Dallas Fed Respondent Sums It Up: “Anyone Saying We’re Not In Recession Is Peddling Fiction”

a reply to: onequestion

In the quote you have used (and in more detail on their web site) it explains that it is not random but put together to give a an accurate representation of the population , uses a large sample size and because it is done monthly is inherently self auditing when compared to a one off survey (which people often seem to treat as gospel). It is an estimate but probably a fairly accurate one at least in terms of measuring within its own definition (again clearly explained on the site) of what unemployment is.

Can you suggest a better method?

a reply to: ScepticScot

Yes.... The labor force participation rate then vs the labor force participation rate now.

That's one guess but I'm sure there is more out there.

a reply to: onequestion

Labour force participation rate is a valid metric but it measures something differentand is only better or worse depending on what you are trying to measure.

Also not sure why you think it is any less an estimated figure?

a reply to: ScepticScot

It's far more accurate being compiled from census data.

Not seemingly random households selected from different regions of households.

They use a group measure of 60,000 people selected from various places somewhat randomly based on certain criteria and were suppose to believe that this represents the macrocosm of what's happening with 94 million people?

I bet it ranges very dramatically from area to area.

I think it would more accurately depict the truth of the labor force than how they are currently estimating unemployement.

We could even quantify variables and play games with them to see how dramatically it effects the overall percentages.

a reply to: onequestion

Happy to be corrected if otherwise but would be surprised if wasn't calculated using the same or similar data set.
Is a different metic (you can argue for and against it being better) but it is still going to be an estimate and probably no more or less accurate than unemployment rate.