"The Worst of All Worlds": Don't Believe the Recovery Hype, Ortel Says

Enjoy the last days of summer and the Labor Day holiday because there is "abundant cause for concern," says Charles Ortel, managing director of Newport Value Partners, an independent research firm.

A self-described optimist, Ortel nevertheless says the "worst of all worlds" is coming, characterized by falling asset prices and higher taxes, accompanied by a rising cost of core goods and services. Echoing the "stagflation" of the 1970s, he has coined the term "skew-flation" to describe what's ahead.

As to growing consensus the global economy is on the mend, Ortel believes both government "macro" data and corporate "micro" data are painting a much rosier picture vs. actual reality. The real macro story, he says, is there's too much productive capacity around the world and not enough demand. At the same time, private sector incomes are down while debt levels are up.

"We are still in the middle of systemic shock" and emergency government programs have temporarily kept the global economy on "life support," he says. "We think governments have little additional room left to continue to postpone the restructuring that's necessary around the world."

Tech Ticker

The information is out their guys. It's not that hard to find. Myself and others have been saying since February that that this isnt a real recovery.

It's coming to a head the information is saying troubled times are coming.

reply to post by Tentickles


The summer went by fast and easy, however it looks like this winter is going to be long and hard. Economic and political troubles as well as civilian uprisings...a long cold winter indeed.

Originally posted by Tentickles

"We are still in the middle of systemic shock" and emergency government programs have temporarily kept the global economy on "life support," he says. "We think governments have little additional room left to continue to postpone the restructuring that's necessary around the world."

When does the stimulus package kick in? I heard it wouldn't really kick in for another year? So how has it kept things going if it hasn't really kick in yet?

Politics Today: A More Prescriptive Approach

BIDEN AND THE STIMULUS: "Vice President Joe Biden will claim Thursday that the $787 billion stimulus plan "is doing more, faster, more efficiently, and more effectively than we had hoped," reports McClatchy Newspapers' Steven Thomma.

"In a speech planned to mark the 200-day mark since the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act took effect, Biden will say that $62.5 billion in tax cuts have been delivered, $1.9 billion contracts have been awarded to small businesses, and more than 10,000 transportation projects approved.

"In many areas, he'll say that work has exceeded goals: Work has started on 2,200 highway projects, for example, 700 more than the expected at this stage; Work's also started on 192 airport projects, 94 more than scheduled; Health care centers in all 50 states are providing expanded health care to 500,000 patients, 200,000 more than forecast.

[edit on 3-9-2009 by SLAYER69]

reply to post by SLAYER69


Seems we already used 10% or more of it some how. That's a ton of money.

reply to post by SLAYER69


Good question,i'd like to know aswell.Taking a guess with my limited knowledge in economics i assume it has gave the market some hope and optimism for the future hence just the mere fact the bailouts have happened has given some extra confidence to the marketplace even if msot of the money hasn't reached them yet.When it does all flood out and interest rates go up i think that will be an interesting time.

[edit on 3-9-2009 by Solomons]

more evidence that will be ignored by the mob... the ignorant, sheeple mob... its too bad us ATS'ers didnt have a way to eject our truth into the faces of the abundant sheeple... wake em up..