrent of tory slant and support from last general election polling day to this.

No genuine Labour supporter with open eyes is in the least bit convinced by their claims to 'support' Labour, IMO.