Why Is Goldman Sachs Warning That The Stock Market Could Decline By 10 Percent Or More?

A stock market correction is approaching the level of near certainty as Wall Street faces a major paradigm shift in how to achieve price gains, according to aGoldman Sachs analysis.

In a market outlook that garnered significant attention from traders Monday, the firm’s strategists called theS&P 500 valuation “lofty by almost any measure” and attached a 67 percent probability to the chance that the market would fall by 10 percent or more, which is the technical yardstick for a correction.
The current valuation of the S&P 500 is lofty by almost any measure, both for the aggregate market as well as the median stock: (1) The P/E ratio; (2) the current P/E expansion cycle; (3) EV/Sales; (4) EV/EBITDA; (5) Free Cash Flow yield; (6) Price/Book as well as the ROE and P/B relationship; and compared with the levels of (6) inflation; (7) nominal 10-year Treasury yields; and (8) real interest rates. Furthermore, the cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio suggests the S&P 500 is currently 30% overvalued in terms of (9) Operating EPS and (10) about 45% overvalued

Why Is Goldman Sachs Warning That The Stock Market Could Decline By 10 Percent Or More?

I've been watching the market closely over the last year and it looks as if all hell is about to break loose on Wall Street. I think 10% is an understated figure so as not to create an immediate panic, but the fact that Goldman Sachs has come out with this forecast alone sends a very dire signal about the economy. You Look at the real unemployment numbers alone and it's axiomatic that a collapse is imminent. Real gdp calculated with inflation is -10%. All time record numbers of unemployed working age americans is distorted by the media which discards those who gave up looking for work for 6 months from their calculations.
The Obama administration has caused irreparable damage to the foundations of our economy in about every crooked way possible and dhs has been gearing up heavily for civil unrest. This could very well be worse than the great depression.
The fascist authoritarians running our government want everyone to be dependent on the system therefore allowing the nanny state to control every facet of our lives where debt slavery becomes reality and the middle class will be destroyed. We already live in a privileged society, where money and connections determines your exposure to the law and where due process and equal protection are a far fetched fairy tale.
We have allowed this to go on for too long, forgotten what history has shown us, and disregarded our founding fathers warnings. There is a price for everything, we have to now reset the system to destroy the cancer and unfortunately it means loss of life, and property but our liberties must be prized above all during these tumultuous times as this is all we have left worth fighting for.

IF YOU ASK ME THE BARSTIDS ARE GETTING READY TO CREATE THE CRASH....
They arent going to suffer in the tumble...just the pension trusts and the average 401k investors will be wiped out.
THIS IS HOW ITS DONE TO YOU KIDDIES..............

reply to post by MOSTwanted


There was a thread on here... on ATS... about a month ago, maybe a bit less, that was using statistics comparing the current stock market to the stock market right before the crash that started The Great Depression - that thread was using a graph overlay.

I think the 10% is probably a low number, as well - that's how things have been going as of late, it seems - understating the seriousness of the economic issues.

reply to post by MOSTwanted


As a non American it baffles me on how idiotic Americans in general (not in total) express political views and protest against governance. In Europe most of us understand that the idiot in charge is a stick figure (most of the time and increasingly so) that is a front for a party (not as linear as that in the US but substitute party by a cabal of interests, that even has less consideration for the populace that in Europe, since they have to contend with often constructive attacks by multiple opposing forces, a benefit of not having an almost artificial duology of power).

What irked me to make this post was the party line that infects the OP into idiocy.

The Obama administration has caused irreparable damage to the foundations of our economy in about every crooked way possible and dhs has been gearing up heavily for civil unrest

One may as well be mad with the present administration but one needs also to candid and realize that the problem is not only a causality of the present dummy. If you look at the Economy you can realize that it did not start (and will not end) in this term, in fact it started to aggravate for you US after Clinton (that did a good recuperative job if we consider the median and what he got handed down, even if some of his own actions also seeded some of the negative returns you are getting now).

Consider just one thing the American Credit Party is over, life will be tough from now on whatever magician you manage to conger up. You governance especially since Regan did this to you and well to the rest of the Western world. Note that the BRICS are not taking the cake they just are getting their act together, the cake was already eaten by your credit driven economy model and will doom many future generations. There is today very few areas of expansion and we can hope now is a boom and bust cycle and hope that the bust creates so much destruction that opportunities exist for the next boom...

