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Prediction: Russia Will Trade Snowdon For Viktor Bout

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posted on Jul, 3 2013 @ 02:21 PM
It is clear to me that Edward Snowdon is in Russia because "interests" in the United States have manoeuvered him into that country. These interests do not, despite public bleatings to the contrary, want him arrested. They are using him to embarass the Obama administration. In the words of the McDonald's commercial, they are "lovin' it".

It has been stated that Russia never extradites anyone. They only do "exchanges". Obama, to the Russians is the least of numerous American evils. They have been extremely polite about the Snowdon situation and have taken pains to show complete respect for their "American partners", while continuing to hold their cards close to the chest.

I think they are almost ready for a "lay down" of the hand. I think they will exchange Snowdon for Viktor Bout, currently serving a 25 year sentence in the US.

Russia had tried to prevent his extradition from Thailand to the US but failed. They have outstanding interests in this case. Maybe they are about to get the resolution they originally wanted.

Would Russia exchange Edward Snowdon for Viktor Bout? I think they would and I predict that they will.

There is some confusion regarding Bout's military career although it is clear that he served in the Soviet Armed Forces. . . .

Bout's personal website states that he served in the Soviet Army as a translator, holding the rank of Lieutenant.[6] He is thought to have been discharged in 1991 with the rank of Lieutenant Colonel.[24] But other sources state he rose to the rank of Major in the GRU[7] (an arm of the Soviet military that combines intelligence services and special forces[7]), that he was an officer in the Soviet Air Forces,[9] that he graduated from a Soviet military intelligence training program,[24] or that he was a KGB operative.[20]

It is thought that Bout was of help to Russia's intelligence agencies,[4] and he is alleged to have connections to ranking Russian officials, including Igor Sechin.[56] The language institute Bout attended has been linked to the GRU, one such agency.[25][54][57] Bout allegedly worked alongside GRU-affiliated, and current Russian deputy prime minister, Igor Sechin in Africa in the 1980s,[29][58] although both men deny this allegation.[29] According to a 2002 United Nations report, Bout's father-in-law Zuiguin "at one point held a high position in the KGB, perhaps even as high as a deputy chairman".[25]

On November 18, 2010, shortly after Bout's extradition to the United States, Russian President Medvedev's aide Sergei Eduardovich Prikhodko said that Russia had "nothing to hide" in Bout's criminal case, stating, "it is in our interest that the investigation ... be brought to completion, and [Bout] should answer all the questions the American justice system has."[73][74] On January 18, 2013, Russian government officials announced that “judges, investigators, justice ministry officials and special services agents who were involved in Russian citizens Viktor Bout’s and Konstantin Yaroshenko’s legal prosecution and sentencing to long terms of imprisonment” would be added to the "Guantanamo list" of U.S. officials who will be denied Russian entry visas, in response for the U.S. "Magnitsky Act", under which certain Russian officials are ineligible to enter the United States.[75]

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edit on 3-7-2013 by ipsedixit because: (no reason given)

posted on Jul, 3 2013 @ 02:31 PM
You might actually be right on the outcome. I don't think there were 'dark forces' in action to make this all happen this way. I think Snowden was running scared and looking for anywhere on this Planet he could sleep and be sure he'd not only wake up again, but wake up in the same nation he went to sleep. Russia fit the bill like almost nowhere else right now.

Still.... Seeing as how he did end up in Putin's lap like a Christmas Present ..and Obama does want Snowden VERY VERY VERY badly (You don't order other nations to basically Kidnap the President of Bolivia on a 'maybe' to be wrong....for someone you don't care much Putin may see it end that way.

The question is...does Obama care so little for the GRU man and want Snowden SO badly, that he'd trade one for the other? Contrary to Snowden's apparently naive view of the world (20 rejection letters from places he thought would be friendly, speaks volumes) I think the world leaders would deal him off like a bad pair in a card game ...if the stakes are high enough. Victor Bout a high enough raise to call a Snowden as the pot?

posted on Jul, 3 2013 @ 02:38 PM
reply to post by Wrabbit2000

Wierd as this sounds, Bout may actually have friends in the US Army. On the world stage one might think of him as "Arms dealer to the Hatfields" while opposite numbers in the Army or their associates might be considered "Arms Dealers to the McCoys".

