What's going on at Yellowstone part 2

I can't get passed the graphs. I realized the rising and falling only goes back to 2000. Before that there is no exact data. However, I do know that there are studies to show that Yellowstone has always been rising and falling. They've studied the lake and there is a record of uplift and subsidence in the rock. So, this is why so many geologists say the park is rising and falling within historic norms.

Because I am so slow, thick, dull, obtuse, etc, I need simple analogies, or rudimentary metaphors to keep things straight. I am one of those chicken little types that are looking up. So, I actually like it when an authority figure can use their expertise to reassure me everything will stay the same forever. I really liked the image the geologists put in my head. They described it like breathing. The volcano lifts and falls like the chest of a sleeping giant. (they didn't say this exactly- this what i imagined) This makes Yellowstone seem so peaceful. So sleepy. It's just like I've been read my goodnight story and I'm ready for bed.

I really like the image. The volcano is breathing... -------------------------------------- Wrong. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------For this to be true, the exhaling breath would have brought the level down to starting point where the inflation began. The inflation should have reset to 2005 levels. But the subsidence only decreased the height by about 50% before reversing course.

I know I wrote that there must be another injection. And stand by that. But this inflation may be from heat alone. Meaning the heat from the last injection is building back up and therefore we have expansion. However, I believe there was an injection and the earthquakes in Idaho earlier in the year were part of that process. If this is the case, then the chamber is not rising and falling in a normal way. But rather, it is filling and not just pulsating. If you look at the graphs, you'll see that the rising of the volcano was sharper than the fall. This makes perfect sense. The filling of the chamber was quicker than the heat and stress dispersal. It's like heating something up with a blowtorch. It takes only a moment or two to heat up some metal, but it takes a while to cool down. For whatever reason, Yellowstone hasn't "cooled back down". Something changed the equation. I'm sorry to say, that everything is not normal.





Sometimes I am a jerk.
There was an earthquake in Idaho this morning. Hmmmm.....

a reply to: ericblair4891

Yes, and there was one a few days ago

3.8 rumbles eastern Idaho

I have to correct myself again. I was claiming deformation rates from back in 1971 was... until I realized that the GPS stations at the park only go back to 1999 ish. Some don't start til 2001. But my brain must have remembered a graph I just found. It show uplift of the caldera as far back as 1974. Back then they were using sticks and telescopes. But they were measuring it.



Anyway. The present rate of uplift seems to be greater than at any point since they really started looking, back in ole' 1974.

Read this page... and I'm sure there's an updated graph which shows the whole thing with all the swarms but I'm hot and busy.

pubs.usgs.gov...

so, not 1971 , i feel better that i've corrected myself. and if you notice, the caldera goes up faster than it goes back down..

Yup, I'm still obsessing. I've been trying to settle the matter in my own mind by finding some accurate data. Well, that has not been easy. I was reading up on the subject and have found that WLWY GPS is offline. I'm not too quick to jump to conspiracy. I've been watching Yellowstone for years so I've seen lots of instruments breaking down or acting strangely. Even when Norris had that big jump and dump I didn't worry. I have a basic understanding of what's normal. There. I suppose.

Overall, earthquakes are on the low end of the scale. Small swarms here and there as per usual. Let's forget Norris for the moment to make that statement 100% true. I've been reading the official YVO page and updates. They've been kept busy dealing with rumours galore. None of the rumours have interested me and I really haven't been that keen on entertaining the ideas. Norris was the only exception. Also, Jake Lowenstern stated that the GPS station WLWY is offline -but since there are other active stations which are still measuring uplift- no need to worry ( what me worry?.

Here's their main page. You can find Jake's Montly update. Anmarie usually puts it up but I think she missed the last one.

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

So, it's not exactly been easy to figure out the rate of uplift. For reference, you should at least scan, " An extraordinary episode of Yellowstone caldera uplift,
2004–2010, from GPS and InSAR observations
Wu‐Lung Chang,1 Robert B. Smith,2 Jamie Farrell,2 and Christine M. Puskas."

www.uusatrg.utah.edu...