I wish that most of you that are still pushing a party line consider your own future and the validity of your claims beyond attempting to sell the next cycle. I get that we should it the dummy but after him they will just prop up another one...

If you have the money to speculate, then it's time to speculate and set yourself up to profit.

reply to post by Saucerking


Why would one do that if the economy is about to crash. I don't know a lot about it so a genuine question.

Panic2k11
reply to post by MOSTwanted

 

As a non American it baffles me on how idiotic Americans in general (not in total) express political views and protest against governance. In Europe most of us understand that the idiot in charge is a stick figure (most of the time and increasingly so) that is a front for a party (not as linear as that in the US but substitute party by a cabal of interests, that even has less interest in the interests of the population that in Europe, since they have to contend with often constructive attacks by multiple opposing forces, a benefit of not having an almost artificial duology of power).

What irked me to make this post was the party line that infects the OP into idiocy.

The Obama administration has caused irreparable damage to the foundations of our economy in about every crooked way possible and dhs has been gearing up heavily for civil unrest

One may as well be mad with the present administration but one needs also to candid and realize that the problem is not only a causality of the present dummy. If you look at the Economy you can realize that it did not start (and will not end) in this term, in fact it started to aggravate for you US after Clinton (that did a good recuperative job if we consider the median and what he got handed down, even if some of his own actions also seeded some of the negative returns you are getting now).

Consider just one thing the American Credit Party is over, life will be tough from now on whatever magician you manage to conger up. You governance especially since Regan did this to you and well to the rest of the Western world. Note that the BRICS are not taking the cake they just are getting their act together, the cake was already eaten by your credit driven economy model and will doom many future generations. There is today very few areas of expansion and we can hope now is a boom and bust cycle and hope that the bust creates so much destruction that opportunities exist for the next boom...

I wish that most of you that are still pushing a party line consider your own future and the validity of your claims beyond attempting to sell the next cycle. I get that we should it the dummy but after him they will just prop up another one...

Excuse me, but you are not from our country therefore you are unqualified to act like an expert on our economy as you lack any experience of what it is like to be led by Obama. Obviously he's a puppet, no need to insult my intelligence for not spelling that out in my short introduction mr. Smarty pants from a foreign country. What even qualifies you to comment your 110 iq opinion about foreign politics hmm? I don't go to an article about Germany's prime minister and economic conditions and ejaculate my American sploosh into the local's conversation so how about you stay outta this one as you lack the necessary perspective to contribute anything meaningful to the discussion. There are globalists behind the scenes putting corrupt politicians in office and corporate interests run our world...Why do u assume I am unaware of this? Learn some manners and some respect.
P.s. I'm 23

It is only a matter of time till there is a big correction. I think it will be within a month or two. I thought the same way a couple of months ago though and it didn't crash...yet.

reply to post by MOSTwanted

Excuse me, but you are not from our country therefore you are unqualified to act like an expert on our economy as you lack any experience of what it is like to be led by Obama.

Sadly your view as expressed above is not only wrong but demonstrate what is wrong with your nation's world view. Most of the world is directed by your national politics since the end of WW2, those that are not directed are influenced and those that are not influences are invaded or require nuclear weapons to keep your grubby hands off their national resources. So it is a sad state of affairs but it is what makes your business my business, I wish I would have to pay as much attention to your politicians travesties as much as I do lets say to the Estonian ones...

Panic2k11
reply to post by MOSTwanted

 

Excuse me, but you are not from our country therefore you are unqualified to act like an expert on our economy as you lack any experience of what it is like to be led by Obama.

Sadly your view as expressed above is not only wrong but demonstrate what is wrong with your nation's world view. Most of the world is directed by your national politics since the end of WW2, those that are not directed are influenced and those that are not influences are invaded or require nuclear weapons to keep your grubby hands off their national resources. So it is a sad state of affairs but it is what makes your business my business, I wish I would have to pay as much attention to your politicians travesties as much as I do lets say to the Estonian ones...