Neither arms dealer wants anyone to win. They just want them to keep fighting.

I think Snowdon is primarily a political problem for Obama, not an intelligence problem. I think he is a low grade know nothing who ran off with what was on someone's desktop, in effect.

Snowdon is a big political problem for Obama and Bout is very, very well connected in Russia. I think there is a deal there to be made.

edit on 3-7-2013 by ipsedixit because: (no reason given)

posted on Jul, 3 2013 @ 02:40 PM
Double Post.
edit on 3-7-2013 by ipsedixit because: (no reason given)

posted on Jul, 3 2013 @ 03:35 PM
Nice catch OP!

I don't know if your correct on the name - but I certainly think you have just uncovered a 'method', the deeper 'agenda'.

Don't quote me - but I think it was Dr. Peter Beter who said "Never trust the obvious".

We can assume that what ever is going on on the TV if far from what the reality is.

I like your use of the term "Interests" - I like to call the 'Zions'.

posted on Jul, 3 2013 @ 04:20 PM
There is a brief audio tape broadcast on Webster Tarpley's website summing up his thoughts on Snowdon, that was put up today.

Although Tarpley doesn't mention Brig. Gen. Frank Kitson's book, Low Intensity Operations specifically in this broadcast, he does allude to the concept of the "countergang" as a mask for a military objective.

What is going on with Assange and Snowdon is the operation of a "countergang". Tarpley believes these people are parts of a "limited hangout" operation designed to spill a bean or two and take up a lot of press space and raise a lot of heat while shedding little or no light on what the US State Department is really up to.

Personally, I think these people are dupes. I don't think they are good enough actors to fool people in a duplicitous way. (You'd need Christopher Plummer or Anthony Hopkins for that.) I think they have been steered into position by the professional intelligence people trying to get the US deeper into Syria, while occupying the world's attention with fake "revelations".

Here is a brief statement of Tarpley's criteria for spotting a fake leaker:

1. Snowdon, and Assange and Ellsberg before him become immediate media stars. Real leakers, people like Binney, with a lot of inside info, you never hear of. Hastings dies in extreme circumstances.

2. The fake leaker doesn't leak much, if anything, that wasn't out there already.

3. The fake leaker doesn't tell us anything about the most damaging episodes in recent history like the JFK assassination, 9/11 and others. Assange derides 9/11 truthers.

4. The fake leaker leaks information that is actually innocuous or makes the State Department seem like a relatively benign institution guilty of minor peccadillos, as if the worst thing said about John Gotti was that he routinely double parked on Mulberry Street.

5. There is a "road to Damascus" style conversion where the fake leaker often changes from warmongering intelligence agency insider to peacenik.

This kind of conversion is, of course, not impossible in the real world, but certainly would be rare, except among fake leakers where it forms part of a repeating pattern. Both Ellsberg and Snowdon were deep inside the military/intelligence envelope when they emerged as peaceniks.

The political dimension to this is that Snowdon has been puffed up in the media to gigantic proportions. This over valuation of someone who is a very low grade piece of merchandise presents an opportunity to Russia and to Obama to make a trade for Viktor Bout look like an even trade, when in fact it will be quite a steal for Russia.

That will be a neat chess move against the anti-Obama faction who are responsible for that gross over valuation of the importance of Snowdon.

It will be a steal for Russia and a political steal for Obama against his enemies "within".
edit on 3-7-2013 by ipsedixit because: (no reason given)

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posted on Jul, 3 2013 @ 04:55 PM

Originally posted by ipsedixit
Assange and Ellsberg before him become immediate media stars.

