A380 backlog shrinking

It would appear that the experiment with the super large jumbo jet has failed (or will fail). So far for 2013, Airbus has a net order book of -3 for the A380, with a number more that have cancellation clauses in their agreements, and several that may be shifted to other aircraft. They also show 5 still on order for Kingfisher, which ceased operations last year.

One of the problems is that Airbus is offering twin jets that are more attractive than the super jumbo. They would have to have 550-560 seats on an A380 to match up to an A350-1000 when it enters the market in 2017.

There is the possibility that an order for 20 aircraft could be completed this year, but it's not looking like the market is going to turn the way Airbus has been predicting for many years now.

AvWeek

reply to post by Zaphod58


Add to this that Boeing have announced its 777 Jumbo killer it looks like the market is now for monster twins with their commensurate lower costs than 4's.

Airbus's orders/deliveries page is here and includes a link to a detailed spreadsheet.

reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul


With the operating costs of a twin, and the per seat savings being what they are, I'll be surprised if we see many more four engine aircraft developed, unless it's something like the Bae-146. The age of the four engine jumbo jet has passed, thanks to advances in engine technology, and carbon fiber.

reply to post by Zaphod58


I used to work on 146's - brand spanking new ones.....and there is no particular reason for them or a similar "niche" aircraft to be 4's now either - they did not have "blown" flaps from those 4 engines to get their performance, and these days I suspect 2 more modern engines could be just as quiet.

reply to post by Aloysius the Gaul


They probably will be, but that's the last market I expect to see that's more than two engines. You'll see a few more four engine ones, I believe, but not for much longer.

reply to post by Zaphod58


I remember back in the early days of the programme Airbus talked of a twin engine version eventually emerging. I wonder if they are dusting that down?

I think any announcements of failure are premature however, I don't think anyone really thought the A380 would sell in similar numbers to the big twins, it's more of a slow burner and I can see it still being in production, albeit in relatively low volumes, in 30-40 years time and there will be plenty of them flying around.

One thing in the AvWeek article struck me as odd, that was the point about it needing to seat 550 passengers, which is more than any operators have specced. AFAIAA the 'standard' layout for the 380 is 559 seats, which would be bang on the money, with the type certificated up to 850 which offers plenty of scope for refits, demand permitting.

reply to post by waynos


I just don't see it getting the numbers needed to even break even at this point, with orders being as slow as they are. I'm not sure what the break even stands at now, but in 2006 it was 420 aircraft, and right now it looks like they aren't even going to get close to that.

They're talking about selling over 600 more aircraft in the next 20 years but with the move towards the twin designs I don't see many more four engine aircraft being in the market much longer.

reply to post by Zaphod58


In Asia there could be a market for the type as a short haul mass transport, several operators fly 747's on Domestic routes, and the economic development of Asian nations could slso fuel demand. I think this is the types best bet with modest orders coming from elsewhere. I just think there will always be a demand for very large aircraft and this will be heightened when (if) the global economy recovers, airbus would probably have to move the type upwards though to distance it further from the 777X and A350-1000, I think this is the long term goal as Airbus only last week was reported in Flight as saying "this isn't a one model programme" though they didn't expand on that.

Also, this link shows my impression was wrong

en.wikipedia.org...

Seems like a waste.

I saw Lufthansas A380 flying out of MIA either yesterday or this morning.
The different shape of the plane was immediate climbing out of the airport.
It's a big sucker.

reply to post by waynos


The problem with four engine designs though is that with the new technologies you can get almost as many people into a plane that's more efficient, with a lower seat per mile cost, that's easier to maintain. You don't really need a four engine design anymore to do the things you did before, and the airlines are seeing that.

You see 747s on short haul flights but how many of them are packed full. You can fit a lot of people on a 747 domestic variant, but you can get within 100 or so on some of the newer twins.

I love the four engine design, always have. But do you really need to have four engines, when you have two that can go as far, or farther, cheaper?

reply to post by grey580


Yeah, it's immediately obvious that it's an A380.

reply to post by Zaphod58


With the upper limit for a twin currently being about 440 passengers, I can't see any point in going for a four around that level, other than perhaps a more spacious, premium service utilising the larger cabin space and utilising luxury to sell at premium prices, similar to BA's transatanlic A318's. Other than that though , despite what many believe, I still think there will always be a demand for a larger higher capacity aircraft and that currently means 4 engines. This is likely to be a slow and steady demand, but the longer it stays in production, obviously, the closer to break even it will get. I'm not saying it WILL get there, I just think it has more of a chance than most are giving it.

I suppose the next two years will tell if 2013 was just a bad year or if demand has dried up.

reply to post by waynos


I just don't see a demand for planes with over about 400 people or so. I don't see the spoke and hub system going away for awhile or for large high capacity aircraft the size of the A380.

In a related note, Boeing is slowing 747-8 production from just under 2 aircraft a month to 1.5 aircraft a month through 2015. They're just over halfway through the production of aircraft on the order list.

Facing weakened demand for big passenger and freight aircraft, Boeing has opted to reduce the 747-8 production rate from 1.75 aircraft per month to 1.5 through 2015.

The move comes as the company passes the half way point of its accumulated order backlog for the aircraft, the vast majority of which are for the freighter model. To date, the 747-8 has accumulated 107 orders, 56 of which have been delivered.

747-8

Ah the thread seems like old times.

Shall we venture back into the issue of government aide? LOL

The fate of the A380 will be tied to the fate of long haul operators like Emirates which have no short haul routes to worry about. Its no coincidence that they have the most on order and operate the biggest fleet Thier hub and route structure are well suited to a mix of long range twins and the A380 hence the fleet mix of A330 and 777 with them phasing out the A340's . I dont think they ever operating 747 except in cargo configurations.

Some of the orders are sketchy as well like those from Kingfisher, Virgin, Luftansa cut 3 I think, Air Austral, and a few others. I doubt that the airframe will ever break even but I agree with Waynos that the line will churn on for a while.

Boeing is facing the the same fate with the 747-8 and has resorted to huge discounts and buying -400 at inflated prices to sell the model. Lets face it 4 engine long haul airframes are DOA they just havent claimed the body yet.

FredT
Lets face it 4 engine long haul airframes are DOA they just havent claimed the body yet.

This is the point I was going for with this thread. Let's just leave the past in the old dead threads.

reply to post by Zaphod58


Don't get me wrong chaps. I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying about 4 engine airliners, I'm sure we won't see another one at all. Conversely, it's the small trickle of demand for such aircraft that I think will keep the A380 going simply because it is significantly bigger than anything else. I think the 747-8 is too close to the 777-8 (go on, I bet) to make sense.

reply to post by waynos


Could it be, reading between the lines, that Aurbus themselves are starting to think along similar lines as Zap's OP?

This report here mentions how they are in the very preliminary stages of studying growth of the A350 beyond the -1000 series model, though they are naturally playing it down for the time being.

www.flightglobal.com... 00000taAh

Report on the BBC claims that Emirates want 50 more 380's

The Dubai airline Emirates wants 50 more Airbus A380 superjumbos, in deal said to be worth £14.2bn. Airbus says that order will protect 2,500 jobs at its UK bases in Flintshire and Bristol.

BBC

reply to post by solidshot


There are expected to be several big orders this week from the Dubai show.