China confirms new human H7N9 infection

After only one month's hiatus, H7N9 is back in China. Xinhua is reporting but no one in the West seems terribly interested.

China confirms new human H7N9 infection

One new human H7N9 avian influenza case has been confirmed in east China's Zhejiang Province, local authorities said Tuesday.

It was the second such case reported in Zhejiang since late April, according to a statement from the provincial health department.

...H7N9 bird flu cases in China reached 134 by the end of August. Of the cases, 45 patients have died, according to the National Health and Family Planning Commission.

No new cases of H7N9 infection were reported on the Chinese mainland in September, according to the commission.

Zhejiang reports first case of H7N9 avian flu since April

Everytime I hear about another mutated strand... I want to yell... BINGO~!!! Did I win??? No??? Meh~

H7N9 are we at zombie apocalypse level yet??? No??? Then the West won't care... We'll just vaccinate until we are the Zombies and invade the entire world...

And of course, as always, with a death toll of 45 in less than a year, they will cry pandemic!!!!!!

reply to post by soficrow

Because it hasn't mutated to jump from human to human yet. People that get it over there are time and again found to be in close contact with infected birds or pigs.



That mutation clock is ticking though. One day we shall all win the virus lottery.

Don't take statistics too seriously.

You must know how to read them. To be considered a patient you have to be admitted for care. Many people admitted for care must have waited so long that their sickness would only progress to worse if they did not seek immediate help.

It's absolutely true that there are unreported or simply unnoticed cases of this new virus. It would be arrogant to think that a report accounts for everywhere/everyone that this virus has gone to/infected.


Reports of patients and cases / death rates are easily extrapolated to appear worse than the reality really is. This is whether it's intentional or not.


Just like the H1N1, don't panic over this. We have more pressing concerns anyway.

reply to post by BlubberyConspiracy


Nothing is being extrapolated here - the headlines specify reported cases. And fyi, China is testing for H7N9. Also, global disease is arguably the single most important issue facing humanity today. Along with the causative and triggering factors of course.

reply to post by soficrow


What I mean is that in instances like this when the news and health agencies hype up a new virus, usually the initial report contains such a small sample size for mortality rates. Often turning into fear way too early when the amount of data you have isn't enough considering also that many cases go unreported / overcome without notice.

In medical cases you can never have a death rate calculated without forcing people to go and get tested to see if they've come in contact with the disease and overcome it to count them as a survivor.



Of course it deserves being noted though, but things like this are too early to call plague in my opinion.

reply to post by BlubberyConspiracy


I didn't call it a plague, nor am I "fearful" about it. However, I do track emerging diseases, the chronic disease pandemic aka the "NCD Pandemic" and it's social/economic impacts, as well as the "evolutionary paths" indicated by these forces. As far as pandemics go, there is little doubt some virulently infectious disease or another will emerge someday soon. ...I am much less interested in which particular disease or strain might trigger an "apocalypse" than I am in learning about the details of our planet's interconnectedness - eg., how non-living molecules respond to environmental change, mutate, adapt, "infect" living things with their adaptations and so on up the pike.

In more 'traditional' terms - The appearance of another H7N9 case in China is important because many of this disease's mysteries remain unsolved. What is the reservoir? What are the vectors? What happens when a host is co-infected with H7N9, H5N1 and H1N1?

Hey soficrow between H5N1 and H7N9, which do you think has the greater potential to mutate and cause a human pandemic?

If you had to guess what would you say is the percentage chance in the next 10 years of that happening?

What do you think our chances would be in stopping it before it spread world wide? Sorry for the speculative questions, just curious what you think.

reply to post by Count Chocula

Hey soficrow between H5N1 and H7N9, which do you think has the greater potential to mutate and cause a human pandemic?

Either / or, or a hybrid. [Don't think it matters in any event.] Replikins is the best predictor and they're hedging their bets too.

If you had to guess what would you say is the percentage chance in the next 10 years of that happening?

100%

What do you think our chances would be in stopping it before it spread world wide? Sorry for the speculative questions, just curious what you think.

Vaccines are the only way to prevent a pandemic. If we rely on eggs for manufacturing, we don't have a hope in hell of stopping it. The newer genetic technology is faster, but fraught with danger, imho.



Disclaimer: In too much of a hurry to be thoughtful. bbl

One new human H7N9 avian influenza case has been confirmed.
45 have died.
1,360,500,000 is the total population of China.

Should i be worried?

