New Zealand - Great Alpine Fault Earthquake Talks

Potentially, but it also depends on how much stress/strain builds up and also how much stress/strain is removed by action on other faults.
Is it still forming, in that it has already formed, but I guess you could say that any fault is still forming?

reply to post by aorAki


New Zealand quake rips new fault in earth

www.nbcnews.com...

Christchurch shaken by another new fault line

www.newscientist.com...

New, as in previously unknown, not new as in newly formed.
Trust me, I know
Dr Mark Quigley, in the NBC article said it looked like a new fault, however, after investigation he has determined that it was a previously unrecognised fault.
It comes down to funding, for finding faults. It's easier to get money to investigate 'known' faults because the strike rate is better, and when employing various surveys, such as the seismic surveys I have worked on investigating the Alpine, Ostler, Springfield and Edgecumbe Faults, good science can still be undertaken.
The problem with recognising the faults that affected Christchurch was that our landscapes had been highly modified and so any previous trace of surface ruptures were no longer evident.

I editted my comment to add meaning.
Seeing as Mark Quigley, Tim Davies, Jarg Pettinga are my work colleagues, trust me, I know

Click here for more information.

reply to post by aorAki


Anyway "if "you are that person you should be only shame of yourself for not warned people at Christchurch area or predict stronger activity anytime or even one time etc, that should be your job for what you paid not some amateurs ..

Also that what you are you talking about is totally irrelevant for stronger activity or present - future earthquake prediction and you do not even understand that, oh my ..

I see ..... it is easiest to say "earthquakes can't be predicted" let's play with some data or bla - bla about similar and put money in pocket from taxes of ordinary working people and live long and prosper ..

It is same as I have a Ferrari in my garage and do not know how to drive and not even aware of it etc ..

Uh, you just don't seem to understand the vagaries of earthquake prediction, that is, that you can not predict them far enough ahead of time to be able to warn people, so I feel no shame, especially because we were all unaware of the potential locally in Canterbury. However, due to the fact that there will be a large, severe earthquake on the Alpine Fault, in some location, at some point in time it is best practice for people to be prepared with their own disaster response kits.
I can assure you that we do not just 'pocket' the money and live happily ever after. We do invest that money into equipment and resources that can aid our understanding and data processing etc.
To say we should have warned people is to be ignorant of the ongoing campaigns that have, for many years, warned people about the likelihood of a significant tectonic event negatively impacting our lives.

I was going to commend you for having data going for the area, but no way now. I can't believe how poorly you treat everyone who deigns to post in your threads. Absolutely vile attitude, and embarrassing to have reflect on the forum. You couldn't even take what aorAki said as someone with literal work experience in the field with any sense of respect, you had to be an arse about it.
Just pack it up here and start a blog if you want reader sycophancy.

reply to post by Nyiah

I trying to predict eartquekes also to learn people about similar so I post that on public forums ..

I'm here "only" because of that ..

But you are all here for some other reasons ..


If you and others do not like me or my work I will leave that's no problem for me, anyway have to much obligation and like I see only losing time here or bother you ..

Thought I was learning you something but looks that I was boring ..

I'm out from this, also let's see what you or similar predict accurate and how you will help people in future or when comes eartquekes "hard time " ..

Good luck ..

Tnx and greetings for some friendly members here

reply to post by Nyiah


Absolutely 100% agree with you Nyiah, Maria, this isn't the way to get your 'predictions' noted - no one will even visit your 'prediction' threads if you continue to treat everyone that has an input as poorly as you do. This is one of MANY threads I have seen you belittle and just be plain rude to posters, some of whom have spent a LOT of years sacrificing time and energy researching these topics. We are all here because this interests us, why would you put them down, when you may in fact learn more in a healthy debate?

Have some respect, and you might find others will spare some for you also.

Originally posted by bkaust
reply to post by Nyiah

 

Absolutely 100% agree with you Nyiah, Maria, this isn't the way to get your 'predictions' noted - no one will even visit your 'prediction' threads if you continue to treat everyone that has an input as poorly as you do. This is one of MANY threads I have seen you belittle and just be plain rude to posters, some of whom have spent a LOT of years sacrificing time and energy researching these topics. We are all here because this interests us, why would you put them down, when you may in fact learn more in a healthy debate?

Have some respect, and you might find others will spare some for you also.

You just don't get it and I wrote that many times, first here is 05:14 and I lost all night because of noting ..

Second at least 11 people killed in China earthquake what happen when i wrote all of this ..

I did not see pre-signals and did not monitoring because some repeating posts etc ..

Third I working in 3 hrs and my English is very bad ..

Also I did not say is new fault created at Christchurch other scientist say it a new fault line and you can use Google for that also have some info in first posts, I don't have time for some repeating post staff what is already written many times ..

