What makes COVID-19 worse than Seasona Influenza in one pic

a reply to: Tim2win

I think you took it the wrong way.
No apologies necessary.

when you you look up from the gutter evrything sparkles

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: FredT

It looks like the hospitalization rate and percent of fatalities, is comparing the US flu against worldwide covid19.

As you pointed out its....rates and percentages sooo.

what happened to ATS? conspiracy theorists now giving up their rights with spoon fed media propaganda and government data. i feel like i'm on reddit here

a reply to: ruckus49

Reality sucks.
Don't it?

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: FredT

It looks like the hospitalization rate and percent of fatalities, is comparing the US flu against worldwide covid19.

Quoting so everyone can read this again.

Whoever made the info graphic definitely read how to lie with statistics!

The fatality rate is always going to be inaccurate. Got to assume that given that the Chinese will never divulge the real#’s.
When corona virus was first becoming a problem they denied access to The U.S. to study the virus and help with a. Solution.
Probably the most obvious reason was they know it came from the government’s bio virus lab in Wuhan

a reply to: FredT

Take it as you will. The stats however seem consistent with what we are seeing in Italy and elsewhere

hospitalisation rates where higher in italy.

Haven't spent much time visiting ATS of late but felt it was time to take a look at the CHINESE Corona Virus threads.

Only time and FACTS are going to bear out how serious or not, this 'pandemic' is going to be.

What I've been noting & recording is the exponential daily rate of growth in the figures (cases/deaths), and they aren't something that should be easily dismissed.

We are seeing a daily 10% (at least) exponential growth in cases/deaths.

Now I agree that the cases figures will be related to more testing, the DEATHS growing at 10% daily exponentially, is the scarier number.

Currently just on 13,000 worldwide deaths as I write this, and we will be looking at around 34,000 deaths in 10 days (potentially tripling in 10 days). Fortunately the percentages of deaths in the US is less than 1.5% based on the known cases.

We could be close to hitting 1,000,000 cases in the same time-frame.

Some countries are showing 30% to 60% DAILY cases increases.

Need to see the graphs flattening real soon...hopefully all efforts to halt this will start flattening the curve.

One thing I don't believe, is the data coming our of China about containment etc.

originally posted by: face23785
Does anyone have a good source for the worldwide death rate for the flu?

I've found a table comparing various flu pandemics on the wikipage for the 2009 flu pandemic (a.k.a. the swine flu). It has the "Typical seasonal flu" listed as 290,000 - 650,000/year in number of deaths worldwide with a case fatality rate of < 0.1%. It has the ongoing 2019/2020 seasonal flu listed as 0.45 - 1.2 million deaths worldwide (USA: 20 - 52,000). The swine flu of 2009 was 151,700 - 575,400 deaths with a 0.03% case fatality rate.

So Corona in the US or worldwide still has quite a ways to catch up in terms of number of deaths, but the numbers may be quite different for Italy. Which is why I've been trying to get some more accurate statistics per country and per week or month to get a better idea how the flu compares to corona in sheer number of deaths for a given period of time. Having a hard time finding such data though, although in my search I did come across the number 80,000 for the number of deaths in the USA for last year's seasonal flu. I'd like to know the number for Italy though, and preferrably per month or week for better comparison with corona's development there to really get an idea which one will cause more deaths in Italy in the end, and how much more.

Another odd thing I noticed on wikipedia just now is that Covid-19 is no longer listed in this table, while previously it was. Don't know what to think of that. It did make Covid-19 look considerably less significant in terms of numbers of deaths worldwide in such a table though.

What do you think, will Covid-19 reach 1 million deaths worldwide before the end of the year and end up becoming comparable to the 2019-2020 seasonal flu? Or will it go far beyond that? Or maybe only in places such as Italy, Spain and maybe France, the Netherlands and Belgium given how fast it is spreading there and their rising fatality rates.

It seems to me that in Asia, places like China in particular, Corona will never reach the number of deaths caused by the seasonal flu. But in Europe, both the spread of the virus and fatality rates are going in the wrong direction for some countries. The containment measures and treatment measures are definitely not working as well as those in Asia. So if you look at those countries individually, Corona deaths may already exceed or come close to exceeding flu deaths; although that doesn't change the worldwide numbers enough for Corona to come close to the 2019-2020 seasonal flu worldwide in number of deaths, for the moment that is. It is exactly these countries that are still in the early stages of the corona pandemic where the numbers are still on the rise (every day more cases and deaths than the increase the previous day).

originally posted by: SpaceJockey1

One thing I don't believe, is the data coming our of China about containment etc.

Similar data is coming out of the rest of Asia though, most countries can keep the spread of the virus below China's 56 cases per 1 million people, and there isn't a single one where the virus seems to be spreading as fast as in Europe (or where the increase in this number is still heavily on the rise as it is in Europe); as far as I can see that is. South Korea is the worst hit with 174 cases per 1 million pop but there's a decline in the new cases per day and they have a low fatality rate, which could mean there are less unreported cases compared to those countries with a high fatality rate. Most are still below China's 56 cases per 1 million pop though (Singapore has 74 but only 2 deaths).