Assange isn't a leaker. WL is a publishing medium for leakers. Totally different thing. Not only that WL secures the real leakers anonymity. So that doesn't apply at all. It is the job of WL and the whole point to be in media as much as possible and JA as the spokes person is just that A spokes person. They do their best to get maximum coverage.

3. The fake leaker doesn't tell us anything about the most damaging episodes in recent history like the JFK assassination, 9/11 and others. Assange derides 9/11 truthers.

JA doesn't deny anything. You are just plain out lying here.
edit on 3/7/2013 by PsykoOps because: (no reason given)

posted on Jul, 3 2013 @ 05:19 PM
Something bugging me for long time about this type of new trend…

Russian government is as corrupt as US government, me think that they wanted to (leak information) intentionally in that way, I suspect that those (leaked info) are either too old to bother or has a lot of disinformation to counter perhaps (wikileak).

Sorry, in a world that a MOSSAD agents knows in advance that what will be your underwear colour a week ahead, then I truly distrust this type of hypes. They could just kill the guy in 1001 ways and get on with it if the information were worthy to protect.

Something bigger than this are behind the curtain, we should wait and see.

edit on 3-7-2013 by amkia because: edited to add... sowwwy

posted on Jul, 3 2013 @ 05:32 PM

Originally posted by PsykoOps

Originally posted by ipsedixit
Assange and Ellsberg before him become immediate media stars.

Assange isn't a leaker. WL is a publishing medium for leakers. Totally different thing.

"Totally different thing." If you say so, but leaving that aside, Tarpley's point is valid. He thinks that wikileaks is a limited hangout operation along the lines described.

JA doesn't deny anything. You are just plain out lying here.

I guess you missed this. From a 2010 interview with the Belfast Telegraph.

What about 9/11? "I'm constantly annoyed that people are distracted by false conspiracies such as 9/11, when all around we provide evidence of real conspiracies, for war or mass financial fraud."

And just for your information, I never plain out lie in this forum. Never.

posted on Jul, 3 2013 @ 05:40 PM
It's really simple. Assange isn't a leaker. He doesn't have access to info and then leak it. He receives leaked information and publishes it. Also I dont care what this person thinks. If he can actually provide verifiable evidence then I'll look it up.

I guess you missed this. From a 2010 interview with the Belfast Telegraph.

What about 9/11? "I'm constantly annoyed that people are distracted by false conspiracies such as 9/11, when all around we provide evidence of real conspiracies, for war or mass financial fraud."

And just for your information, I never plain out lie in this forum. Never.

No didn't miss it. I guess you missed what words actually mean? He says "by false conspiracies" which is factually true since 911 people dont have any evidence for their cause. He never says there isn't a conspiracy or deny anything.

posted on Jul, 3 2013 @ 05:41 PM
reply to post by PsykoOps

We'll just have to agree to disagree.


posted on Jul, 3 2013 @ 07:07 PM
The merchant of death? Why would Russia want him back? Whatever he had to spill he spilled.

posted on Jul, 3 2013 @ 07:12 PM

Originally posted by Merinda
The merchant of death? Why would Russia want him back? Whatever he had to spill he spilled.

I think he's related to some important spook in Russia. I'd go over it again but it's easier to suggest that you reread the OP.

posted on Jul, 3 2013 @ 07:38 PM
Well Russian Politicians and Oligarchs are even more resistant to revelations about themselves than their present day American counterparts. Somebody close to Putin or Putin himself would need to want Bout back incountry badly for the project that is getting bout back to Russia even being on the table.

posted on Jul, 3 2013 @ 07:54 PM
reply to post by Merinda
I don't think Russia will hang on to Snowdon. In Russia he's an unnecessary irritant to US/Russia relations.

They have only two choices that I can see. Assist him to some country that can handle US pressure, or, exchange him for a Russian held in the US.

I think only one of these choices is realistic. I think they will return him to the US in exchange for someone. I think it will be Bout. Russia tried to prevent the US from getting him from Thailand.

Bout is a well connected tool of the Russian military and intelligence services. I don't think they will leave him stranded in the US if they can get him out.

