H7N9 so it begins Human to Human

just when you thought it was to safe to fly or be around birds this comes to light h7n9-bird-flu-likely-china-spread-between-people-researchers-find
www.nbcnews.com... from the link

The new bird flu virus, which was unknown in humans until February, has so far infected at least 133 people in China and Taiwan, killing 43 of them, according to the latest World Health Organization (WHO) data.

Most cases have been in people who had visited live poultry markets or had close contact with live poultry in seven to 10 days before falling ill.

what is the time of infection till death ? from the link

The BMJ study, lead by Chang-jun Bao at the Jiangsu Province Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, analyzed a family cluster of two H7N9 patients - a father and daughter - in Eastern China in March 2013.

The first "index" patient - a 60-year-old man - regularly went to a live poultry market and became ill five to six days after his last exposure to poultry.

He was admitted to hospital on March 11. When his symptoms became worse, he was transferred to an intensive care unit (ICU) on March 15 but died of multi-organ failure on May 4, the study reported.

so what is the big deal you ask, this is old news , er no it is not from the link

H7N9 bird flu in likely China spread between people, researchers find
Kate Kelland Reuters

8 hours ago

LONDON - The first scientific analysis of probable human-to-human transmission of a deadly new strain of bird flu that emerged in China this year gives the strongest evidence yet that the H7N9 virus can pass between people, scientists said on Wednesday.

Research published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) analyzing a family cluster of cases of H7N9 infection in eastern China found it was very likely the virus "transmitted directly from the index patient (a 60-year-old man) to his daughter."

Experts commenting on the research said while it did not necessarily mean H7N9 is any closer to becoming the next flu pandemic, "it does provide a timely reminder of the need to remain extremely vigilant."

so what happened to the daughter??

The second patient, his healthy 32-year-old daughter, had no known exposure to live poultry but provided direct bedside care for her father in the hospital before he went to intensive care.

She developed symptoms six days after her last contact with her father and went into hospital on March 24. She was moved to the ICU on March 28 and died of multi-organ failure on April 24.

Strains of the virus isolated from samples taken from each patient were "almost genetically identical" - a strong suggestion that the virus was transmitted directly from father to daughter, the researchers said.

time to watch I am Legend once more, make that a double feature.... 28 days later.
modes if this be in the wrong thread , you know what to do and where to put it.

...found it was very likely the virus "transmitted directly from the index patient (a 60-year-old man) to his daughter."

She probably also did his laundry. Virus on his clothing would be an "also just as very likely" vector.

Human to human transmission not confirmed...

My wife thinks im crazy. Of all the end of the world scearios I believe a superbug is the most likely and believable. There are so many bugs out there that do the nastiest stuff. I even went so far as to buy us both NBC suits and gas masks and resporaitors. They are packed up just in case. Im not even what people call a prepper , just Better off safe than sorry.

reply to post by intrptr



Virus don't have spores.

And ya know, and i am being very gentle here...
She wiped her father's butt for awhile.

Admittedly i hope my own children love and respect me enough to do that when i am in need of it.
(Or they are at least rich enough to hire a foxy nurse to do it for me.)

I don't care how i go kids, just make sure the woman watching over me in my final hours is DD.

Originally posted by th3dudeabides
reply to post by intrptr

 

Virus don't have spores.

Thankyou, I stand corrected.

Only one way to avoid P to P infections...Avoid People.

Seriously, my contact with other stinky infested humans is kept to a minimum, i never seem to get the cold, the flu etc...i go as far as walking everywhere, public transport..Bah...breading ground for all sorts.

reply to post by intrptr

if that is not human to human then what is?? any contact form one human to an other.... touch, breath, fecal matter, pee, or sweet, kissing, can and will spread viruses. so lets say she took care of him therefore bathed him, kissed him on his fore head , washed his undies and sheets put cool rages on his forehead. breathed the same air as him, and feed him, thus washing his dishes with hers. laundry the same. now being in China and most likely in a rural area this was done , the washing that is... in a stream ,

reply to post by bekod

if that is not human to human then what is??

