Egypt and potential to spark WWIII

We are now witnessing what appears to be a military coup in Egypt.

I, for one, feel that perhaps a military junta ruling that country is a better scenario -- especially for Israel -- than the Muslim Brotherhood. That said, I caution that this situation could -- I EMPHASIZE COULD -- lead to a uncontrolled conflagration that may have the hallmarks of WWIII.

The worry is the Suez Canal. If internal Egyptian violence spirals into a civil war, the military may fear influence (much like is happening in Syria) from outside forces, particularly al Qaeda adherents who will try and infiltrate the country to fight for the Brotherhood. To prevent this, the military could block the canal to restrict access to Egyptian territory.

And that will spark an oil crisis.

We're already seeing the markets start to factor in this anxiety with the price of oil jumping in a matter of hours.

If the Suez is blocked, there is a strong likelihood of outside military response - most likely US. And if China or Russia were to throw in support with the Egyptian military (as Obama, for better or worse, has supported Prez Morsi), that could throw the worlds' superpowers into a possible naval standoff in the canal.

Add to that the usual meddling of Iranian intelligence, and you could have a crock pot filled with disaster.

Granted we have made it through countless potential Mideast conflict sparks since 9/11 -- including the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Let's hope this is just another one of those come and go conflicts.

Originally posted by behindthescenes
We are now witnessing what appears to be a military coup in Egypt.

I, for one, feel that perhaps a military junta ruling that country is a better scenario -- especially for Israel -- than the Muslim Brotherhood. That said, I caution that this situation could -- I EMPHASIZE COULD -- lead to a uncontrolled conflagration that may have the hallmarks of WWIII.

The worry is the Suez Canal. If internal Egyptian violence spirals into a civil war, the military may fear influence (much like is happening in Syria) from outside forces, particularly al Qaeda adherents who will try and infiltrate the country to fight for the Brotherhood. To prevent this, the military could block the canal to restrict access to Egyptian territory.

And that will spark an oil crisis.

We're already seeing the markets start to factor in this anxiety with the price of oil jumping in a matter of hours.

If the Suez is blocked, there is a strong likelihood of outside military response - most likely US. And if China or Russia were to throw in support with the Egyptian military (as Obama, for better or worse, has supported Prez Morsi), that could throw the worlds' superpowers into a possible naval standoff in the canal.

Add to that the usual meddling of Iranian intelligence, and you could have a crock pot filled with disaster.

Granted we have made it through countless potential Mideast conflict sparks since 9/11 -- including the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Let's hope this is just another one of those come and go conflicts.

Good thread about a bad thought-- and bumped just on the point's merit.
I tend to gravitate toward more MB covert activity; but not the kind that would
cause the whole apple cart to come over. It's not their style-- unless
somebody way up there calls it time to pull the plug. But I don't think so yet.
Maybe Morsi was too premature and polished a bum to be installed into a
country with as high a percentage of pragmatists. But there are alternatives,,,

reply to post by behindthescenes


I don't think the Muslim Brotherhood or Al Qaeda are going to take this lying down.

I'm waiting for them to turn to Erdogan for advice, considering he's been trying to do the same thing as Morsi, but with more patience and caution.

Erdogan met with top Hamas officials on June 18th and he had a visit scheduled to Gaza for July 5th.

I'm waiting now to see how he reacts and where he goes.

They're all looking to Erdogan for what to do next, I assure you.

reply to post by behindthescenes


Bump I'd like to see where this thread goes. It's prolly just me but to see a coup a day prior to America's 4th of July is a little coincidental... Prolly all it is and me looking at the flow of events to much, either way ~ time will tell.

reply to post by sulaw


It seems to me that the obozo administration of the US (not the US citizens) have been backing the muslim brotherhood and the CIA alqueda in Egypt and Syria - and that Erdogan in Turkey (a NATO country) was trying to head into a secular sharia state for Turkey and has been rebuffed by the Turkish people.

This is going to be an interesting few weeks........

reply to post by Happy1


In only looks that way in the MSM. You actually have it backwards.

The Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaeda are working together to try and spread "Political Islam" throughout the Middle East, while the U.S. would rather stop it. The U.S. has given money to Egypt's military, but they did not support Morsi, although they tried to make it look like they were neutral after making fools of themselves by asking Mubarak to step down in the first place. Egypt's military is now getting rid of Morsi.

America is no longer ignorant about Erdogan. They know he's up to the same sly game that Morsi was up to.