The United states happens to house to most corrupt institutions no doubt and we do have access to more resources than any other country; however in doing so like our European cousins, we have entered a debt spiral. There's a little thing called Obama care that is severely contributing to the societal issues americans face and as the title suggests it was Obama the puppet who sold it to us through the corrupt socialist media. You seem happy to live in a socialist society like a well trained animal learns to love it's master. America was founded upon higher principles that we have long lost forgotten which is why we find ourselves in this predicament. Don't blame capitalism, the system was hijacked and kamikaze'd by elite criminal bankers and by institutions like the Vatican and the state. Talk about ultimate betrayal

Dianec
reply to post by Saucerking

 

Why would one do that if the economy is about to crash. I don't know a lot about it so a genuine question.

Goes like this, they have to say it to get it going. They have to say the Words for it to manifest.and so God was the Word and the Word was God. So in other Words let there be light and there was ........? Religion has nothing to do with what I am saying. Read between the lines.From now through march you can kiss it all goodbye

13th Zodiac

Dianec
reply to post by Saucerking

 

Why would one do that if the economy is about to crash. I don't know a lot about it so a genuine question.

Goes like this, they have to say it to get it going. They have to say the Words for it to manifest.and so God was the Word and the Word was God. So in other Words let there be light and there was ........? Religion has nothing to do with what I am saying. Read between the lines.

Belief that something has a certain value is what determines it's value so yes undermining that belief system would translate to decline in the value of said commodity. On top of that, it's already projected that the markets are inflated between 30-45% so there is real concern as well not just an imaginary effect from Goldman Sachs coming out and stating the above.

Pointing fingers is not the answer to our current situation. Getting our manufacturing jobs back is
Want to change the state of the us? Quit supporting multi billion dollar corporations such as walmart.
They have been instrumental in the decline of the us.

As a whole, the united states has grown week. Heavily reliant on imports. Mostly from china.
You may ask, why is that. Because of nafta, bush era tax cuts and outsourcing jobs from america abroad.
We have gotten so greedy as a whole, that we have lost track of sustainability.

We can not begin to take care of our own people when all we do is import. There is very little actually made
in the united stats now day. You would be hard pressed to find a made in the usa tag, on anything
readily available at a store.

We are the creators of our own demise. We were bought up by big corporations, only most dont see it.
Everyone is happy as long as they have their over priced chinese iphones and cheap mass produced electronics.
Mostly made with child labor. A plate of fish heads and rice, hows that for minimum wage. But hey they gotta eat dont they?

I hope they do crash the market. Sometimes what people need is a rude awakening.
What better way to knock the sense into someone than a slap to the face? Maybe a kick in the gonads with a golf shoe?
What will it take before my brothers and sisters realize what a mess we let our "representatives" make of this nation?

Giant Vampire Squid probably has too many short positions.
Time to engineer a little dip in the market and feed itself more wealth.....

reply to post by MOSTwanted

however in doing so like our European cousins, we have entered a debt spiral.

Humm not so fast, first not all European nations did go into the credit wagon and not in the rate the US did or taking advantage of its capacity to export inflation. Even if you look at the PIIGS (the boarder of the EU) you can readily understand why they collapsed, one needs not be an Economist to see that not all European Economies are at the same level of development (Ireland was a miracle nation not so long ago) and to a point have been cannibalized from central Europe. With the exception of England you do not have any similitude in Europe, the EU problem is the crazy structuring of the EURO and the periphery is only suffering because the center refuses to take the required actions. One also needs to understand that even if the problem was latent the European crisis was an export from the US collapse and toxic products.

America was never about capitalism, at best free enterprise ideals that was to a point obvious that would devolve in the way it did, even your founding fathers warned of the dangers. Now as European I don't see any problem with socialism to a point is safer to implement than communism and capitalism is not really a social structure but an economic system (that has no social considerations) and so by itself can't be implemented as to guide social development. American style individualism is a mirage than can't be realized in todays exhausted and over populated world...

reply to post by Panic2k11


well that said America's market isn't going to crash anytime soon and all this doom is just hyperbole to get tired key board warriors afraid and peeing in there pant's. Furthermore i will see you all again in the next thread a few months from now claiming wall streets death and once again it will be of futile endevors. I dont agree with what is happening i just think like the UFO community and it's wackys. Doom predictions and fear mongering take credit away from the real issues at hand, and cerntainly offer no solution to the doom that's predicted.