The question is whether the US will do the deal.

I think they might do it in a staggered manner. Not an obvious exchange but a return of Snowdon followed by a return of Bout down the road, perhaps a drastically reduced sentence. It won't look like an exchange but, in fact, it will be one.

edit on 3-7-2013 by ipsedixit because: (no reason given)

posted on Jul, 5 2013 @ 10:13 AM
It seems that Snowdon has not stepped out into the limelight of adulation, undoubtedly prepared for him in Moscow by benign, apolitical NGOs working in every way to improve Russian life.

No, he is believed to be secreted somewhere at Sheremetyevo Airport according to the Washington Post:

It would appear that Russian authorities are taking care to keep him away from the media, so that interests in Russia don't have the opportunity to turn him into a local political football.

That indicates to me that Snowdon will be exchanged for someone in the very near future.

The following excerpt from the Post article is the ordinary Russian's view of the situation. I think it lends credence to the idea that Snowdon may have been manoeuvered into going to Russia.

Russians are a little bemused at all that fuss over surveillance. Many believe that the authorities can read their mail at will, listen in on their calls and sprinkle bugs around as they please.

“Wiretapping is so common, so this is not news,” said Alina Gorchakova, a 48-year-old account manager who stopped to chat on a city street.

What doesn’t seem normal to many is why Snowden decided to go to Ecuador, his original destination, through Russia. Once he arrived here, with his U.S. passport revoked, Ecuador has grown less enthusiastic. Russia says he can go anywhere he likes — he just needs a destination and authorized travel documents. So why doesn’t he go? Or show his face?

And Svetlana Chibisova, a 45-year-old tour agency manager, found it strange that an American carrying U.S. secrets would travel by way of Russia, where security agencies are very much in control.

“I don’t understand what he was thinking,” she said. “Is he a little boy with no idea about the consequences?”

This is turning into a three sided game of chess.

On one side you have Russia, led by Putin, whose course will be strictly pragmatic. His problem: how to navigate through this Snowdon business, avoiding potholes, (like the liberty/free press issue in Russia and pissing off America) in order to emerge with a gain of some sort (prestige, limelight, doing Obama a favor, getting Bout back "for his father in law").

On the other side you have the Obama faction in the US, led by the President, besieged by backstabbers at home, looking for a quick way to put an end to the Snowdon embarrassment (and put a shiv into the plans of the third player).

On the third side you have elements in the oligarchy, the military and the "intelligence community" who don't like Obama's policies and who want him gone or the policies changed and are doing all in their power to get their way. These are the folks who I believe, arranged for Snowdon to be where he is now.

The last group mentioned is the odd man out in this situation. Neither of the other two "players" in the game has any interest in assisting them.

For this "deep" reason, I think Snowdon will be back in the US soon and Bout will follow along to Russia either right away or in the near future.

edit on 5-7-2013 by ipsedixit because: (no reason given)

posted on Jul, 9 2013 @ 05:51 AM
It's beginning to look like I'll be hitch-hiking out of Vegas again.

Russia Today, which has to be regarded as somewhat of an "organ of the state", has reported Snowdon's interview with Der Spiegel, in which he said that Germany was spying on its citizens too and now RT are saying that Snowdon would be given asylum in Venezuela, Nicaragua or Bolivia and that it just remains to decide travel arrangements.

I'm assuming that something like this will happen. It would surprise me greatly if RT were not in the loop on this one. I can only say that Russia's leaders must have decided that their biggest gain in the situation comes from letting Snowdon go, despite the annoyance this will produce in the United States.

Needless to say, Snowdon's troubles are nowhere near over, absent a radical shift in American attitudes to "whistle blowers".

Russia's position in this situation is very ambiguous. By no means have they become the standard bearer of freedom, but they might just have passed the baton of techno-totalitarianism to America in full view of the world.