So, when Yellowstone is rising at rate of 7 cm per year, this is considered an extraordinary event. Well, it seem commonplace now. Because this recent uplift is at least equal to 7 cm. Looking at the graphs and reading the updates by Jake, it can be stated that the uplift didn't start right at January 1. Also, I should note that the GPS station which showed the greatest uplift during that extraordinary period (2005-2010) was the now defunked WLWY. I'm sure it's collecting data, it's just not sending data. If you look at the graphs, it would appear that there has been at least 5 cm or 6 cm of uplift, and that is for about only six months. Given a year, that would be 10 cm. Okay, let's be conservative and say 9cm or 8 cm. This still means we have an even greater uplift than the extraordinary uplift of 2005-2010. Yet, everything is normal according to the YVO. And, if you take the whole period from 1974 ( yeah- robin ) ) if you take the recorded history of uplift and subsidence, you don't get ups and downs. YOU get a fluctuating rising of the caldera.
This is not a minor difference in interpretation.

If anyone can find a graph with the whole record of uplift from 1974 to present I would be very thankful. And, I know this isn't easy to do since I don't even know if they have a graph with a whole record. Because the park doesn't rise and fall in unison. If you've been watching you'll know the thing is always moving. One area over here (Norris) one area over there (White Lake) So, it's not that I don't agree with the geologist's statement that Yellowstone is moving as per normal, it's just that they aren't exactly telling the whole story.

So, my story and their story differ. But the funny thing is that we are using the same information. The difference may be that the are experts and I but a lonely loon. So, be warned to always consider all sides of the situation before judging.

From the information that they, the Official Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, have provided, Yellowstone had an "EXTRAORDINARY" uplift due to " magmatic replenishment". I'll say this again, MAGMATIC REPLENISHMENT caused the previous uplift. So, the same is happening again, after only a short SUBSIDENCE, and is happening at a fastest, or faster rate.





The volcano is filling. And seemingly faster than before.






(i tried to understate this conclusion so as not to put my doom spin on it---- this is according to data research papers- i'm just reporting)

So, if someone can provide any data or proof that I'm off base, please share because I have yet to comfort myself in any way. (I'm sorry, I keep trying to figure what's causing me to panic and not let go. And there's no big mystery. It's boils down to Yellowstone is heating up faster than it's cooling down. And I can't ignore that fact.

a reply to: ericblair4891

The problem is that Yellowstone is vast and ancient. We've only been studying it for a few decades, so we have no idea what is 'normal' and what is not. Recent activity might be it just turning over in its sleep. Or it might be the start of an eruption. In the event of activity we don't know how large an eruption it might be. A small dome-building eruption might just see a few new small hills appear. A larger one - well, we all know what the worst case scenario is.

a reply to: AngryCymraeg

Actually, the record of uplift which geologists can traces is more than just decades. That's just the detailed measuring. There is the record in the rock. They can even date hydro-thermal explosions in the lake. There are videos and papers on the subject. Except, I just tried to find a good video on the lake and can't. It was a female geologists and she studied the lake and gave a great presentation. Look for it. Sorry, already been obsessing passed my allotted time limit. I'd go on forever and research all day but can't....

I haven't even said I think that Yellowstone will erupt. I'm just make conclusions based on the GPS and the studies. The fact is Yellowstone is filling with magma. Again.

(If I had to guess about an eruption, it would be in the lake. and it hydro-thermal. )

I notice the webcam has been down for 2 days now. There is also an alert that Craig Pass is closed for the season effective Sep 2 2014
Sure seems a long way from the south entrance to detour around this to get to the park.

I was just directed to this thread after one was closed about a video capturing some lights, either strange or just headlights, at Yellowstone. The moderator said the thread was already being discussed here, but I don't see any discussion on this video. What's up with that?

The White Lake GPS is back online.

It's showing uplift. But the most dramatic station seems to be HVWY.




If you look at the uplift that started in 2005 and then look at the current rate that began earlier this year, you'll see this episode is trending sharply upward. The uplift is at least 5cm and is probably greater than that. Which means the rate is going to be greater than 7cm for a calender year, if it keeps up at the same rate.

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

I wouldn't be writing if I really thought I had nothing new to say. I am sick of myself already. I'm going to make a prediction to test a theory. (throat clearing- hypothesis(oh, please shut up)) The upload is of a tiny, tiny earthquake near Norris. I expect a smallish swarm to happen there soon. (moderate swarm? (oh, please shut up)).

The other day there was a 3m near the site of an earlier swarm this year. There appears to be a pattern and cycle.