Panic2k11
reply to post by MOSTwanted

 

however in doing so like our European cousins, we have entered a debt spiral.

Humm not so fast, first not all European nations did go into the credit wagon and not in the rate the US did or taking advantage of its capacity to export inflation. Even if you look at the PIIGS (the boarder of the EU) you can readily understand why they collapsed, one needs not be an Economist to see that not all European Economies are at the same level of development (Ireland was a miracle nation not so long ago) and to a point have been cannibalized from central Europe. With the exception of England you do not have any similitude in Europe, the EU problem is the crazy structuring of the EURO and the periphery is only suffering because the center refuses to take the required actions. One also needs to understand that even if the problem was latent the European crisis was an export from the US collapse and toxic products.

America was never about capitalism, at best free enterprise ideals that was to a point obvious that would devolve in the way it did, even your founding fathers warned of the dangers. Now as European I don't see any problem with socialism to a point is safer to implement than communism and capitalism is not really a social structure but an economic system (that has no social considerations) and so by itself can't be implemented as to guide social development. American style individualism is a mirage than can't be realized in todays exhausted and over populated world...

edit on 14-1-2014 by Panic2k11 because: (no reason given)

It's like the pot is calling the kettle black. The only idiocy in this thread is from your socialist (hence communist as it always leads to that) viewpoint declaring how America never was a capitalist economy/society. You have failed to identify any real causes for economic instability like world debt based fiat currencies instituted by the world's richest elite and how through entities like corporations and the chartering of nations into corporations under Vatican charters through the queen of England, the bankers and Jesuit run political criminals have given unto themselves sovereign immunity. Power, and control over every aspect of your life is the goal and the majority of cattle like you are more than willing to be government serfs. You obviously have no idea who you are or where your unalieanable Rights come from as you are a bloody robot mate
If they get their way it will be a truly dystopian world for people like you who in your deluded leftist ideals supported these con men. Look up Marxism and Stalin and even hitler and it's bloody obvious (tens of millions dead 20th century more than died in wars in all history combined) that socialism is a sliding step away from communism but it Will always lead to tyranny. If u don't know that then you're and idiot plain and simple.

reply to post by MOSTwanted

It's like the pot is calling the kettle black

That implies similarity my point was that there are few similarities at all. That is there is not two cancers but a cancer that has metathesized globally...

The only idiocy in this thread is from your socialist (hence communist as it always leads to that) viewpoint declaring how America never was a capitalist economy/society.

America was never a capitalist economy or society, I already explained why a society can't be based solely on capitalistic goals (they have no social values), and even if we can loosely classify American economy as capitalistic (it always had checks and balances that prevented a full implementation of capitalistic ideals, since they aren't compatible with a viable human society). Free enterprise is what better defines the original US ideology that and the empowerment of individualism (at least in aspiration, since the state is not compatible with anarchism).

You have failed to identify any real causes for economic instability like world debt based fiat currencies instituted by the world's richest elite and how through entities like corporations and the chartering of nations into corporations under Vatican charters through the queen of England, the bankers and Jesuit run political criminals have given unto themselves sovereign immunity.

No I didn't. For failure can only exist if an attempt had been made, I had no intention to do so (that was your point, not mine), I could attempt to disprove that but in part I agree with that assessment. I just do not think that today the Vatican or the Queen (or any other monarchy) has any special seat in world power structure, their time has passed and they have many blames but I don't believe that it was a linear implementation of a project, but a series of unfortunate alignments in goals and aspirations that created the power structure we have today.

Power, and control over every aspect of your life is the goal and the majority of cattle like you are more than willing to be government serfs.

I agree with it but I refuse the label and the inference that you know who I am or how I behave. Even if I take you defend capitalistic orientations that I see as unsustainable we agree in many areas, I'm not a socialist I am an anarcho-communism, in that I can identify that I only see a distinction between us. You only care about yourself and I tend to care more about my close community than myself, you are willing only to do sacrifice for your own prosperity, I am willing to do sacrifice for my community benefit even in detriment to my own prosperity. I think that it is obvious in what type of society one should aspire to live a society that thinks like me or one that thinks like you.