They're trying to help Syria without promoting the Muslim Brotherhood, but whether or not they're capable of doing it and accomplishing anything is another story. The Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaeda want to make Syria a Sunni Muslim controlled state versus a Shi'ite controlled state. The U.S. is trying to stop bloodshed while hoping that it doesn't become another Islamic State.

I think that the meddling in the Middle East by the UK & USA over the last 3 years will come back to haunt us, Cameron knows nothing of world events in his life, and all he has done the last 3 years is pour petrol onto a fire, the UK have 4 million Anti British Muslims within it ready to jump on any event that could make Britain a dangerous place to be, why? because Middle East people may want to teach us a lesson for what we have done the last 3 years.

reply to post by Alternative4u


Unfortunately, we're at a point in time in history where it's impossible not to interfere in everyone's business to some degree.

We're all tied too close together through shared interests.

Globalization is what's biting everyone in the butt! It's our best friend AND our worst enemy! LOL!

reply to post by behindthescenes

The worry is the Suez Canal. If internal Egyptian violence spirals into a civil war, the military may fear influence (much like is happening in Syria) from outside forces, particularly al Qaeda adherents who will try and infiltrate the country to fight for the Brotherhood. To prevent this, the military could block the canal to restrict access to Egyptian territory.

And that will spark an oil crisis.

I believe situations as you described are exactly why US has troops in the area.

Anything could happen. There are people and assets in place to ensure the canal stays open, and I’m sure there are many monitoring what goes through.

S&F

To prevent this, the military could block the canal to restrict access to Egyptian territory.

If so, there are international precedents that would allow other military intervention to keep the flow of trade going. The leaders of Egypt would find themselves suddenly with a LOT of powerful enemies, eventual loss of the canal, etc.

I dont thionk there is much potential at all for the Egypt situation to spark WWIII. Not much potential at all.

Well, there's not a blockade per se, but Egypt's military calling Suez a "state of emergency" isn't a good sign at all. It caused oil to surge by 3 dollars a barrel in trading today.

I know some people don't like Debka, but it's worth a consideration anyway...

A new Egyptian crisis arena: the Egyptian and Israeli armies Friday, July 5, raised their alert levels on either side of the Sinai border after the Muslim Brotherhood declared Sinai its center of revolt and revenge for the Egyptian army’s ouster of Mohamed Morsi as president Wednesday, July 3.

Following a multiple Islamist attack in northern Sinai, the Egyptian army went on high alert in the Suez and North Sinai provinces. The Sinai border crossings to the Gaza Strip and Israel were closed. The army spokesman in Cairo denied declaring an emergency – only a heightened alert.

Israel has imposed a blackout on news from this tense region, but DEBKAfile reports reinforcements were sent in Friday to boost the IDF units standing ready along the Egyptian border.

Egyptian forces also shut down all three underground passages running from the mainland to Sinai under the Suez Canal. Egypt’s Third Army was deployed to secure them, under the command of Maj. Gen. Osama Askar.

Further measures imposed for guarding Suez Canal cargo and oil shipping against possible rocket fire from central Sinai included the stationing along its banks of Patriot anti-missile batteries and anti-air weapons systems, according to DEBKAfile’s military sources.

www.debka.com...

The last thing we need is another war, never mind a world war.

Some of the Muslim extremists are totally nuts and just want to take over the world with jihad.

World War III = War on Terrorism.

We've been living in it/supporting it blindingly since 9/11 2001

reply to post by Deetermined


"Al Qaeda" does'nt actually exist, fact is, it's just a name given to a wide range of numerous Islamic militant groups who don't often see eye to eye with each other. So please, when anyone uses the name "Al Qaeda" can you be alot more specific as to which group you are refering to!

reply to post by bluemirage5


Al Qaeda does exist. Go look for the video where Al-Zawahri tells the Muslim Brotherhood (right around 9/11/12) to stop dragging their feet on spreading Political Islam.

That's why Morsi moved as fast as he did, which ultimately got him ousted. If he moved as slow as Erdogan, it wouldn't have been as noticeable, but Erdogan's trying to do the same thing.

Obviously, the Suez canal is a vital strategic interest, not just to the USA but to much of the world. Its closure would be disastrous to many of the worlds economies. The Egyptian army would make it their highest priority to keep it open, not to mention NATO. It would be in no countries best interests for it to close. Could a regional conflict occur? Yes, but not likely anything compared to an all out war among superpowers.