Over there these cases always begin with direct contact with birds. Workers, handlers, butchers, whatever get the virus on them directly from the birds, not other people. People get it from the birds or from people that have direct contact with the birds.

This can appear like the beginnings of an outbreak if a bunch of people working in the same poultry farm all contract it from a bunch of sick birds. Then you get what appears to be a sudden onset of a plague. Large poultry farms over there are labor intensive. Everyone there is quarantined, treated or dies and all the birds killed. The farm is disinfected.

For the virus to spread outward from there in a larger outbreak, the virus would have to mutate inside the human host into a variant that is transmissible between humans. Then we got a problem. Thing is, those mutations across species are rare and it has not happened in this variant... yet. If it did we would know about it thru the CDC.

But don't hold your breath, every time a virus replicates there is the possibility of a "cha-ching" mutation and there are only a gazillion replications occurring anywhere on the planet at any given time. The more people and birds, the more direct contact, the more odds that one day it will happen. And not just there or with that particular virus.

The clock is ticking.

(sorry if I am not being clear enough... its late here.)

How would we know if there was any fowl play involved here, or whether it was just nature's way of thinning out the competition? Are natural viruses easily distinguishable from artificially created ones?

I'm really looking forward to them releasing that virus. It will whip out most people. But somehow I'll be one of the last survivors. And I'll be forced to live the adventure of trying to make it in a world after the apocalypse. It will be an interesting time that's for sure.

Forty-three close contacts of both cases were interviewed by public health officials and tested for influenza virus. Of these, one (a son in law who helped care for the father) had mild illness, but all contacts tested negative for H7N9 infection.

So does this imply that H7N9 has come one step closer towards adapting fully to humans, ask James Rudge and Richard Coker from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, based in Bangkok, in an accompanying editorial?
Probably not, they say. Limited transmission between humans "is not surprising, and does not necessarily indicate that the virus is on course to develop sustained transmission among humans."

Source

I guess we'll have to wait for SHTF, but make no mistake, superbugs are coming

Originally posted by Soloprotocol
Only one way to avoid P to P infections...Avoid People.

Seriously, my contact with other stinky infested humans is kept to a minimum, i never seem to get the cold, the flu etc...i go as far as walking everywhere, public transport..Bah...breading ground for all sorts.

I wouldn't go up to some sick person and allow myself to get a good cough in the face, but isolation from viral infections in the general population isn't a good idea.

When you have been isolated from other people for a period of months, your immune system weakens. After a longer period of time, contact with any infection could be deadly due to a weakened immune system.

ETA: My advice is to watch what you eat, get lots of daily exercise, maintain a healthy weight and keep healthy. You will be able to fight off most colds with little problems if you stay healthy. Don't be a shut in or a hermit to avoid getting sick.

What the hell do they keep doing to their birds in China to keep causing these outbreaks???

I guess we'll have to wait for SHTF, but make no mistake, superbugs are coming

Certainly is one of the more realistic SHTF scenarios....a pandemic.

We are creating superbugs with our constant overuse of antimicrobials. Unnatural chemistry makes organisms that can change faster, short generation turnaround, evolve faster than those with long generation turnover. Another words, we are causing our own demise.

I am pretty sure that our stupidity will cause 90 percent of all humans to die along with other species in the world. Well, this is better than us destroying the earth with the unnaturally concentrated pollution we create. So what happens with all the nuclear weapons when this happens? What happens with all the toxic nuclear dumps we have started. Sooner or later they will come back to cause problems to the survivors.

reply to post by Gazrok

Unlike here in the West, people in Asia have much closer contact with the birds living or dead than we do. Our fowl factories are automated, mostly. The whole process being sanitized and refrigidated all the way to the store shelf.

In Asia more contact with live animals is prevalent. People buy live chickens at the market (fresh). In a land of warmer climes this makes up for the lack of refrigeration and spoilage due to transport. People slaughter their own animals more which brings them into direct contact with any live viruses. Viruses can survive outside the host longer in warmer environments and blood and feathers can carry the virus long enough to infect people.