I should be fair and show that there was some more hints yesterday.



But these could be leftovers from that 3M.

a reply to: ericblair4891
Oh please Eric...don't ever shut up.

a reply to: Jansy
Agreed, keep posting your thoughts, Eric.

There were a few more pops overnight, north of Norris Junction. (nevermind--I just read your edit, lol)Borehole seismo 950

Keeping an eye here volcanoes.usgs.gov...

YS2014 so far, according to the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory Seismic Network, University of Utah Seismograph Stations, accessed through the ANSS (Advanced National Seismic System) composite catalog. All times are UTC

right click "view image" if it isn't big enough, probably depends on yer screen size, I dunno

compare with some other years
YS yearly graphs 1985, 2011-2014

M 3.1 - 36km WNW of West Yellowstone, Montana

DYFI? - IV
Time2014-10-27 05:35:21 UTC-05:00Location44.819°N 111.503°WDepth9.8km

Being a geologist (although retired) let me point out a few things regarding some of the data being presented as being concerning.

When discussing yellowstone and only looking at data over a period of 20 years (or even 100, if it were available) is like looking at your breathing over a few seconds period. The period is too short to draw concrete conclusions regarding forecasting or worrying that something is about to happen.

Granted, if one knows the movement of the magma, the size of the chambers involved etc etc one may have a better picture of what is going on, but this animal is one we just do not have sufficient information about over a long enough period of time.

Don't get me wrong.... if something does happen there may be a few geologists who will pick up on it and be able to issue a warning, but the warning will likely be vague and unspecific at best. If the indications of upcoming activity are so certain that geologists have no doubts about something violent about to happen soon...then we better run for the hills.

Has anyone been paying attention to Yellowstone recently? Is it me or have to seismographs gone quite.

a reply to: oldworldbeliever
I never stop paying attention to it, not since 2003 at least. That park is a living thing. As bbracken677 said, it breathes, very slowly. It gets noisy, it goes quiet, noisy, quiet, swarm, quiet, noisy... Let's just say, what it's doing now, even those 206 quakes it had in January, is nothing unusual. It's done far more worrying things before. I even joined ATS because of one of those things: the 2008/2009 swarm. That had over 800 quakes in one week ranging all the way up to magnitude 3.87, and then it went right back to sleep as always, but people are worried now about 200 in a whole month that never got bigger than a 2.3?? It's like some people just aren't happy unless they're terrified of something, even if they have to invent that something... or let someone on YouTube invent it for them. You win, mainstream media. You've gotten everyone so used to being afraid that they now think something's wrong whenever they aren't afraid.

Sorry, I don't mean to be all screed-y. But every time someone like Dutchsinse or Mary Greeley sees a noisy seismogram and makes a video about it, my web server melts down. (I run the Yellowstone monitoring site on isthisthingon.org, y'see, and the server's in my bedroom, so getting "slashdotted" means the whole house's internet starts acting like it's on a 2400-baud modem.) When it gets too quiet, that TOO is obviously worthy of a YouTube video, and again, the web server melts. I just can't win. They won't let me. They want to feel Important, so I get to suffer. And don't get me started on all the posts on beforeitsnews and The Unmentionable Site that embed 200-kilobyte gifs from my site directly into their stories instead of downloading them and hosting them locally. That's just rude.

In short (too late), we're watching, many of us, and we have no ties to anything remotely media- or government-related. If the right signs start popping up, you will hear about it, probably right here, but such signs will be so obvious and unmissable that even Fox News will be forced to report on it. I don't care how much they'd like to hide it, they will not be able to, any more than they could've covered up the 3/11/11 Japan quake/tsunami. In shorter, stop worrying for now. You'll know when to start worrying... not that there'll be anything anyone can do about it. I guess it's more accurate to say "You'll know when to gather all your family together in one place so you can all say goodbye to each other." That'll be the only thing to do. And people are anxious for this???

Humans...

a reply to: Thought Provoker

Thank you !

That is why I came here to ask because I knew where the true experts were.

Dutch , well that dude is about the biggest fear monger there is and I have made it a passion to disprove his ridiculous claims. and isthisthing on, yes I was there also.
www.isthisthingon.org...

Very handy to have and thank you for keeping an eye on things.

a reply to: oldworldbeliever

Looks like Madison River is having some current activity from your chart!