I'm here to give you something more important from nice writing etc but we do not understand each other very different frequency ..

Ok no problem I'm out from this forum and earthquake prediction etc ..

ATTENTION!

The topic of this thread is New Zealand - Great Alpine Fault Earthquake Talks.

The topic of this thread is not who is boring or who is bored or any other such prattle.

Stick to the topic.

TheRedneck
ATS Forum Moderator

Originally posted by MariaLida
Last days we have some stronger seizmic activity in New Zealand, so I will post some info about situation there ..

Think soon in time ahead probably in this years there will come some stronger earthquake of M 7.4 + and much possibility for "The Big One" of M 8.0 + on fault in north-west side of south island probably around Milford Sound area ..

Well, it could be this year, or next year, or today, or in ten years time. There really is no way of determining it as of yet.

Milford Sound is on the South West side of the South Island, just for clarification.

Originally posted by MariaLidaLast EQ of M 8.0+ was in 1717 AD, that's before 296 years ..

geology.gsapubs.org...

The 1717 event had a moment magnitude of Mw 8.1 ± 0.1, based on the 380-km-long surface rupture. Because the fault has not ruptured for ∼300 yr, it is likely approaching the end of its seismic cycle and poses a significant seismic hazard to New Zealand.

Yes, it has long been known to be a significant seismic hazard for New Zealand.

Originally posted by MariaLidaThe next earthquake centred on the Alpine Fault should begin in South Westland and will probably have a magnitude of 8+.

The historical patterns of earthquakes and current research on the alpine fault indicate that it is likely to rupture very soon.

The odds are, as has been known for some time, that there is likely to be a significant event in the near future. In geologic time, this can be in the order of decades to hundreds of years. However, being able to determine when that will be is impossible at the present. Earthquakes cannot be predicted with any reasonable temporal warning as of yet.

Some interesting links:

www.bssaonline.org...

Strata and fault relationships revealed in five trenches excavated across the recent trace of the Alpine fault at the Haast, Okuru, and Turnbull Rivers, South Westland, New Zealand, record the three most recent surface‐faulting events...... The most recent surface‐rupture event was probably in A.D. 1717, and the next prior events were about A.D. 1230±50 and about A.D.750±50...... Our three‐event dataset indicates the average surface‐rupture recurrence interval for the South Westland section of the fault is about 480 years, much longer than the current elapsed time of 295 years. Therefore, the Alpine fault in South Westland may not be close to rupture as is often speculated.

Given the recurrence interval of c. 480 years, this hazard may not be as imminent as some think. The Geo Scientists involved in this study have much collective knowledge and are better equipped to determine the likelihood of rupture by using robust science rather than the vagaries of pseudo-scientific (to be charitable) predictions.

geology.gsapubs.org...

The low-permeability rocks suggest that dynamic pressurization likely promotes earthquake slip, and motivates the hypothesis that fault zones may be regional barriers to fluid flow and sites of high fluid pressure gradient.

Some of the fault gouge was analysed in my lab on the particle lasersizer, as well in colleagues labs using a variety of equipment and tests. The findings at this stage appear to be robust and indicate the importance of understanding the kinematics of fine (clay) particles and their interaction with fluids to contribute to pressurisation, permeability and slip rates.

www.gns.cri.nz... ce-Topics/Earthquakes/Major-Faults-in-New-Zealand/Alpine-Fault

The Alpine Fault has a high probability (estimated at 30%) of rupturing in the next 50 years. The rupture will produce one of the biggest earthquakes since European settlement of New Zealand, and it will have a major impact on the lives of many people. In between earthquakes, the Alpine Fault is locked. All these things mean that the Alpine Fault is a globally significant geological structure.

As previously said, it is known to be a significant geologic hazard. The best thing we can do, and there has been an advertising campaign regarding this for many years, is to be prepared.

reply to post by aorAki


"Some of the fault gouge was analysed in my lab on the particle lasersizer, as well in colleagues labs using a variety of equipment and tests. The findings at this stage appear to be robust and indicate the importance of understanding the kinematics of fine (clay) particles and their interaction with fluids to contribute to pressurisation, permeability and slip rates. ",,,,,,,,,,,

did u heat it?

Originally posted by BobAthome


did u heat it?

For the particle size analysis, which i was involved in, no we didn't.

reply to post by aorAki

Estimate the weight ,,movement, and throw in natural temp analysis at those depths,,assuming temp would have to be very great,, friction,,,
redo stats,,,might be interesting in the clay /temp, breakdown.

reply to post by BobAthome


Yes, we have machines (sorry, drinking so names escape me at present and not my 'domain' as such as another looks after those...I'm just a lowly sedimentologist/palaeolontologist ) that account from pressure, but heat not as much as yet, though it is known that materials behave in certain ways under different stress/strain/temperature regimes.