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Flu mutating 8 times faster than any flu virus known: The new bird flu could be mutating up to eight times faster than an average flu virus around a protein that binds it to humans, a team of research scientists in Shenzhen says. Dr .He Jiankui, an associate professor at South University of Science and Technology of China, said yesterday that the authorities should be alarmed by the results of their research and step up monitoring and control efforts to prevent a possible pandemic. With genetic code of the virus obtained from mainland authorities, the team scrutinized haemagglutinin, a protein that plays a crucial rule in the process of infection. The protein binds the virus to an animal cell, such as respiratory cells in humans, and bores a hole in the cell’s membrane to allow entry by the virus. The researchers found dramatic mutation of haemagglutinin in one of the four flu strains released for study by the central government. Nine of the protein’s 560 amino acids had changed. In a typical flu virus, only one or two amino acids could change in such a short period of time, He said. “It happened in just one or two weeks. The speed may not have caught up with the HIV, but it’s quite unusual for a flu.” The fast mutation makes the virus’ evolutionary development very hard to predict

H7N9, however, seems to have an R0 of zero, at least between humans. Scientists call this “stuttering transmission,” in which an animal virus infects a person, but further human-to-human transmission does not occur. One case, of a Chinese son contracting the disease while caring for his flu-stricken eighty-seven-year-old father, seems to be an exception. As Michael O’Leary, a W.H.O. representative in China, explained, “It’s not unexpected that if a person is sick and maybe receiving very close care, from a very close contact, that once in a while, [the disease] will pass to the other person.” The C.D.C.’s Frieden concurred: “At this point, it looks like direct contact with live poultry in China is the main risk factor.”

If there is one thing that is worrying scientists about H7N9, it’s that there is probably little preëxisting immunity to it. We’ve never had this variant before, so our bodies don’t know how to fight it. The Chinese government has made available the full genetic sequence for H7N9, and it looks as though some of H7N9’s genes are adapted to mammals, which suggests that the virus may have spent some time living and mutating in pigs before moving back to birds. (Since influenza viruses mutate pretty easily, certain genetic and antigenic properties from last year’s flu can be distinct from this year’s flu, which is why it makes sense to get a flu shot every year.) Michael O’Leary, of the W.H.O., explained that right now, H7N9 is an animal virus that occasionally infects humans. But, he said, the virus could change to make human-to-human transmission possible—though he added that there’s no evidence that it is happening so far

reply to post by soficrow


"Vaccines are the only way to prevent a pandemic. If we rely on eggs for manufacturing, we don't have a hope in hell of stopping it. The newer genetic technology is faster, but fraught with danger, imho."

Crucell, a Dutch company which was acquired I believe by J&J a few years ago does not rely on eggs for manufacturing, its PER C.6 utilizes human cells (originally from a batch of stem cells if I recall correctly). It is a reasonably safe and effective method of rapid vaccine manufacture.
That being said I always find it interesting that 'preppers' tend to fixate on thousands of rounds of ammo but I've ever heard them mention a few doses of Relenza, whereas a new virus is probably much more likely to cause major global issues than most other negative scenarios.

yeaok
One new human H7N9 avian influenza case has been confirmed.
45 have died.
1,360,500,000 is the total population of China.

Should i be worried?

only 45 have died, it doesnt sound like much when you look at it like that but considering 134 cases in china and of those cases 45 has died which is about 33.6%, so luckily its not widespread.

but then again this is china we are talking about.. going to a non private hospital there will probably increase your chances of dieing.

NowanKenubi
And of course, as always, with a death toll of 45 in less than a year, they will cry pandemic!!!!!!

Ya know.. 45 people a year out of 1.35 BILLION people is really good odds !!

I wonder why it is these things always come from China.. see the population density.. that's why. In a population that size Anything can happen as a fluke.. even a few bird strains mutating.

They rather need to tell us the population of the birds and of those the amount that has this strain - can't be done. Unless there are tons of Asian guys dropping like flies, no one is going to care about this. They have cried wolf on too many bird flu strains already.

reply to post by Counttrarian


As I said, " The newer genetic technology is faster, but fraught with danger, imho." Also, just as bacteria are developing antibiotic resistance faster than I can type, so too are viruses developing resistance to anti-virals. The few that work won't much longer. Apparently, 'resistance genes' spread horizontally and may 'infect' across species barriers.

reply to post by JohnPhoenix

They have cried wolf on too many bird flu strains already.

It's not China "crying wolf" - it's her economic and political competitors.

...Why would China draw the world's attention to anything that might affect her economic stability?

reply to post by soficrow


there is some substance to people being concerned though.

at the moment its death rate is relatively high, its infection rate luckily is quite low. of the 134 cases 45 have died so a death rate of 33.6%

the regular flu has a death rate around 0.1% but its infection rate is much higher.

should bird flu be as infectious as a normal flu then that would be trouble, luckily its not.

some other things to consider, chinese non private hospitals are not the best and some people in china cant afford treatment which could be artificially inflating the case death rate.

People talk about strains mutating and turning into an epidemic, wiping humankind. IMO, too much resident evil, got all of you brainwashed.

Shouldn't this say "China engineers" because that's what they do. China and the Chinese people are EXTREMELY evil and they don't care who they kill. They have an aerosol transmitted strain on tap for spraying over population centers that's really nasty. Seriously, they hang out with the Iranians and the North Koreans, so it tells you just were China's head is at! How do you think they control they're own population problems!!!!!!