Look back to the causes you enumerated and examine closely if they aren't really an expression of your vision. If you understand a bit about economics or sociology you understand that cartelization, monopolism and capital corruption of social structures are a consequence of capitalistic goals.

reply to post by TechniXcality

well that said America's market isn't going to crash anytime soon and all this doom is just hyperbole to get tired key board warriors afraid and peeing in there pant's.

I never said it would but I agree that it will. See The US Economy In Pictures 11/04/2013 things have just gotten worst since then. If the FED pulls the rug it all will come crashing down, but the ultimate doom fest will only occur after Japan implodes...

Panic2k11
reply to post by MOSTwanted

 

It's like the pot is calling the kettle black

That implies similarity my point was that there are few similarities at all. That is there is not two cancers but a cancer that has metathesized globally...

The only idiocy in this thread is from your socialist (hence communist as it always leads to that) viewpoint declaring how America never was a capitalist economy/society.

America was never a capitalist economy or society, I already explained why a society can't be based solely on capitalistic goals (they have no social values), and even if we can loosely classify American economy as capitalistic (it always had checks and balances that prevented a full implementation of capitalistic ideals, since they aren't compatible with a viable human society). Free enterprise is what better defines the original US ideology that and the empowerment of individualism (at least in aspiration, since the state is not compatible with anarchism).

You have failed to identify any real causes for economic instability like world debt based fiat currencies instituted by the world's richest elite and how through entities like corporations and the chartering of nations into corporations under Vatican charters through the queen of England, the bankers and Jesuit run political criminals have given unto themselves sovereign immunity.

No I didn't. For failure can only exist if an attempt had been made, I had no intention to do so (that was your point, not mine), I could attempt to disprove that but in part I agree with that assessment. I just do not think that today the Vatican or the Queen (or any other monarchy) has any special seat in world power structure, their time has passed and they have many blames but I don't believe that it was a linear implementation of a project, but a series of unfortunate alignments in goals and aspirations that created the power structure we have today.

Power, and control over every aspect of your life is the goal and the majority of cattle like you are more than willing to be government serfs.

I agree with it but I refuse the label and the inference that you know who I am or how I behave. Even if I take you defend capitalistic orientations that I see as unsustainable we agree in many areas, I'm not a socialist I am an anarcho-communism, in that I can identify that I only see a distinction between us. You only care about yourself and I tend to care more about my close community than myself, you are willing only to do sacrifice for your own prosperity, I am willing to do sacrifice for my community benefit even in detriment to my own prosperity. I think that it is obvious in what type of society one should aspire to live a society that thinks like me or one that thinks like you.

Look back to the causes you enumerated and examine closely if they aren't really an expression of your vision. If you understand a bit about economics or sociology you understand that cartelization, monopolism and capital corruption of social structures are a consequence of capitalistic goals.

Technically there's no such thing as pure capitalism clearly. The Queen of England runs American social security, through the privately owned United states corporation charted under the Virginia company originally. Central banking has Robbed the wealth from the globe so yes its one big cancer. The goal of collapsing the world economy is population control and communism. Socialism institutes stealing, the state grows like a cancer until it consumes the host. America these days is a socialist society. 1913 fed reserve then 1929 engineered depression, new deal socialism installed then slowly were freedoms stolen. Most people are naturally good, and under common law society could thrive. But the world is under statutory law, which is corrupt to serve the privileged classes and government servants as they have taken over the people. The constitution is violated blatantly, no one cares and when the diarrhea hits the fan I'm gonna be 1 step ahead of that mess. You prefer being told what to do and forced to do things u might not want to do, I think for myself, work efficiently for myself, help way more people than I could working for government or a corporation, and make more money than if I did. Small Business can be efficient, it's all the taxes and red tape and big business lobbying that destroys it and ensures a society where the rulers tell you how to live your life. If communism is for you (whatever you try to distinguish it as it's still communism which is rotten poo) then take the chip with all your neighbors, take the mercury vaccines, be a good little Slave and if u bust your butt one year let your government steal a piece of your pie and give the scraps to some drunk bums. Enabling is not the answer, big government is a big business which Is a big problem. We are god on this planet you need to start loving your brothers and sisters naturally and not make the government force you to do that. Give me liberty or give me death cuz I'll just reincarnate as free willy