In comparison the spread of Corona per 1 million pop elsewhere is (going through the countries sorted in order of absolute number of deaths on the worldometers website):

Italy: 886 (and rising fast)
Iran: 245 (not rising as fast as Europe anymore)
Spain: 545
France: 222 (still rising significantly faster than most Asian countries, but not as fast as Italy and Spain)
USA: 81 (not too bad, rising slightly less fast than France was in the previous week, still already higher than China though, and China remains at 56 for a while now)
UK: 74 (overtaken by USA in the past couple of days, doing much better than the rest of Europe, but high fatality rates suggest the disease may be more widespread than this number indicates, and again, the spread is much faster than in Asia)
Netherlands: 212 (following France closely, both in spread speed and fatality rates)
Germany: 267 (but they have that freaky low fatality rate of < 0.4%; they seem to have a lot of respirators and do even more tests than S.Korea; Austria and Norway have similar low fatality rates, might their climate have something to do with their breathing?)
Switzerland: 793 (fatality rate slighty rising above 1% in the past couple of days)
Belgium: 243 (following the pattern in France and the Netherlands, slightly lower fatality rate of about 2.4% compared to France's 3.9% and Netherlands' 3.8%)

I won't do the countries with less than 50 deaths other than to mention that there are a lot of big Asian countries that are doing better than the countries above in this regards (number of deaths, spread of the virus per 1 million pop, spread speed, i.e. how fast the spread of the virus per 1 million pop is rising, and fatalities per 1M pop). Countries such as Indonesia, Japan and the Philippines all have better results in containment and treatment (less cases and deaths per 1 million pop, and less increase over time in those statistics).

One more tab to sort on in the table from worldometers.info would be useful to have though: Tot Deaths/1M pop. Then you can really see who's hit the hardest regardless of how many tests those countries do or how many unreported cases there are, well... sort of (given the numbers that are available regarding Corona-related deaths, there are probably less instances percentage-wise of unreported Corono-related deaths than unreported Corona cases, so you get a more accurate listing of who's hit the hardest in terms of death than when sorting on Tot Cases/1M pop).

Still looking for some useful graphs in this regards. Just looking at the absolute numbers of cases or fatality rates alone doesn't tell me much in terms of how bad the Corona problem is or is going to get in a particular country. You really need to compare it to the population of said country to get a more accurate picture of that. And to gage (gauge? measure and estimate) the effectiveness of certain measures of containment and methods of treatment and compare them as they differ from country to country, it would be helpful if the graphs could reflect that comparison with the population of a country for a better representation of the situation. For example a graph that compares the increase over time of the Tot Cases/1M pop with different countries. Or the increase of Tot Deaths/1M pop. Both are good indicators of how fast the disease is spreading amongst the population of that country. Maybe someone knows another website other than worldometers.info that might have such graphs.

originally posted by: whereislogic

Germany: 267 (but they have that freaky low fatality rate of < 0.4%; they seem to have a lot of respirators and do even more tests than S.Korea; Austria and Norway have similar low fatality rates, might their climate have something to do with their breathing?)

I don't know if Germany already passed S.Korea in number of tests per 1M pop, but I do know that all 4 of those countries with low fatality rates, are also high up in the lists sorted by number of tests per 1M pop. Lower fatality rates for the countries high in the list of test numbers per 1M pop, is the norm. With the exception of Italy who maybe was just a little late with the tests or is testing the wrong people to help keep the virus away from the most vulnerable people. At least that's how I try to explain the correlation (since testing doesn't seem to correlate with keeping the spread of the virus down, low, slow?).

Of course, obviously, more tests means more registered cases, which automatically lowers the fatality rate compared to those countries that have more unregistered untested cases. But there seems to be something more going on, in particular in countries like Germany, Norway and Austria which have < 0.4% fatality rates (which may indicate a real fatality rate closer to the seasonal flu at < 0.1%, considering that there are still unregistered untested cases in those countries as well). That's considerably different than what's going on in Italy, Spain, etc. (the ones with fatality rates of 2% and above, or heading in that direction even as test numbers are increased).

I hear ya. Same thing happened to me and my employees last year from November to early January. We handle a lot of small packages from a customer who next day airs them to us via Fed Ex. We ship hundreds of these a day from October thru December. We see all kind of weird things opening the master containers—hairs, blood stains, nails, god knows they sneeze into the boxes. Anyway, we all went through 2 bouts of flu like symptoms that hit us like a rock. And then we would recover. My girlfriend had a cough and congestion she just could not get rid of. It took her two months to get rid of it. The doctor told her it was an upper respiratory infection and gave her meds. But it did nothing. I believe that we have been exposed already. No one died. But we got really messed up. Hopefully we have built up some herd immunity. a reply to: CynConcepts