Thats why we keep hearing about bird to human transmission and why the overall risk of infection or a pandemic is greater.

Center for Disease Control (CDC)

Transmission

Mutations

reply to post by intrptr
yea I know the late feeling, I get your point now. just one thing would CDC or WOW let us know H7N9 or any other HN is now human to human or would they keep it to them selves, or would it be a day or 2 before they say? www.cdc.gov... from the link

2012-2013 Influenza Season Week 30 ending July 27, 2013

All data are preliminary and may change as more reports are received.

U.S. Virologic Surveillance:

WHO and NREVSS collaborating laboratories located in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. report to CDC the number of respiratory specimens tested for influenza and the number positive by influenza type and subtype. Region specific data are available at gis.cdc.gov...

this is also form the link

Novel Influenza A Viruses:

One additional infection with influenza A (H3N2) variant (H3N2v) virus was reported to CDC during week 30 by Illinois. A total of 15 H3N2v cases have been reported this summer (Illinois [1], Indiana [13], and Ohio [1]). No hospitalizations or deaths have occurred. At this time no ongoing human-to-human transmission has been identified and all 15 cases have reported close contact with swine in the week prior to illness onset. Public health and agriculture officials are investigating the extent of disease among humans and swine, and additional cases may be identified as the investigation continues.

well the bugs er virus will win some day, just a matter of when.

reply to post by intrptr


This seems like a movie you're talking about. Is it really too late?

Originally posted by Gazrok
What the hell do they keep doing to their birds in China to keep causing these outbreaks???

I guess we'll have to wait for SHTF, but make no mistake, superbugs are coming

Certainly is one of the more realistic SHTF scenarios....a pandemic.

edit on 7-8-2013 by Gazrok because: (no reason given)

From what I've read, and I really wish I could find it again...it was in a post here a few months ago...a lot of the problem is how "Big Poultry" feeds anti-biotics and anti-virals to the birds to keep them alive long enough to kill and sell. Apparently Amantadine was so overused that the flu viruses are mostly immune to it now and we're stuck with the more expensive and harder to produce Tamiflu.

reply to post by bekod

just one thing would CDC or WOW let us know H7N9 or any other HN is now human to human or would they keep it to them selves, or would it be a day or 2 before they say?

Sorry for the delay. Yah, they would let us know. Thats the Thing about the CDC. They are the go to agency for identifying strains of virus and bacteria. They don't lie and they don't withhold information. Thats why they have this impeccable reputation in the first place. Because of their integrity. If they did cheat or get things wrong, they wouldn't be the go to agency.

I get where your coming from about lying. They would tell the US Government first and the government may want to keep information secret, but its not up to the government. Its up to the CDC. There are other accredited labs around the world too. Each in turn would want samples of anything new or suddenly more virulent. Each would also discover and publish their results. So there would be this consensus among them and if they were directed to keep it quiet they would leak it . They are doctors after all and are bound by the Hypocratic oath. Besides which, they care about people more than governments. Thats why they work diseases. They want to find cures and help stop plagues if they can.

The first step is to receive a sample of tissue or germs. Viruses are so infinitesimally small (100,000 virus "cells" could fit on the period at the end of this sentence.) It requires expensive electron microscopes and a trained eye to differentiate between which strain is which. Since many are similar looking they will usually resort to culturing to make sure. This takes days and involves petri dishes and black lights and light filters and color tests and... you see?

Even then, if it is a new virus or variant there may be no anti viral medicine worked up for it. Old stocks of vaccine for known plagues may have expired or lapsed. That could take months. Any virus is 48 hours from anywhere on the globe by airliner.

It is also extremely rare for a major outbreak to occur. The odds are going up, but hasn't happened in a long time.

What is more disconcerting to my mind is the actual intentional release potential by disgruntled / terror / crazy whatever, persons of a real weaponized virulent strain of BIO Warfare disease. There are a number of those lying around. As long as good intentions prevail (The 911 Anthrax letters not withstanding) we should be alright.

For now...