Points on the board for Russia.

posted on Jul, 12 2013 @ 10:07 AM
It ain't over 'til it's over. Snowdon has asked for political asylum in Russia. Has he been given an offer he can't refuse?

edit on 12-7-2013 by ipsedixit because: (no reason given)

posted on Jul, 12 2013 @ 10:16 AM
Fake leaker ?

You are fake poster who doesnt know to write the name of a hero correctly.

This is newest statement from Edward Snowden

Hello. My name is Ed Snowden. A little over one month ago, I had family, a home in paradise, and I lived in great comfort. I also had the capability without any warrant to search for, seize, and read your communications. Anyone’s communications at any time. That is the power to change people’s fates.

It is also a serious violation of the law. The 4th and 5th Amendments to the Constitution of my country, Article 12 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and numerous statutes and treaties forbid such systems of massive, pervasive surveillance. While the US Constitution marks these programs as illegal, my government argues that secret court rulings, which the world is not permitted to see, somehow legitimize an illegal affair. These rulings simply corrupt the most basic notion of justice – that it must be seen to be done. The immoral cannot be made moral through the use of secret law.

I believe in the principle declared at Nuremberg in 1945: "Individuals have international duties which transcend the national obligations of obedience. Therefore individual citizens have the duty to violate domestic laws to prevent crimes against peace and humanity from occurring."

Accordingly, I did what I believed right and began a campaign to correct this wrongdoing. I did not seek to enrich myself. I did not seek to sell US secrets. I did not partner with any foreign government to guarantee my safety. Instead, I took what I knew to the public, so what affects all of us can be discussed by all of us in the light of day, and I asked the world for justice.

That moral decision to tell the public about spying that affects all of us has been costly, but it was the right thing to do and I have no regrets.

Since that time, the government and intelligence services of the United States of America have attempted to make an example of me, a warning to all others who might speak out as I have. I have been made stateless and hounded for my act of political expression. The United States Government has placed me on no-fly lists. It demanded Hong Kong return me outside of the framework of its laws, in direct violation of the principle of non-refoulement – the Law of Nations. It has threatened with sanctions countries who would stand up for my human rights and the UN asylum system. It has even taken the unprecedented step of ordering military allies to ground a Latin American president’s plane in search for a political refugee. These dangerous escalations represent a threat not just to the dignity of Latin America, but to the basic rights shared by every person, every nation, to live free from persecution, and to seek and enjoy asylum.

Yet even in the face of this historically disproportionate aggression, countries around the world have offered support and asylum. These nations, including Russia, Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, and Ecuador have my gratitude and respect for being the first to stand against human rights violations carried out by the powerful rather than the powerless. By refusing to compromise their principles in the face of intimidation, they have earned the respect of the world. It is my intention to travel to each of these countries to extend my personal thanks to their people and leaders.

I announce today my formal acceptance of all offers of support or asylum I have been extended and all others that may be offered in the future. With, for example, the grant of asylum provided by Venezuela’s President Maduro, my asylee status is now formal, and no state has a basis by which to limit or interfere with my right to enjoy that asylum. As we have seen, however, some governments in Western European and North American states have demonstrated a willingness to act outside the law, and this behavior persists today. This unlawful threat makes it impossible for me to travel to Latin America and enjoy the asylum granted there in accordance with our shared rights.

This willingness by powerful states to act extra-legally represents a threat to all of us, and must not be allowed to succeed. Accordingly, I ask for your assistance in requesting guarantees of safe passage from the relevant nations in securing my travel to Latin America, as well as requesting asylum in Russia until such time as these states accede to law and my legal travel is permitted. I will be submitting my request to Russia today, and hope it will be accepted favorably.

If you have any questions, I will answer what I can.

Thank you.
edit on 12-7-2013 by xavi1000 because: (no reason given)

posted on Jul, 12 2013 @ 10:22 AM
That isn't a fair deal. I think Russia should also get thirty big mac combos, twenty cases of good Tennessee whiskey, and maybe some good homemade southern fried chicken.
(I'm thinking) Maybe some good Trenary Toast might help clench the deal also.
edit on 12-7-2013 by rickymouse because: (no reason given)

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